Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards

[MP-R]

Quite a heavy cell crossing to my south at the moment in the direction of Weston-super-Mare. Grew pretty quickly and skies are black in that direction. 

[Tom Jarvis]

Got towers going up here hope one will build into a nice cell

[Mapantz]

Unfortunately the 12z GFS has started to move the risk area for tomorrow eastwards. Places such as the SE and EA still in with a shout but I expect by the morning it will be all across the waters.

General consensus puts slow moving showers anywhere in and East of Staffordshire down to Hampshire, certainly looking more lively tomorrow. Edited April 24, 2014 by Mapantz

[poseidon]

Unfortunately the 12z GFS has started to move the risk area for tomorrow eastwards. Places such as the SE and EA still in with a shout but I expect by the morning it will be all across the waters.

Another gfs last minute downgrade? At least the ukmo is now talking about heavy thundery showers. Edited April 24, 2014 by poseidon

[Panayiotis]

Yep nice towering clouds developing over S.England on radar! Moving N/NW...

Edited April 24, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Supacell]

Shower growing quite rapidly on the V6 radar almost following the A1 between Newark and Grantham.

 

EDIT: And it's dying again

Edited April 24, 2014 by Supacell

[dragon falls]

Gone dark here now in Cardiff wonder if it will cross the Bristol channel to here was a nice afternoon earlier

[poseidon]

Got towers going up here hope one will build into a nice cell

Same, north of here. Can see them popping up on the radar also.

[dragon falls]

Raining here now getting heavier sky is very dark

[MP-R]

Showers looking like they're moving either side of here once again. Another heavy one to the east of here taking a more NW track.

[Eskimo]

Tomorrow evening looking interesting!

 

[Daniel*]

Potent cell just departed from Normandy, Crossing the channel.

Binoculars at the ready! It it survives IOW is a good bet, nothing new there.

[shaky]

Tomorrow evening looking interesting!

 

nmmuk-1-31-0.png

that batch across the south east looks interesting!might skirt up through east anglia and east midlands later on in the night giving a light show!!fingers crossed!!

[Mokidugway]

Sferics on near continent looks like an army massing for an invasion !!!......

[Andy Bown]

I wonder what will develop tomorrow morning. The graphics on the BBC National and local forecasts showed low cloud advancing from the English Channel overnight with scattered showers at dawn then quickly developing into widespread showers around 07.00-09.00 across East Somerset/Bristol and everywhere E/SE of there.

 

Ian Fergusson spoke of a plume of moist air interacting with a trough to enable showers to develop and it is of note to me that things are predicted to form soon after sunrise as that is something I have noted on previous occasions.

 

I actually hope that low cloud doesn't materialise as the showers may well by quite high based, with a lot of mid level convection and AltCas which is always an interesting sky to watch whether things turn thundery or not.

[Tom Jarvis]

Will it be worth it to go out tomorrow afternoon after college to chase the storms in my area??

[poseidon]

Some of those few showers have turned out reasonably potent with one actually producing a sferic west of Cambridge.

[ChezWeather]

Showers all seem to be dying now!

 

Ah well, fingers crossed for Friday afternoon! 

[legritter]

Some action kicking off over the channel ,a hard one to call but hope for some ,lets hope we are in the firing line .we had one or two isolated cells develope today  over mendip but only large spots ,looks like a rash of tiny action breaking out ahead of main rain area now heading north and n/west .cheers .

[Nick F]

Worth keeping an eye on the storms over Normandy, if you can be bothered to stay up. Radar loop a bit deceptive perhaps, as steering winds (500mb) are southerly, ECM takes the area of rain/storms north too. GFS bit more hesitant. 

Edited April 24, 2014 by Nick F

[MP-R]

So long as winds stay as they are that clump of storms in Normandy has the West Country's name on it... could take until May for them to arrive though, that is if they survive the Channel as thunderstorms rather than just rain.

 

Did notice a lot of plume-type cloud around this evening after a largely normal day cloudwise.

[Tom Jarvis]

Anyone chasing in the se tomorrow

[Convective]

Some good ones on the Dusseldorf Airport webcams. This certainly tests your reaction time against the Print Screen button 

 

[Supacell]

Anyone chasing in the se tomorrow

 

If things look good I will be chasing after work, although due to my location I will more than likely concentrate to the north of London rather than SE of it.

[Tom Jarvis]

I think I'll drive down towards the coast near Hastings and intercept them as they come ashore