Convective / Storm Discussion - 14th May 2014 onwards

[dwalton]

MetO not really going for anything else apart from heavy pulses of rain. Too Early to tell of course but MetO normally pick something up if widespread thundery activity

[Convective]

Interesting, not one lightning symbol on this video forecast from 7th of May 2011 yet that was the day the biggest UK thunderstorm I ever remember hit here... as far as I can remember, wasn't early May 2011 a set up with mild, moist air advecting northwards? Perhaps someone can recall that set up and give a brief explanation as to what happened that month  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu6xrOzQipQ

[Chris K]

Interesting, not one lightning symbol on this video forecast from 7th of May 2011 yet that was the day the biggest UK thunderstorm I ever remember hit here... as far as I can remember, wasn't early May 2011 a set up with mild, moist air advecting northwards? Perhaps someone can recall that set up and give a brief explanation as to what happened that month

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu6xrOzQipQ

If it helps - here is the fax chart from 7th May 2011 - Low pressure is situated more to the west than what is forecast next week, allowing more warm air to advect northwards from the continent with what looks like embedded troughs and on this chart a thundery low developing in the Bay of Biscay.

 

Edited May 16, 2014 by Chris K

[Convective]

If it helps - here is the fax chart from 7th May 2011 - Low pressure is situated more to the west than what is forecast next week, allowing more warm air to advect northwards from the continent with what looks like embedded troughs and on this chart a thundery low developing in the Bay of Biscay.

 

 

I see, thanks for that. Would love to see another storm like I did that evening... truly terrific.

[A.J]

If it helps - here is the fax chart from 7th May 2011 - Low pressure is situated more to the west than what is forecast next week, allowing more warm air to advect northwards from the continent with what looks like embedded troughs and on this chart a thundery low developing in the Bay of Biscay.

 

yes Chris, the trough straddling the midlands sparked elevated storms early evening over Worcestershire which then drifted north during the overnight period. I remember that day (the friday) was particularly warm and muggy (26C)......There were more scattered thunderstorms over that weekend and into monday, and on the Monday we had the 'legendary' surface based monster in Staffs (worth reading up on that weekend, it's in the convective thread archives in the forum archives section)

[Mapantz]

Nowcast and radar springs to mind! My preferred thoughts are more of pulses of rain, turning thundery/convective as it moves inland, with embedded storms. I'm not saying that will definitely be the case, but I certainly think it's too early to get excited about an explosion of meteorological pyrotechnics.

[Bobby]

Interesting, not one lightning symbol on this video forecast from 7th of May 2011 yet that was the day the biggest UK thunderstorm I ever remember hit here... as far as I can remember, wasn't early May 2011 a set up with mild, moist air advecting northwards? Perhaps someone can recall that set up and give a brief explanation as to what happened that month

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu6xrOzQipQ

 

We had a series of epic storms early that month here too.

 

I'm thinking that next week will be more about heavy rain rather than thunderstorms. I think there will be some mainly in the east, but I wouldn't get too excited - there seems to be downgrades of late. It's a tricky setup however and we'll need to get into the short range to be confident on thundery activity or not.

 

I can see a flood event later in the week if that low positions right and somewhere gets a stalling front as there's going to be a hell of a lot moisture and energy in them skies.

I bet Lincolnshire and the NE get the worst of any storms!

[davehsug]

Just a quickie. How many of us on here have ever experienced an "embedded storm"? They seem to be things of myth & legend, often mentioned in forecasts & forums but very rarely seen. I've experienced the dregs of an MCS form France, with torrential rain & the occasional flash, but never the "embedded storm". They must exist or they wouldn't be mentioned so often, I've just yet to see any proof lol!

[Neilsouth]

23RD JULY 2013 - Herne Bay UK Thunderstorm <- Want another repeat please! That one was dangerous, took the power out a number of times, killed someone and set a house on fire.   Then there was the supercell of 2007

Edited May 16, 2014 by Victor Meldrew

[Mapantz]

Just a quickie. How many of us on here have ever experienced an "embedded storm"? They seem to be things of myth & legend, often mentioned in forecasts & forums but very rarely seen. I've experienced the dregs of an MCS form France, with torrential rain & the occasional flash, but never the "embedded storm". They must exist or they wouldn't be mentioned so often, I've just yet to see any proof lol!

I guess it is down to a certain definition, but my own experience (that I last recall) was when an area of heavy and convective rainfall was moving up from the channel, no sferics were being detected before it made it here, but when it did, parts of Dorset experienced some torrential rain and a good 15 mins of thunder and lightning. The charts showed limited CAPE and lift but a lobe of positive vorticity advection around Dorset, IoW and Hampshire, under a slack southerly flow. The ATD lightning detector picked up a handful of sferics thereafter. I mentioned earlier in a post about PVA being a factor, I don't claim to be an expert but it can be a piece of a jigsaw under some circumstances, so that's why I look at the vertical vorticity charts on occasions.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

If it helps - here is the fax chart from 7th May 2011 - Low pressure is situated more to the west than what is forecast next week, allowing more warm air to advect northwards from the continent with what looks like embedded troughs and on this chart a thundery low developing in the Bay of Biscay.

 

That was the last thunderstorm we had

[Buckster]

18z doesn't look great for Sunday now ?

[Darren Bown]

What was the setup for the beast that hit the midlands in 2012 - i remember the Olympic torch relay running through it.

[A.J]

What was the setup for the beast that hit the midlands in 2012 - i remember the Olympic torch relay running through it.

Hi Darren, here's the ECM archives....some definite synoptic similarities to some of the charts for next week.....The key differences are that the in 2012, the incumbent LP was further west and north allowing a stronger WAA in the mid levels from the south, also if memories serve me right, there was also impressive low level moisture advection, MLCAPE values were impressive in the 2012 outbreak allowing multicell elevated storms to break out during the early morning period over the Welsh Marches, these storms tapped into the low level moisture and rooted in the boundary layer allowing the supercells to form over Leicestershire producing at least 2 tornadoes and very large hail

 

    

[Harry]

I see, thanks for that. Would love to see another storm like I did that evening... truly terrific.

Tbh, I'd like to just hear one rumble of thunder at this stage :cray:Looking at the current charts for next week it looks fairly promising for most people. Masses of continental CAPE build up towards the bank holiday weekend also, the detail of which could prove interesting as next week proceeds (for the South anyway at this stage) Edited May 17, 2014 by Harry

[dwalton]

Not really looking so good for this week now

[Ben Sainsbury]

You really just cannot use just CAPE and LI's in deciding whether there will be storms or not, to me depending on how west the front is situated in the Atlantic depends on how widespread the action will be. Whether the charts for CAPE look worse or not there is still a huge but uncertain potential, you cannot rule anything out until the final minute.

 

When viewing charts you should closely look at the LI's because in general the lower the LI (-3) for example, has a better chance of strong thunderstorms than LI's of (-1) as there is usually a correlation between the low LI's and strong thunderstorms. However with CAPE even if you have little amounts, if you have strong shear as well including this front to our west and include dirnual heating, there could really be some strong thunderstorms, it's very difficult to get right even at this stage.

Edited May 17, 2014 by interestingweather

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Thunderstorms are like snow... You need so many different things.. And the small things make the difference.. Like 1 degree up or down can make snow fluffy and nice or wet mush! If you get the right ingredients to produce a storm.. Then you can witness some proper storms..

[Harry]

You really just cannot use just CAPE and LI's in deciding whether there will be storms or not, to me depending on how west the front is situated in the Atlantic depends on how widespread the action will be. Whether the charts for CAPE look worse or not there is still a huge but uncertain potential, you cannot rule anything out until the final minute. When viewing charts you should closely look at the LI's because in general the lower the LI (-3) for example, has a better chance of strong thunderstorms than LI's of (-1) as there is usually a correlation between the low LI's and strong thunderstorms. However with CAPE even if you have little amounts, if you have strong shear as well including this front to our west and include dirnual heating, there could really be some strong thunderstorms, it's very difficult to get right even at this stage.

Absolutely - when you combine the CAPE and LI projections with slack LP to the SW, some jet stream activity particularly across England (though the result of Rossby wave breaking away and gradually weakening later next week), prevailing southerly flow, good moisture available, lack of frontal mess...to me it's looking like a very interesting week indeed

[Darren Bown]

Thanks aj, I remember that well, even though I did not experience it for myself, seeing it on TV was incredible. I'm travelling to Surrey tomorrow evening and then back Monday night, so may see something on my travels!

[vladthemert]

not sure how cars temps are but its says its 24c at present here yet humberside is 64f  which is I think around 18c.  If the car accurate then my mistrust in my weather station which was calling 22c I offset it in weather display to match humberside.  

 

This going implode the clouds if we are 22c rest country will be hotter.

[Nick L]

not sure how cars temps are but its says its 24c at present here yet humberside is 64f  which is I think around 18c.  If the car accurate then my mistrust in my weather station which was calling 22c I offset it in weather display to match humberside.  

 

This going implode the clouds if we are 22c rest country will be hotter.

 

Car thermometers are notoriously iffy.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Another slight shift to the west by GFS again?

[The PIT]

not sure how cars temps are but its says its 24c at present here yet humberside is 64f  which is I think around 18c.  If the car accurate then my mistrust in my weather station which was calling 22c I offset it in weather display to match humberside.  

 

This going implode the clouds if we are 22c rest country will be hotter.

Ignore what you car thermometer says they totally inaccurate and can only be used as an extremely rough guide. I suspect your car might have been parked in the sun if yu keep driving around a bit it may get closer to the proper values. For example my journey home from work takes 20 mins if the cars parked in the sun all day it isn't uncommon for the entire journey home to be at 30C when the Max temp is 15c to 20C. In winter when you get in them the temperature is probably more akin to grass temperature than the actual air temp.

[Lauren]

Cloudy but humid so far.