Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

MJO Analysis


J10

Recommended Posts

MJO (or to give the proper title the Madden Julian Oscillation.) is often discussed on this forum, and I think many people would wish to find out more about how it works, I certainly do.

 

If we take today as an example. This is the current 500mb Chart [06Hz]

 

post-213-0-72338600-1399721405_thumb.png

 

Here is the Current MJO Pattern -> (source link) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml

and the Forecast for the Next 14 days, with a wide variety of models available

 

post-213-0-70268100-1399721831_thumb.gif post-213-0-52119100-1399721947_thumb.gif

 

On the 8th May, we were in Phase 1, with most forecasts indicating a move into Phase 2 by today.

 

How does Phase 2 for May correspond to today's weather taken from the reanalyses below.

 

post-213-0-74977500-1399722328_thumb.jpg

 

and looking forward, what does the rest of May look like given the current MJO forecasts.

 

Further Information Re-analyses of Phases per month

 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Edited by J10
Link to comment
Share on other sites

MJO (or to give the proper title the Madden Julian Oscillation.) is often discussed on this forum, and I think many people would wish to find out more about how it works, I certainly do.

 

If we take today as an example. This is the current 500mb Chart [06Hz]

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gif500Hpa Pressure 10-05-14.png

 

Here is the Current MJO Pattern -> (source link) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml

and the Forecast for the Next 14 days, with a wide variety of models available

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifobs_phase40_full.gif http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifNCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

On the 8th May, we were in Phase 1, with most forecasts indicating a move into Phase 2 by today.

 

How does Phase 2 for May correspond to today's weather taken from the reanalyses below.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifMay Phase 2.jpg

 

and looking forward, what does the rest of May look like given the current MJO forecasts.

 

Further Information Re-analyses of Phases per month

 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

 

 

The situation in the northern hemisphere does not correspond to the real MJO phase of these next time. Phases 1, 2 and 3 are in favor of NAO + but the negative NAO will dominate and which may dominate this month. MJO phase much less impact in summer than winter in Europe

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...