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Ireland Regional Weather Chat


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Dunno geoffw, he was last online September 2013. Might just be too busy, ya never know!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    No change for here then, Paul.

     

     

    Some pretty heavy showers already today, would be surprised to hear a few rumbles soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    A surprise 17.5C here today, didn't much feel like it in the breeze though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    A summery outlook for mid next week… Yes please!

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    Posted
  • Location: limavady N.I 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy
  • Location: limavady N.I 23m ASL

    as long as the nw200 isn't a washout again lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    After plenty of heavy showers yesterday some last night and this mornlng today turned into a decent enough day with sunny spells. Fairly cool out in the wind,max temp 14.2c,currently 13.6c.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    It felt pretty warm for the hour that the sun came out today. Anyone hit 20C yet?

     

    I'll be posting up a summer forecast in the next few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

    Tonight I was visited by a cockchafer for the first time . I wonder how it got it's name . Like a date with wings and a deep deep vibe Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    ^^^Cool!

     

    Warmest day of the year so far for many places today. Already up to 17.1C here, but quite a lot of cloud about.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    Recorded my first 20c of the yr today depite a lack of of much sunshine. 20.2c to be exact.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Beat you by 0.1C, sundog!

     

    It gradually brightened up during the day here with mostly clear skies at the moment. Hopefully we can threaten 21C tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Maxed out at 20.0C today. Much more sunshine than yesterday, but quite hazy. Some nice iridescent clouds about, tried taking a pic with my phone but I doubt it has the quality to capture the colour well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    21.2C max today, suspect that mightn't be trumped for a little while. Could be quite a bit of rain tomorrow...

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    Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

    still not quite reached 20'c here .. but the wildlife gets more 'southern' .. having a dawn chorus that ends at dark was not enough .. 2 new additions .. I believe they are male reed warblers .. and they sing without a break for the rest of the night !

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Here's the summer forecast, using recent values, trends and some projections of different variables.

     

    The variables and criteria used to find the most analogous years to this one are listed below

     

    AO: Years with the 6 months from November to April averaging between 0.2 and 1.4, with moderate to high month to month variability.

    (matching years, 1967, 1973, 1982, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2012)

     

    NAO:Years with the 6 months from November to April averaging between 0.2 and 1.3, with low to moderate month to month variability

    (1954, 1967, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1980, 1991, 1992, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2012)

     

    PDOJanuary to May average of greater than 0.4

    (1958, 1970, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010)

     

    AMO:Years with the 6 months from November to April averaging between -0.17 and +0.23

    (1951, 1952, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1969, 1970, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)

     

    MEIMarch to July average of between 0.1 and 1.5

    (1953, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1965, 1966, 1969, 1972, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2012)

     

    Snow Cover: Negative Eurasian snow cover anomaly, Eurasian -ve anomaly larger than North American -ve anomaly (if NA anomaly is -ve), and a -ve northern hemisphere anomaly.

    (1968, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2007, 2008, 2012)

     

    Solar ActivityYears with an average monthly sun spot count between 30 and 90

    (1951, 1952, 1955, 1961, 1962, 1966, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1983, 1984, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013)

     

    QBOYears with the 6 months from November to April averaging greater than 5 and greater than the April value

    (1958, 1960, 1962, 1967, 1972, 1981, 1986, 1988, 2000, 2007, 2009)

     
    So out of the 8 criteria, these were the best matching years
     
    2012 with 6 matches
    2004, 1993, 1992 and 1991 with 5 matches.
     
    With those years, lets have a look at the summer composites and forecasts.
     
    JUNE
    Posted Image
     
    It looks most likely that lower than normal pressure will dominate over the British Isles, stretching from Newfoundland into Scandinavia. This could lead to an increase in northerly orientated winds, bring some cooler weather to all areas, with an increase in precipitation also.
    With a strong signal for lower pressure to our south west, and average pressure over Iberia, the opportunity for warm southerlies will still remain.
     
    Ireland Precipitation: Chances of below, close to and above average values are 20%, 35%, 45%
    Ireland Temperature:Chances of below, close to and above average values are 35%, 35%, 30%
     
     
    JULY
     
    Posted Image
     
    A very similar pattern to June, but with some important differences. Lower pressure still looks most likely, but with higher pressure just to our south, the chances of a north/south split are increased. As it is though, an increased likelihood of northerly orientated winds and lower pressure will likely result in periods of below average temperatures and increased rainfall.
     
    Ireland Precipitation: Chances of below, close to and above average values are 25%, 35%, 40%
    Ireland Temperature:Chances of below, close to and above average values are 40%, 35%, 25%

     

     

    AUGUST

     

    Posted Image

     

    August show another slight shift in pattern, with low to our west and higher pressure to the east. This opens the door for mild/warm southerlies, but also the potential for some very wet weather, especially further west. In this situation, eastern areas will likely do best for warmth and dry weather. Daytime warmth may well be dictated by breaks from the cloud the influence of higher pressure over the continent pushing west. Where rain and cloud remain, temperature may remain suppressed, especially during the day.

     

    Ireland Precipitation: Chances of below, close to and above average values are 20%, 25%, 55% (wettest further west)
    Ireland Temperature:Chances of below, close to and above average values are 35%, 35%, 30% (coolest further west)
     
     
    OVERALL
     
    Unfortunately, this method of forecasting shows a wet summer is most likely, with average or slightly below average temperatures favoured. August shows the most potential for warmth, but also for some very heavy precip totals.
     
    I'll update this once each month, as the latest data becomes available. Any suggestions, constructive criticisms and/or error spotting is welcomed!
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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    Good luck with your forecast BFTV. Hope it turns out though not as wet as your method of forecasting shows,personnally i think we will have a mixed summer overall.

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    Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

    Cheers BFTV ... but I just hope you are as far out as you were last winter !

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    Posted
  • Location: Dungiven, Derry, N. Ireland. 81m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Dungiven, Derry, N. Ireland. 81m asl.

    Thunder, lightning, rain and hail here at the minute!

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    Posted
  • Location: limavady N.I 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy
  • Location: limavady N.I 23m ASL

    None here in Portstewart bit we do have heavy rain

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Charts looked promising for the bank holiday weekend a few days ago, pure dreadful now!!! think I'll leave the caravan where it is for the moment...

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