Glastonbury Wed 25 to Sun 29 June 2014

[J10]

Latest forecast now done

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4796-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-15-issued-23-june/

 

Another day nearer, you would have though that things would be a bit clearer, well not exactly.

 

The Good News is Thursday is looking drier than previously suggested, the bad news is the weekend is looking more unsettled with a high risk of showers.

 

ECMWF Rainfall link http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Edited June 23, 2014 by J10

[Fussy Onion]

Drier on Thursday is very good news for those of us who can't get to the festival on Wednesday. Thanks.

[Luna_87]

Does anyone have any tips of getting wellies out of mud? 

Edited June 24, 2014 by Luna_87

[Yarmy]

not sure of the Glastonbury thread, can someone please drop this link in for me=the senior man at Exeter with his view of the weather

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/glastonbury

 

 

 

Re-posting John Holmes' link from the model thread.

[duggyfresh]

I have a feeling that I already know how todays forecast will turn out.......

[J10]

I have a feeling that I already know how todays forecast will turn out.......

 

Correct indeed, not for the faint hearted, apologies for the delay, it crashed halfway through, not ideal.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4798-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-15-issued-24-june/

[J10]

 

 

 

 

Re-posting John Holmes' link from the model thread.

 

 

of course, I am incorporating their thoughts into my forecast, I would be very foolish not to.

[duggyfresh]

Thanks for your forecasts once again Jack, they are as part of the build up to me as everything else.

 

Shame things have gone down the pan! It looked so good at one point!

 

Am heading down to the Festival tomorrow afternoon to enjoy the little bit of decent weather whilst I can!

 

Cheers,

 

Duggy

 

P.S. - hope you are wrong!

[gizmoman]

My annual post just to say thank you for all your efforts, hopefully the rain won't be too heavy or persistant and at least it's falling onto a dry site. The really bad mud years had rain onto already sodden ground so it shouldn't be too much of a mudbath (well that's what i'm telling myself!). Thanks again J10/Jackone have a good week.

[J10]

Thanks for your forecasts once again Jack, they are as part of the build up to me as everything else.

 

Shame things have gone down the pan! It looked so good at one point!

 

Am heading down to the Festival tomorrow afternoon to enjoy the little bit of decent weather whilst I can!

 

Cheers,

 

Duggy

 

P.S. - hope you are wrong!

 

So do I

 

The dry ground should help unless it is so dry, that the rain stays on top.

But this is where all you lucky people going to the festival can help. Post updates of ground conditions on here so we can see what it is like on the ground so to speak.

 

Some FAX charts from tonight for the period of the festival

 

Edited June 24, 2014 by J10

[J10]

The final blog forecast is now on line, not much change to yesterday, but the rain for tomorrow edging in late afternoon as opposed to starting early evening and overnight

 

This does mean thought that Thursday overnight into Friday morning should now be mostly dry.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4800-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-16-final-issued-25-june/

 

Big edit above to correct typo -> It now reads into Friday morning, as it should always have been,

Edited June 25, 2014 by J10

[dancing daisy]

Thanks so much J10. Your forecasts are invaluable to us festival goers.

Fingers crossed that these showers avoid the site as there still seems to be some uncertaintity as to how this will all play out. Or maybe I am just being overly optimistic

Thanks again. This time next year yeah?

[J10]

Thanks so much J10. Your forecasts are invaluable to us festival goers.Fingers crossed that these showers avoid the site as there still seems to be some uncertaintity as to how this will all play out. Or maybe I am just being overly optimistic :)Thanks again. This time next year yeah?

 

Yes there is some uncertainty as to the detail, fingers crossed.

 

As for next year, that is a long way ahead, who knows, but for the time being I don't think I want to see another weather model for quite a while.

[Zippy]

Well yesterday was a scorcher really, albeit with some sporadic cloud cover to offer respite. But lots of sunburnt necks about by late afternoon.

Ground conditions really are bone dry, lots of dust being kicked up at busy junctions. I am camped in the Dairy Ground south of the old railway tracks and getting tent pegs into dry cracked soil yesterday was a challenge. However this is one of the more mudbath prone areas of the site so we'll see how it goes when this rain arrives later and tomorrow. No hint of it yet tho, looks like another fine day from where I'm standing.

Edited June 26, 2014 by Zippy

[Zippy]

Rain now on site since about half two. Sporadic initially but now consistent light rain. Upgrading to intermediate footwear.

[J10]

Keep them updates coming.

 

So far Glastonbury has been quite lucky, with under 4mm of rain as this rain radar graphic shows. With nearby areas to the west receiving over 10mm.

 

 

This evening now looks mostly dry and the overnight period shoiuld be dry,

 

Tomorrow and Saturday though sees the risk of very heavy showers with the chance of thunders. In fact a Severe Weather Warning has been issued for most of Southern UK.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1403737200&regionName=sw

 

Issued at: 1022 on Thu 26 Jun 2014

Valid from: 0400 on Fri 27 Jun 2014

Valid to: 2100 on Sat 28 Jun 2014

Showers will become heavy and thundery across southwestern parts of England and Wales early on Friday, moving north-east to affect other areas south of The Wash to North Wales during the day. Some reduction in activity is expected overnight, before further slow moving heavy and thundery downpours develop during Saturday, easing from the north later. The public should be aware that the resulting downpours may lead to localised flooding and potential disruption to transport and outdoor events.

A slack area of low pressure is expected to extend eastwards across southern UK on Friday and Saturday, bringing with it moist and deeply unstable air. Daytime heating will assist the development of heavy showers and thunderstorms.  These are likely to become slow-moving and organised into bands giving some places 15-20 mm of rain in an hour or less and perhaps 40 mm in 2 or 3 hours. Hail and lightning will be additional hazards. As with the nature of showers, some places will escape the heavier ones.

Sunday looks a bit drier,with more in the way of sunny spells  and only the odd shower, but the damage may have been done by then.

 

Fingers crossed that the worst of the showers for the next 48hrs will miss Glastonbury.

Edited June 26, 2014 by J10

[Fussy Onion]

Hi, we are on site and conditions are still good just now as only a few showers this pm.

[J10]

Hi, we are on site and conditions are still good just now as only a few showers this pm.

 

Good news long may it stay that way (fingers Crossed)

[Zippy]

Wowsa. Sounds like them there storms are-a-coming. A great day punctuated only by about two hours (?max) of light rain. Damp under foot on sight but nothing that could be reasonably described as mud. Yet...

[deadstillstanding]

Just finished my shift as light showers started up again for the day - about 8am.

Conditions underfoot are a little slippy but not particularly muddy. Let's see how bad the rain gets.

Separately, thanks also from me jackone for all of the time and effort you've put in on the festival forecast - again. Literally the only accurate Glastonbury forecast and the only one I check every year.

[danbailey80]

The latest on metoffice app seem to have more 'light showers' that 'heavy showers'..And other sites seem to have also reduced there's amount of rain. Have things started to look a bit more positive? I.E has the worst missed/ going to miss..?

 

Thanks again Jackone, we are all very thankful.

[J10]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-28056363

 

Glastonbury festival effected by Lightning in Vicinity.

 

Some heavier rain today, the worst again to the west of Glastonbury festival site, with 10mm of rain on the site itself, and over an inch at Glastonbury "town" to the west.

 

 

would be very interested to know current site conditions.

 

The twitter sphere suggests a lot of mud is this correct. https://twitter.com/search?q=glastonbury%20mud&src=typd

 

 

 

 

Edited June 27, 2014 by J10

[Zippy]

Back at base camp for a reboot. Horrendous flash flood (plus thunder & lightning - yikes!) put the main stages on hold and left a lot of surface water initially. Has now stopped entirely and normal service appears to have been resumed. Busy areas will be pretty muddy for the rest of the day I reckon; quieter parts of the site probably fine for now.

Quite getting into this weather/updates stuff.

Should also have said - full wet weather footwear needed at least for this evening. Let's see what happens over night.

Edited June 27, 2014 by Zippy

[Iceaxecrampon]

This afternoon....

 

 

 

Traditional mudfest - (still wish I was there though)

 

Ian

[J10]

After the heavy rain yesterday, it looks as if the rain largely missed the whole Glastonbury area overnight, which hopefully should have improved the mud situation a bit.

 

Onto Today's likely weather, further heavy showers are likely to times in the general Glastonbury area. These are more likely into the afternoon, when if they hit could give large amounts of rain in a short amount of time.

 

UKMO4 - The UK Met Office Hi Res model.

 

 

Some of these forecasts cover earlier this morning, but this gives a trend of likely showery activity, earlier this afternoon is likely to be the time of the greatest risk of Glastonbury showers.

 

Finally some good news, tomorrow look dry or predominantly dry, with plenty of sunshine, so get the sun cream on. Temps both days 17-18c, but feeling warm tomorrow in the sun.

Edited June 28, 2014 by J10