Convective / Storm Discussion - 14th May 2014 onwards

[Jane Louise]

Wow!! look at the potential for this weekend and next week    I really hope this comes off for us all. Please please let there be no downgrades lol.

Anyway, please carry on here as you were.

Edited May 14, 2014 by Jane Louise

[Stuart]

next week look great in some places and hope there no downgrades and hope I get out of NSC

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

As I said in the previous thread please don't take the charts at gospal... But my god   

[Supacell]

 

As I said in the previous thread please don't take the charts at gospal... But my god   

 

Yes it may be worth booking a trip to Belgium for this one

 

All joking aside, WRF are now onboard for Friday/Saturday/Sunday and they tend not to overdo to the extent GFS does. The WRF charts I have do not go any further than Sunday but some tastiness even before next week looks possible.

[Nick L]

It's looking like we may have better potential for the start of next week than the guys out in the US

[A.J]

ok, some nice storm porn here for you, all subject to change of course, but very nice at face value

 

First of all, slow moving LP stalled in Biscay allowing WAA over the UK

 

 

 

 

large amounts of SBCAPE building due to decent insolation and an inherently unstable lower atmosphere, with high lifted indices

 

 

steepening lapse rates aiding deep convection

 

 

plenty of mixed layer CAPE indicative of unstable mid levels

 

 

nice dewpoint spread

 

All in all, a nice pot of ingredients to breed potent surface based storms and elevated storms

So, for storm lovers, there are exciting charts and an exciting times watching how the models pan these parameters out over the next few days

[Mapantz]

Not even a sniff of potential here at this range, but they'll get watered down and mixed about quite a lot as we progress towards it. The GFS is always generous with such ingredients, I just can't take it seriously.

[vladthemert]

somebody going say it may as well be me maybe we wont downgrade but upgrade    

[Dancerwithwings]

Not even a sniff of potential here at this range, but they'll get watered down and mixed about quite a lot as we progress towards it. The GFS is always generous with such ingredients, I just can't take it seriously.

True indeed..... Ya never see an upgrade do ya... But not knocking them charts, they make my eyes water

[Mapantz]

There's plenty of cross-model support for something to happen at that range, albeit, slight variations. It's also been a common setup since October last year, one that I particularly like, mark my words, it will occur many more times throughout the year! Fingers crossed for next week.

[NL]

So, for storm lovers, there are exciting charts and an exciting times watching how the models pan these parameters out over the next few days

Great for storm lovers away from east facing coasts. Think I might have to travel/chase if this materializes as it stands presently. They'll be many twists and turns before next week and for those in the west dont be surprised to see a shift further east hopefully not as far into Belgium..!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Great for storm lovers away from east facing coasts. Think I might have to travel/chase if this materializes as it stands presently. They'll be many twists and turns before next week and for those in the west dont be surprised to see a shift further east hopefully not as far into Belgium..!!

Thing about this though, is that the steering winds look to have more of a southeasterly component, so a good chance of some possible MCS's drifting up the East Coast

[Dancerwithwings]

Regarding our fellow NW Storm chasers, i'm sure we are all in the appreciation society when looking at these mouth watering US Cape charts for next week.

Looking at the Kansas area, it brings our tiddlers into perspective doesn't it

 

Edited May 14, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Tom Jarvis]

I am still in the NSC and the charts that have been show as usual hardly any cape over my location

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Regarding our fellow NW Storm chasers, i'm sure we are all in the appreciation society when looking at these mouth watering US Cape charts for next week.

Looking at the Kansas area, it brings our tidders into perspective doesn't it

 

 

   -10 LI of the scale cape... 

[Convective]

I am still in the NSC and the charts that have been show as usual hardly any cape over my location

 

Don't take the surface based CAPE charts at face value. As mentioned earlier today, hopefully there will be some juicy MLCAPE charts for elevated storm development. Thats what I'm relying on for a storm here, not surface based energy!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80167-south-east-england-east-anglia-central-southern-england-regional-weather-chat/?p=2968178

 

Anyone who wants a peek at my pictures 

[SnowJoke]

Thing about this though, is that the steering winds look to have more of a southeasterly component, so a good chance of some possible MCS's drifting up the East Coast

 

I wouldn't even mention MCS imports, the last couple of years have seen residual cloud and general clagg from European MCS's completely mess up storm development over the UK even though the charts showed great potential. 

[Lynxus]

What...

 

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2014051417_201405141306_-_mesoscalediscussion.xml

 

Never seen this on Estofex!

 

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 14 May 2014 13:00 to Wed 14 May 2014 17:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 14 May 2014 13:06
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

According to latest surface observations, strength and position of the deepening surface low centered over Northwestern Bulgaria seem to follow the forecast models. An increasing number of storms has initiated along the eastward shifting cold front, roughly aligned to the Western edge of the highlighted area. Ahead of it, scattered insolation and strong warm air advection have resulted in rising temperatures and dewpoints (e.g. Plovdiv with 21/17°C and Gorna Orechovista with 22/18°C at 12 UTC) with Easterly surface winds.
Storms are organizing very well while they move northeast into the strongly sheared and helical wind profiles of the warm air advection regime. A bow echo is currently moving across the oblasts of Pleven and Lovech. Severe wind gusts and localized hail can be expected with its passage. As soon as the bow echo crosses the pronounced warm front along the Romanian border, it will encounter strong Northeasterly surface winds (7-10 m/s) and much lower surface temperatures (13-15°C). Convection will quickly become elevated and weaken, but will still pose a threat of heavy precipitation over Southern Romania.
Further South, some storms with radar reflectivities up to 60 dBZ have kept a more discrete appearance over the Southwestern quadrant of Bulgaria and as far South as the Thessaloniki hinterland in Greece. An organization into supercells with a threat of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts can be expected, possibly followed by a clustering into an MCS later on. Especially in a corridor between the Balkan mountains to the South and the Danube river to the North, strongly backed surface winds ahead of the surface low may even promote a few tornadoes.

 

 

Spot on too..

 

Edited May 14, 2014 by Lynxus

[Lauren]

I wrote in the storm experience thread of the time we experienced a near supercell or even a mild one in the Bulgarian mountains back in the 90's, quite spectacular and scary at the same time it was.

[Dan the Man]

   -10 LI of the scale cape... 

 

May I ask what the "lifting index" determines?

[Dancerwithwings]

May I ask what the "lifting index" determines?

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80249-what-is-capeli/

[Mokidugway]

Some good potential for the north west early next week , dare we speak of plumes !!!!.......

[Spikecollie]

Two or three great little storms today as we had a day off and visited Regensberg - the pictures were late afternoon heavy showers, but we had lightning like yesterday later on as we were heading back to Nuremberg on the train and when we were in the restaurant this evening.

Edited May 14, 2014 by Spikecollie

[Supacell]

Next week still looking interesting from a convective standpoint although the high CAPE values have been relaxed a little on the overnight GFS runs. 

 

Before that we have Friday and Saturday which are now close enough for us to be able to look at other parameters such as wind shear, helicity etc and from this I can see that the chance of any organised thundery activity looks minimal with little or no wind shear. What we do have is some fairly high CAPE values being shown for both afternoons and evenings and GFS wants to break out some precipitation in association with this. However, with high pressure sat over the area being shown I would imagine that a strong cap would exist and we would need temperatures to get high enough for anything to happen. If temperatures are suppressed in any way then nothing will happen.

 

If temperatures can rise high enough then we would need a trigger, this would appear to be a convergence zone. Currently (using the GFS) this is shown in a line from Hull to the Isle of Wight on Friday and approximately Scarborough to Brighton on Saturday. This zone is subject to change of course and WRF has it further west. However, storms that do develop would likely collapse on themselves quite quickly but whilst they are fired up could briefly produce local torrential rain and some decent lightning due to what will be a loaded gun scenario. Further storms could then fire up and collapse along this zone during the evening hours.

 

Note that I am not a forecaster and base this simply on experience due to an avid interest in storms for many years, therefore I could quite easily have missed something or interpreted things wrongly. If I have, and a more experienced person can see this then please feel free to pull me up on it. It's the only way I will learn