Glastonbury Wed 25 to Sun 29 June 2014

[William of Walworth]

Not allowing myself to be downhearted by the above, as we all know, it's far too soon yet for us to fear that it's nailed on to become very unsettled for the Fest. Changes in synoptic positioning/detail can and will happen ... the possibility of an earlier High Pressure based period for the previous week (as shown on some of today's models, not all) could perhaps intensify and hang around for longer. Fingers crossed.

 

I appreciate J10 is only recording current output/trends as they currently stand.

[J10]

Not allowing myself to be downhearted by the above, as we all know, it's far too soon yet for us to fear that it's nailed on to become very unsettled for the Fest. Changes in synoptic positioning/detail can and will happen ... the possibility of an earlier High Pressure based period for the previous week (as shown on some of today's models, not all) could perhaps intensify and hang around for longer. Fingers crossed.

 

I appreciate J10 is only recording current output/trends as they currently stand.

 

Indeed the roller-coaster is only just starting.

 

 

 

The 6-10 day trend show the upper ridge over the UK, and the 8-14 day chart, which runs to 23 June still shows the upper ridge close to the UK.

 

The big question atm is can the settled (ish weather) hold for Glastonbury, perhaps tomorrow will indicate something different.

 

Next Update tomorrow evening, Next Blog, on Wednesday evening.

Edited June 9, 2014 by J10

[William of Walworth]

Thanks for all this work, its very much much appreciated.

[J10]

Maybe at last we can detect a pattern, the next few weeks in the run up to Glastonbury now look as if they will be mostly settled and dry, according to upper charts and ensemble forecasts.

 

from the Met Office - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcn4fph7r

 

and

UK Outlook for Sunday 15 Jun 2014 to Tuesday 24 Jun 2014:

High pressure tends to dominate throughout the period, with variable but often large amounts of cloud across the UK. The best of the sunshine will tend to be in sheltered southern parts, where it will also be mainly dry. Outbreaks of rain in the north and northwest of the UK will make slow progress southwards through next week, but the rain will tend to become very light and patchy as it crosses the UK, with little, if any, rain in the south and southwest of the country. Temperatures will tend to be above average at first in sheltered central and southern areas, but returning to nearer normal through the week, and feeling rather cool at times in the cloudier north and northwest.

 

and

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 25 Jun 2014 to Wednesday 9 Jul 2014:

Through the latter part of June and into early July, there are indications that conditions may turn a little more unsettled, particularly across northwestern parts of the UK, with the best of the drier and brighter conditions towards the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be around average for eastern areas, and given the time of year, feeling warm in the sunshine, however temperatures may be a little below average in more unsettled northwestern areas.

 

Yesterdays' GFS runs indicated a wet start to the Glastonbury festival. What does today suggest.

 

06Hz GFS

 

 

In Summary a wet unsettled to the festival.

 

06Hz GEFS

 

 

Pressure is slowly weakening, indicating a return to less settled conditions.

 

 

But the above suggests that the situation over the UK as a whole is a bit of an outlier.

 

12Hz GFS

 

 

A more settled build up to the festival, and rather better charts than yesterday.

 

12Hz GEFS

 

 

Pressure is set to rise in the new few days, and then slowly fall (on average) to around 1020mb, and stay there until the start of the festival period, with an increased variance in outcomes around the festival period.

 

Most ensembles are relatively dry around the festival, although some do show some rainfall.

 

Summary

 

A bit better than yesterday, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty, but it does look as if the weeks running up to Glastonbury itself will be drier than last, year, as for the festival itself that is a long way off.

 

Next Update - NOAA 500mb Upper Charts this evening (about 10pm)

 

Next Blog - Tomorrow Evening around 7-8pm.

Edited June 10, 2014 by J10

[J10]

Latest NOAA update

 

Both show an upper ridge to the North West and over the UK, with the 6-10 day version showing the ridge having the biggest influence for the UK.

 

 

Left - Right 6-10 day, 8-14 day.

[PompeyFC]

cheers Jack - excellent job as usual, the 00z GFS is a cracker overnight for Wed-Fri but as we know this far out its not likely to verify

[J10]

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4763-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-6-issued-11-june/

 

the Latest Blog has been issued, and the current trend seems that the High pressure will not last until the festival, and a unsettled start to the festival is much likely.  So not as positive as yesterday.

[duggyfresh]

Oh dear. Let's hope for some improvement over the course of time!!?

[J10]

Oh dear. Let's hope for some improvement over the course of time!!?

 

Hope so, there is plenty of time for improvements.

 

 

Can I ask a favour from the nice people in this thread, can someone save the 06Hz Ensembles for Somerset tomorrow for Pressure, 850HPa Temps and Rainfall. and post the saved copy in here, to save 10 people doing it. Thanks in Advance,

[J10]

A glimmer of hope tonight.

 

Both the 6-10 day version and the 8-14 day version, keeps an upper ridge over the UK.

 

[J10]

No Blog today but a summary on today's charts and a look to see if they are the right direction.

 

GFS Operational Runs

 

Two runs posted today the 06Hz and the 12Hz,

 

The 06Hz run breaks down the HP before the festival, but the HP builds back in and looking relatively decent. (shown 06hz to 22,25,28 June respectively)

 

The 12Hz keeps the HP a bit longer, an unsettled start on the Wednesday with rain from the South West, but a little drier for the weekend. (shown 12hz to 22,25,28 June respectively)

 

GFS Ensembles

 

Taken from the 00Hz and 12Hz run,I couldn't get the 06hz get unfortunately.

 

 

 

It seems clear that the High Pressure will end around the 21st, however some runs then go worse, and then recover in time for the festival, so while a completely dry festival is unlikely, not that many runs go for a washout, with more of a mix likely at the moment. Of course this can and will change over the next 13 days.

 

ECM

 

 

The ECM is out, and shows High pressure lasting to the 22 June (end of run).

 

Summary

 

Rather mixed, not that much change from yesterday, the NOAA upper charts update will follow later.

Edited June 12, 2014 by J10

[knocker]

I was wondering about the ECM ops run J. It's been gradually eroding the warm air over Greenland and weakening the  HP just to the west so how will this evolve?

Edited June 12, 2014 by knocker

[J10]

 

Interesting to see that the ridge is still hanging on to western areas on the 8-14 day chart.

[J10]

I was wondering about the ECM ops run J. It's been gradually eroding the warm air over Greenland and weakening the  HP just to the west so how will this evolve?

 

Thanks for that, it will be interesting going forward to see how this compares to GFS.

[knocker]

Purely as a matter of interest the latest ECM monthly mean anomaly.

Edited June 13, 2014 by knocker

[William of Walworth]

Interesting and detailed analysis today from Tamara on the main Model Output discussion thread, her thinking is that the UK/near UK High is likely to hang around for quite some time.

 

<prays!>

[J10]

Tonight's update will come out in patches today, so the next update will be about 8.45pm (GFS ensembles charts)

 

GFS Operational Runs

 

00Hz

 

 

I don't normally include this run, but today it was very decent, and dry for the start of the festival but turning slightly unsettled over the weekend, but not bad.

 

06Hz

 

 

Rather unsettled with a westerly flow, and quite a damp festival period.

 

12Hz

 

 

High Pressure never too far away and a mostly dry festival period.

 

So 2 out of 3 quite positive runs today, better than recent days have suggested.

 

GFS Ensembles Charts

 

3 runs listed today 00Hz, 06Hz and 12Hz

 

The previous theme was for pressure to fall back to 1020mb by around the 21st, this has been brought forward to the 20th, however thereafter pressure edging back above 1020mb on average during the festival, this is something not previously seen.

 

 

There is a huge variation still in terms of ensemble rainfall predictions.

 

 

The ensembles looking that little bit better today.

 

ECM Operational Run

 

High Pressure holding on to the 23rd.

 

ECM Ensemble (00Hz and 12Hz)

 

Again with High Pressure close by around the 23rd.

 

NOAA Update

 

 

The Ridge is bang over the UK over the 6-10 day range, while a weakened ridge remains in situ for the 8-14 day range.

 

Very promising to me.

 

Overall

 

Small steps they say are important, and today's charts are a small step in the right direction.

 

Tomorrow's blog, will update on the developments over the past couple of days,

 

 

Edited June 13, 2014 by J10

[bazzaholtom]

I've spent the least 24 hours doing a sun dance and it may be just starting to give a glimmer of hope.

Thanks again jackone and others

[DevonStu]

Great news.....Thanks

[knocker]

Can you see this breaking down quickly J? Seems unlikely to me but then...............

Edited June 13, 2014 by knocker

[J10]

Can you see this breaking down quickly J? Seems unlikely to me but then...............

 

Things are looking a bit more promising than they were a day or so ago. Just wish that a few more of the Operation GFS charts were to agree. But if the upper charts keep being so consistent then surely they (the GFS charts) must do eventually.

[knocker]

Best ignore the 06z GFS and mark it, "will not verify".

[J10]

Best ignore the 06z GFS and mark it, "will not verify".

 

Cheers for the heads up on that, this has been noted in the blog.

 

The latest forecast blog has now been published, and a few things to be a bit happier about tonight.

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4772-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-7-issued-14-june/

[J10]

The latest forecast blog has now been published, and slightly more negative than last night.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4775-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-8-issued-15-june/

[DevonStu]

Not great news, but hey, I get to try out the rain coat I just bought on eBay