Chase Day 8 Discussion - Slight Risk WY, MT

[nsrobins]

Reasonable chance this one in an otherwise meagre spell just now.There's enough moisture return to generate 1200 or so CAPE in response to surface heat and a cool upper regime in the region N WY and S MT. RAP triggers convection in the nook of the DL and east/west trough with shear seemingly able to overcome modest CAPE to generate rotating updrafts.Actually hodos for far SE MT look suitably curved to me - only problem might be the base height which when not surface based precludes tornado chances but with that directional shear I wouldn't rule out a tornado and anyway structure should be very impressive with the landscape as a backdrop.

Early lunch for me at Gillette, WY but I will expect to move North on initiation

[chionomaniac]

Just looked at the models and have plumped for exactly the same as Neil - Gillette - the best a man can get, hey? Does anyone know where the team are overnighting? I wonder how many miles that brand new car will have on it at the end of the first tour!

[Cookie]

Record breaking mileage?

[Paul Sherman]

We are on the Wyoming / Nebraska Border and will be leaving for the northbound journey in the next few hours, expecting a few supercells to head eastbound later on and with one eye on changeover on Wednesday and being 1,200 miles away we will have to think later about the trip back south.

 

Hoping for some nice structure today above most else

[Paul Sherman]

Just crossed into Wyoming which makes it the 10th State on this trip and a new record for the Netweather tours beating the 9 from a few years ago. Champagne corks popping here

[chionomaniac]

We are on the Wyoming / Nebraska Border and will be leaving for the northbound journey in the next few hours, expecting a few supercells to head eastbound later on and with one eye on changeover on Wednesday and being 1,200 miles away we will have to think later about the trip back south.

 

Hoping for some nice structure today above most else

I see that there is a slight risk area southern Wyoming/ West Nebraska for tomorrows trip south! That's helpful and it would be rude not to as you will be passing that way! Also today's tube risk has reached 5% for SE Montana - could just be achievable!

[nsrobins]

Latest obs indicate a rather diffuse DL lies along the I87 roughly Casper to Sheridan WY. There is enough buoyancy to initiate convection to the NE of this line in the next hour IMO so Gillette up to the Custer National Park still looks roughly right.Likely to be medium based heights despite the SPC guidance but enough SRH exists to generate rotation. CIN drops away from about 20Z.All the best.

[IanM]

Any further north and we'll be in Canada :-)

[davehsug]

Are the team still streaming. Had nothing but "There was an error playing this video" for the last hour.

[IanM]

Montana might be one of the most scenic states I've visited, but the internet sucks and the road network isn't so much a network as a couple of interstates connected by mining and logging roads.

 

Still we got some nice structure, decent CG's (I'll pull these from video later) and got to see snow, so all good.

 

[Dorsetbred]

And well positioned for the short trip to DFW, at only 1146miles

[IanM]

Thakfully the storms should play ball today Quen and we'll be able to chase in the direction of Dallas, which will cut some of Tuesdays journey down so we can reach the airport in good time on Wednesday

 

Jo probably won't thank me for this, but she likes clouds and climbing on cars