Glastonbury Wed 25 to Sun 29 June 2014

[DevonStu]

ooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa 5hit!!!!!!!!

Edited June 21, 2014 by DevonStu

[Julie Rose]

No, no, no - I really don't like this one at all 

[Polar Maritime]

The traditional wellie looks to be the saving grace again, Not a good outlook to say the least.

[J10]

In the event of ECM and UKMO being correct what does this mean on the ground.

 

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec Here is a  link to the likely precipitation from ECM. Moderate for a time on Thursday.

 

Here is the latest 5 day forecast From Met Office - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/events/glastonbury-festival#?tab=map&map=SignificantWeather&zoom=8&lon=-2.72&lat=51.15&fcTime=1403773200

 

dry through till Wednesday, some showery rain expected Thursday.

 

Latest Fax Charts from Met Office

 

Edited June 21, 2014 by J10

[duggyfresh]

It's looking like of these predictions of a totally dry festival have jinxed it.

 

Thanks a lot British Press.

[duggyfresh]

Fingers crossed for something a bit more positive today???

[J10]

Fingers crossed for something a bit more positive today???

 

A Bit delayed tonight, as I have been out enjoying the weather. I am aiming to publish around 8.30-9pm.

[dancing daisy]

Country file wasn't pretty. Fingers crossed this will be...

[Julie Rose]

I thought countryfile was pretty vague after Wednesday.  Lots of 'unsettled' and 'we don't know' and the worst - 'watch the forecast daily to see what the low pressure is going to do'

[dancing daisy]

I wasn't a fan of those graphics pointing straight to Pilton though. Looked more like a deluge than a light shower.

[J10]

Latest forecast now up

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4794-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-15-issued-22-june/

[Julie Rose]

But that was just an example, not a verbatim account of what is going to happen.  Fact is, no-one knows at this stage what the low pressure is going to do, or how strong the wind will be etc etc.  Still looking pretty good to me

[dancing daisy]

I like your positivity

I'm now off to pack my wellies, waterproofs and inflatable dinghy lol

[J10]

To me at the moment there are 4 patterns over covering the festival

 

Starting off mostly settled

Frontal rain pushing through from the west, most likely Thursday afternoon / evening.

Showery rain as with Low pressure and SW winds, for a time, probably Friday and possibly for a time Saturday

Steadily improving with Low pressure edging away and highish pressure nudging back in for the rest of the weekend.

 

A bit more on rainfall from ECM - taken from the Icelandic Weather Centre -

 

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

 

Wednesday - Dry

 

 

Thursday - Rain edging in - note slower than the UKMO model suggests

 

 

Friday - Some beefy showers for a time

 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2014 by J10

[duggyfresh]

Yep could be, and has been, worse.

[J10]

Yep could be, and has been, worse.

 

Indeed I think conditions may well be similar to last year.

[duggyfresh]

Indeed I think conditions may well be similar to last year.

 

I can certainly live with that!

[Zippy]

Indeed I think conditions may well be similar to last year.

Certainly sounds that way. If the expected rain across Thursday and Friday is not too heavy (like last year) then ground conditions will be recoverable for Saturday and Sunday. Since the drainage improvements on site a few years back, it takes a lot more rainfall to create a mudbath IMO. Sounding pretty positive to me. One more day at work and then ready to party... Edited June 22, 2014 by Zippy

[duggyfresh]

Met Office predicting periods of heavy rain on Thursday.........

[J10]

One Final things tonight - The Fax Charts

 

- Front advancing from west should bring increased cloud.

 

- This is the front likely to bring rain in from west

 

- Low Pressure - over Southern UK - quite a lot of showers likely

 

---------------------------

 

There will be 3 blogs next week, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday - Each will be updated between 8-9

 

All further thoughts will be in this thread, which will then be in now casting territory. For those of you going please enjoy the festival, and please keep me updated of the ground conditions , either by comments or photos.

 

Thanks for all the feedback, (good and bad) it is appreciated, and makes the hard work worthwhile.

[danbailey80]

Just passing on our thanks from over on the efestivals weather chat...

 

Your hard work is very much appriciated. Cheers

[Luna_87]

Thanks so much for your forecasts Jackone, i followed you all last year for my first festival and this year again. If the weather is like last year, that's totally doable, it rained i think a bit on either Thursday or Friday, turned very muddy for the evening and was baked and hard the next day in the sun. After last year i sort of realised you have to throw all expectation out of the window once you arrive, i mean sure pack for the guide forecast, but you really need to just go with the flow once you get there. And for someone with OCD and anxiety issues that is no mean feat! 

[Neil the Macc lad]

Your forecasts are much appreciated Jackone. I'm usually far to busy being distracted by goings on to post any photos anywhere online, but I will try to remember to sort some out when I get back.

[Mokidugway]

Not going to glasto this year because of daughters wedding , doesn't look that bad to me , if the rains similar to last year then i see no real problem with mud , anyway enjoy the festival,I will be watching on telly ......)

[Basil_Fawlty_Walks_On_Water]

Friday looking a bit nasty, but don't think it will be a washout. Been pretty dry for a while now so fingers are crossed for the best.