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2014 - a very warm year for the UK.


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Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

    As of May, I'm sure many of you are aware that 2014 has been a very mild (in fact the Met Office are suggesting the third mildest year on record!) and also a very wet year so far. Winter 2013-14 was virtually snowless for many as well as being the wettest winter on record in some parts of the country and producing very few frosts. March and April have been much drier, but have still been quite above average in terms of temperatures, especially March. May has also been a generally warmer than average month so far, but not by a lot with the May 2014 CET being 0.9C above the 1961-90 average as of 15 May. Should May come out above average (which I'd imagine that it will) at the end, it will be the sixth consecutive warmer than average month with November 2013 being the most recent colder than average month.

     

    Long range forecasts are also predicting all three upcoming summer months to be above average too, (see the Netweather Summer 2014 forecast) giving us the possibility of nine consecutive warmer than average months. Of course the forecasts for July and August are very low confidence at the moment so it is still a very far-fetched possibility at the moment.

     

    I have attached a graph that represents the maxima and minima for 2014, along with 2012, 2013 and the 1981-2010 average for my location. Of course there are local variations, but I believe this graph is quite representative of the whole country. :)

    post-21671-0-83271300-1400274619_thumb.p

    Edited by ScottRichards10
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    • 3 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

    Well as I predicted, May has turned out to be another warmer than average month, making that six consecutive above average months we've had now. The Met Office are also saying we have just had the third warmest Spring on record, a very big difference from last year! 2014 really is turning into a very remarkable year!

     

    What the heck does Summer have in store for us?

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    • 4 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

    Well as I predicted, May has turned out to be another warmer than average month, making that six consecutive above average months we've had now. The Met Office are also saying we have just had the third warmest Spring on record, a very big difference from last year! 2014 really is turning into a very remarkable year!

     

    What the heck does Summer have in store for us?

    so far not much , unremarkable temps so far this summer,  just average or slighty above maximums , and now, looking like a period of below average, maybe the run of above average is coming to an end, just in time for mid to late summer 

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    Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

    so far not much , unremarkable temps so far this summer,  just average or slighty above maximums , and now, looking like a period of below average, maybe the run of above average is coming to an end, just in time for mid to late summer 

     

    Certainly June 2014 is going to turn out approximately 1.6C above average, making this the seventh consecutive above average month, and the eleventh above average month since July 2013.

     

    Indeed the main question is "when will this above average run end?", and I personally think that July 2014 will be the transition month. I think the CET will turn out to be within 0.3C of the July average which means that August 2014 will begin a run of cooler than average months.

     

    That's my guess...

    Edited by ScottRichards10
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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

    Certainly June 2014 is going to turn out approximately 1.6C above average, making this the seventh consecutive above average month, and the eleventh above average month since July 2013.

     

    Indeed the main question is "when will this above average run end?", and I personally think that July 2014 will be the transition month. I think the CET will turn out to be within 0.3C of the July average which means that August 2014 will begin a run of cooler than average months.

     

    That's my guess...

    I tend to agree,  i think this will tun out to be an unremarkable summer, ok so far its not exactly  been a disaster, but the above averages we keep hearing are like a smack in the face, as it does not feel we have any decent hot sunny weather this time, still time though, but like another poster mentioned in another thread it seems the signs for a good classic summer would have appeared by now,time is not on our side  I think its generally more of the same now towards autumn ie average type of feel

    Edited by IanR
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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

    Here is the temperature graph for the first half of 2014 for my location. It really just shows the homogeneity of this year - above average temperatures, but not exceptionally so, from January up until the present.

    post-21671-0-17399700-1404860536_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    I tend to agree,  i think this will tun out to be an unremarkable summer, ok so far its not exactly  been a disaster, but the above averages we keep hearing are like a smack in the face, as it does not feel we have any decent hot sunny weather this time, still time though, but like another poster mentioned in another thread it seems the signs for a good classic summer would have appeared by now,time is not on our side  I think its generally more of the same now towards autumn ie average type of feel

    Warmer summers do not mean wall to wall sunshine just as colder winters do not mean big long snow events.

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    Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

    July 2014 was once again another warmer than average month with a CET of 17.7C, which is 1.0C above the 1981-2010 average. That has made it eight above average months in a row now.

     

    However, as we moved into August, we've began to see quite a bit of a change - the first few days of the month continued with the warmer than average trend, however after around August 5-7, we began to see the warmer than average trend fade. Ever since this date, temperatures have generally been below average, this becoming more apparent after the arrival of ex-Hurricane Bertha on August 10. This has meant that the August 2014 CET has gradually fallen as the month has progressed and now currently lies at 16.7C, which is 0.7C above the 1981-2010 average, as of August 12.

     

    Well what does this mean then? Well by looking at the forecasts for the rest of the month, we can see that the below average trend is looking to continue until at least the last few days of the month. This could possibly mean that August has now marked the turn around into a run of cooler than average months. The CET for August could turn out to be very close to average, or possibly even slightly below average as of this rate. The only uncertainty comes with the possibility of higher pressure and slightly higher temperatures towards the end of the month, however this is still a bit of a distance away yet, so can not be relied on just yet.

     

    However this is all still my speculation...

    Edited by ScottRichards10
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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

    wasn't november last year slighty below average, a blip, the following months continued the above trend, could august be another blip, or is this the start of a cold period like the run up to dec2010

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    Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

    wasn't november last year slighty below average, a blip, the following months continued the above trend, could august be another blip, or is this the start of a cold period like the run up to dec2010

     

    Yes November 2013 was only slightly below average which appears to have been a blip, and August may very well do the same thing. At the moment it is all speculation.

    Edited by ScottRichards10
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    • 4 months later...
    Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

    So yeah, 2014 has finished out as the warmest year on record, knocking 2006 out of it's place. Every month, except for August has come out warmer than average.

     

    Temperature graph for my location:

     

     

    post-21671-0-73672100-1420196430_thumb.p

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