Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Chase Day 8 Discussion - Slight Risk WY, MT


nsrobins
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Reasonable chance this one in an otherwise meagre spell just now.There's enough moisture return to generate 1200 or so CAPE in response to surface heat and a cool upper regime in the region N WY and S MT. RAP triggers convection in the nook of the DL and east/west trough with shear seemingly able to overcome modest CAPE to generate rotating updrafts.Actually hodos for far SE MT look suitably curved to me - only problem might be the base height which when not surface based precludes tornado chances but with that directional shear I wouldn't rule out a tornado and anyway structure should be very impressive with the landscape as a backdrop.

    Early lunch for me at Gillette, WY but I will expect to move North on initiation

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 11
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Just looked at the models and have plumped for exactly the same as Neil - Gillette - the best a man can get, hey? Does anyone know where the team are overnighting? I wonder how many miles that brand new car will have on it at the end of the first tour!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    We are on the Wyoming / Nebraska Border and will be leaving for the northbound journey in the next few hours, expecting a few supercells to head eastbound later on and with one eye on changeover on Wednesday and being 1,200 miles away we will have to think later about the trip back south.

     

    Hoping for some nice structure today above most else

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Just crossed into Wyoming which makes it the 10th State on this trip and a new record for the Netweather tours beating the 9 from a few years ago. Champagne corks popping here

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    We are on the Wyoming / Nebraska Border and will be leaving for the northbound journey in the next few hours, expecting a few supercells to head eastbound later on and with one eye on changeover on Wednesday and being 1,200 miles away we will have to think later about the trip back south.

     

    Hoping for some nice structure today above most else

    I see that there is a slight risk area southern Wyoming/ West Nebraska for tomorrows trip south! That's helpful and it would be rude not to as you will be passing that way! Also today's tube risk has reached 5% for SE Montana - could just be achievable!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Latest obs indicate a rather diffuse DL lies along the I87 roughly Casper to Sheridan WY. There is enough buoyancy to initiate convection to the NE of this line in the next hour IMO so Gillette up to the Custer National Park still looks roughly right.Likely to be medium based heights despite the SPC guidance but enough SRH exists to generate rotation. CIN drops away from about 20Z.All the best.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

    Any further north and we'll be in Canada :-)

    post-1056-0-05883000-1400444980_thumb.jp

    post-1056-0-18424200-1400445011_thumb.jp

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

    Are the team still streaming. Had nothing but "There was an error playing this video" for the last hour.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

    Montana might be one of the most scenic states I've visited, but the internet sucks and the road network isn't so much a network as a couple of interstates connected by mining and logging roads.

     

    Still we got some nice structure, decent CG's (I'll pull these from video later) and got to see snow, so all good.

     

    post-1056-0-71982900-1400475998_thumb.jp

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

    Thakfully the storms should play ball today Quen and we'll be able to chase in the direction of Dallas, which will cut some of Tuesdays journey down so we can reach the airport in good time on Wednesday

     

    Jo probably won't thank me for this, but she likes clouds and climbing on cars

     

    post-1056-0-00620600-1400511547_thumb.jp

     

     

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...