Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards

[Harry]

Estofex were never going to issue a level 1 for today as no severe "convective" weather is expected, although clearly there is a flood risk today due to the slow moving nature of showers and storms that do develop. With little or no wind shear I would expect to see thundery cells lose intensity and then regain intensity within quite short timescales. Much like yesterday, any convergence zones should help with identifying areas more at risk although generally the showers, and associated thunder threat, will be far more widespread today than yesterday with an area of low pressure sitting right over the top of us.

 

I think thunderstorms will be fairly numerous today and those that see them could be under them for some time, possibly long enough to witness the dying and strengthening cycle. This also means that other places may see no thundery activity at all whereas there is localised flooding just down the road.

 

Picking an area most at risk today is very difficult and I think anywhere south of Manchester to Hull is in with a chance. A very complicated picture and to be quite honest I am unsure of the best place, which does not help with me wanting to storm chase this afternoon.  

 

You want to see the wording of the MetCheck weather watch which nearly made my eyeballs fall out....

 

Thu 1 May : 22:00 BST (13hrs remaining)

Weather Watch For Heavy Local Thunderstorms 

#LowTheresa will cross from the West slowly during the course of Thursday allowing significant convective development across parts of Wales, Midlands, W England and later SE England. 

Heavy, slow moving and thundery downpours of rain and will affect areas leading to the increased risk of flash flooding and dangerous driving conditions. 

There also remains a low to moderate risk of F1-F2 tornadoes across the Midlands and SE England from 3pm to 8pm on Thursday. 

Some areas could see between 40-50mm of rainfall, especially across higher ground of Wales and later West England and SE England.

 

:rofl:

[Dancerwithwings]

You want to see the wording of the MetCheck weather watch which nearly made my eyeballs fall out....

 

Thu 1 May : 22:00 BST (13hrs remaining)

Weather Watch For Heavy Local Thunderstorms 

#LowTheresa will cross from the West slowly during the course of Thursday allowing significant convective development across parts of Wales, Midlands, W England and later SE England. 

Heavy, slow moving and thundery downpours of rain and will affect areas leading to the increased risk of flash flooding and dangerous driving conditions. 

There also remains a low to moderate risk of F1-F2 tornadoes across the Midlands and SE England from 3pm to 8pm on Thursday. 

Some areas could see between 40-50mm of rainfall, especially across higher ground of Wales and later West England and SE England.

 

:rofl:

 

OTT..... http://www.metcheck.com/UK/warnings.asp

[Jane Louise]

Don't doubt them too much Harry lol I got my thunderstorm when they issued a watch for cheltenham  a couple weeks back . I must admit though the tornado risk is  going a bit overboard is it not !

 

Ok then I shall be closing this thread in a mo and starting a new thread soon.

[Jane Louise]

Ok, time to pop over here for a new thread. 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80164-convective-storm-discussion-1st-may-2014-onwards/

 

Locking this one now.