Ireland Regional Weather Chat

[A.J]

please carry on here

 

 

old thread here ------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79089-ireland-regional-weather-discussion-14114-21z/page-20

[geoffw]

where has the watcher gone? he's been absent for a year

[BornFromTheVoid]

Dunno geoffw, he was last online September 2013. Might just be too busy, ya never know!

Edited May 2, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[Paul]

We have some proposed new regions for the regional discussions during the summer and autumn months - please take a look at let us know your views.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80194-regional-threads-changes-for-summer/?p=2965003

[BornFromTheVoid]

No change for here then, Paul.

 

 

Some pretty heavy showers already today, would be surprised to hear a few rumbles soon.

[Paul]

No, as you were for the time being - can see how it goes and change if needs be.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A surprise 17.5C here today, didn't much feel like it in the breeze though.

[Rocheydub]

A summery outlook for mid next week… Yes please!

[gary1365]

as long as the nw200 isn't a washout again lol

[sundog]

After plenty of heavy showers yesterday some last night and this mornlng today turned into a decent enough day with sunny spells. Fairly cool out in the wind,max temp 14.2c,currently 13.6c.

[BornFromTheVoid]

It felt pretty warm for the hour that the sun came out today. Anyone hit 20C yet?

 

I'll be posting up a summer forecast in the next few days.

[be cause]

Tonight I was visited by a cockchafer for the first time . I wonder how it got it's name . Like a date with wings and a deep deep vibe . 

[BornFromTheVoid]

^^^Cool!

 

Warmest day of the year so far for many places today. Already up to 17.1C here, but quite a lot of cloud about.

[sundog]

Recorded my first 20c of the yr today depite a lack of of much sunshine. 20.2c to be exact.

Edited May 15, 2014 by sundog

[BornFromTheVoid]

Beat you by 0.1C, sundog!

 

It gradually brightened up during the day here with mostly clear skies at the moment. Hopefully we can threaten 21C tomorrow.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Maxed out at 20.0C today. Much more sunshine than yesterday, but quite hazy. Some nice iridescent clouds about, tried taking a pic with my phone but I doubt it has the quality to capture the colour well.

[BornFromTheVoid]

21.2C max today, suspect that mightn't be trumped for a little while. Could be quite a bit of rain tomorrow...

[be cause]

still not quite reached 20'c here .. but the wildlife gets more 'southern' .. having a dawn chorus that ends at dark was not enough .. 2 new additions .. I believe they are male reed warblers .. and they sing without a break for the rest of the night !

[mountain shadow]

Rain rain rain rain...never stops.

 

A very poor May for dry weather, can't even get my grass cut.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the summer forecast, using recent values, trends and some projections of different variables.

 

The variables and criteria used to find the most analogous years to this one are listed below

 

AO: Years with the 6 months from November to April averaging between 0.2 and 1.4, with moderate to high month to month variability.

(matching years, 1967, 1973, 1982, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2012)

 

NAO:Years with the 6 months from November to April averaging between 0.2 and 1.3, with low to moderate month to month variability

(1954, 1967, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1980, 1991, 1992, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2012)

 

PDO: January to May average of greater than 0.4

(1958, 1970, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010)

 

AMO:Years with the 6 months from November to April averaging between -0.17 and +0.23

(1951, 1952, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1969, 1970, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)

 

MEI: March to July average of between 0.1 and 1.5

(1953, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1965, 1966, 1969, 1972, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2012)

 

Snow Cover: Negative Eurasian snow cover anomaly, Eurasian -ve anomaly larger than North American -ve anomaly (if NA anomaly is -ve), and a -ve northern hemisphere anomaly.

(1968, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2007, 2008, 2012)

 

Solar Activity: Years with an average monthly sun spot count between 30 and 90

(1951, 1952, 1955, 1961, 1962, 1966, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1983, 1984, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013)

 

QBO: Years with the 6 months from November to April averaging greater than 5 and greater than the April value

(1958, 1960, 1962, 1967, 1972, 1981, 1986, 1988, 2000, 2007, 2009)

 

So out of the 8 criteria, these were the best matching years

 

2012 with 6 matches

2004, 1993, 1992 and 1991 with 5 matches.

 

With those years, lets have a look at the summer composites and forecasts.

 

JUNE

 

It looks most likely that lower than normal pressure will dominate over the British Isles, stretching from Newfoundland into Scandinavia. This could lead to an increase in northerly orientated winds, bring some cooler weather to all areas, with an increase in precipitation also.

With a strong signal for lower pressure to our south west, and average pressure over Iberia, the opportunity for warm southerlies will still remain.

 

Ireland Precipitation: Chances of below, close to and above average values are 20%, 35%, 45%

Ireland Temperature:Chances of below, close to and above average values are 35%, 35%, 30%

 

 

JULY

 

 

A very similar pattern to June, but with some important differences. Lower pressure still looks most likely, but with higher pressure just to our south, the chances of a north/south split are increased. As it is though, an increased likelihood of northerly orientated winds and lower pressure will likely result in periods of below average temperatures and increased rainfall.

 

Ireland Precipitation: Chances of below, close to and above average values are 25%, 35%, 40%

Ireland Temperature:Chances of below, close to and above average values are 40%, 35%, 25%

 

 

AUGUST

 

 

August show another slight shift in pattern, with low to our west and higher pressure to the east. This opens the door for mild/warm southerlies, but also the potential for some very wet weather, especially further west. In this situation, eastern areas will likely do best for warmth and dry weather. Daytime warmth may well be dictated by breaks from the cloud the influence of higher pressure over the continent pushing west. Where rain and cloud remain, temperature may remain suppressed, especially during the day.

 

Ireland Precipitation: Chances of below, close to and above average values are 20%, 25%, 55% (wettest further west)

Ireland Temperature:Chances of below, close to and above average values are 35%, 35%, 30% (coolest further west)

 

 

OVERALL

 

Unfortunately, this method of forecasting shows a wet summer is most likely, with average or slightly below average temperatures favoured. August shows the most potential for warmth, but also for some very heavy precip totals.

 

I'll update this once each month, as the latest data becomes available. Any suggestions, constructive criticisms and/or error spotting is welcomed!

[sundog]

Good luck with your forecast BFTV. Hope it turns out though not as wet as your method of forecasting shows,personnally i think we will have a mixed summer overall.

[be cause]

Cheers BFTV ... but I just hope you are as far out as you were last winter !

[Juuyoku]

Thunder, lightning, rain and hail here at the minute!

[gary1365]

None here in Portstewart bit we do have heavy rain

[Rocheydub]

Charts looked promising for the bank holiday weekend a few days ago, pure dreadful now!!! think I'll leave the caravan where it is for the moment...