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MJO Analysis


J10
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MJO (or to give the proper title the Madden Julian Oscillation.) is often discussed on this forum, and I think many people would wish to find out more about how it works, I certainly do.

 

If we take today as an example. This is the current 500mb Chart [06Hz]

 

post-213-0-72338600-1399721405_thumb.png

 

Here is the Current MJO Pattern -> (source link) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml

and the Forecast for the Next 14 days, with a wide variety of models available

 

post-213-0-70268100-1399721831_thumb.gif post-213-0-52119100-1399721947_thumb.gif

 

On the 8th May, we were in Phase 1, with most forecasts indicating a move into Phase 2 by today.

 

How does Phase 2 for May correspond to today's weather taken from the reanalyses below.

 

post-213-0-74977500-1399722328_thumb.jpg

 

and looking forward, what does the rest of May look like given the current MJO forecasts.

 

Further Information Re-analyses of Phases per month

 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Edited by J10
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MJO (or to give the proper title the Madden Julian Oscillation.) is often discussed on this forum, and I think many people would wish to find out more about how it works, I certainly do.

 

If we take today as an example. This is the current 500mb Chart [06Hz]

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gif500Hpa Pressure 10-05-14.png

 

Here is the Current MJO Pattern -> (source link) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml

and the Forecast for the Next 14 days, with a wide variety of models available

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifobs_phase40_full.gif http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifNCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

On the 8th May, we were in Phase 1, with most forecasts indicating a move into Phase 2 by today.

 

How does Phase 2 for May correspond to today's weather taken from the reanalyses below.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifMay Phase 2.jpg

 

and looking forward, what does the rest of May look like given the current MJO forecasts.

 

Further Information Re-analyses of Phases per month

 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

 

 

The situation in the northern hemisphere does not correspond to the real MJO phase of these next time. Phases 1, 2 and 3 are in favor of NAO + but the negative NAO will dominate and which may dominate this month. MJO phase much less impact in summer than winter in Europe

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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