June 2014 CET Forecasts

[summer blizzard]

Indeed and actually it'd not suprise me if this is the third cool June on the trott.

 

Lower me to a bang on average 14.5C.

[geoffw]

15.7 please

[Stargazer]

After several above average months I'm going for (randomly spins the wheel of fortune)...very average.  Let's say 14.6.

[Harve]

I'll try 16.5c. More of the same.

[StretfordEnd1996]

14.9 - marginally above average though hard to tell 

[damianslaw]

Have no strong feeling for June. It is like April and May quite a tricky month to predict. I'm going for 15.4 degrees. Nightime minima once again helping to keep mean temps above average, but some chilly days at times.

 

Today is a good case in point, we maxed at 11 degrees, yet minima looks like holding out at 10 degrees, producing a 10.5 degree mean, despite maxima being 3-4 degrees what you would expect here by late May - the CET value can be very misleading.

[sundog]

 An average month i reckon,14.6c for me please.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the June CET in blue, with the 10 year mean in red/orange and the linear trend in black.

 

 

 

The correlation between May and June is 0.27, which is slightly below the average of all the consecutive monthly pairs, which means that the CET in June is less likely to have a similar anomaly to the CET in May that the other consecutive months.

 

As May looks like finishing somewhere between 12.0C and 12.5C after corrections, the June's that followed May in that range averaged a value of 14.7C.

 

Seeing as the trend has been flat, and we've had both warm and cold June's in recent decades, there's no particularly remarkable stats or records to mention!

[stewfox]

15c please

[SteveB]

I think this will be the start of below average months (just when you don't want them)

 

14.3c please

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.9C, thanks

[virtualsphere]

 

Seeing as the trend has been flat, and we've had both warm and cold June's in recent decades, there's no particularly remarkable stats or records to mention!

 

Thanks for posting the graph.  The flat trend is interesting in itself, as we're probably overdue an anomaly of some sort there, whether warm or cold, with the last 'unusual' CET June in 1991.  It's quite odd in itself that none of the top 17 CET Junes have occurred since 1990, and only one appears in the top 25 (2003).

 

If this were 1787 on the other hand, we might have been wondering what was going on, since 1772, 1775, 1781, 1785, 1786 were all warmer than 16C (i.e. any June we've had since 2003).

[Summer of 95]

We've had plenty of anomalous Junes since 1976, so far as sunshine and rainfall are concerned. More 100mm plus Junes in the last 35 years than the previous 100.

Theres a June sunshine graph on the MO site; it shows a gradual decline over the last century with a particularly noticeable drop in the late 1970s from which it hasn't recovered.

June really isn't what it used to be, look at all the hot ones between 1750-1850 especially. If we can manage a subzero December surely we can get a 17C plus June?

[syed2878]

this time im gona take a wile stab. 14.7c d

[reef]

Despite signs in the models showing a cooler June, I've still got a feeling its going to be another above average month, though not exceptionally so.

 

15.1C

Edited May 30, 2014 by reef

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

15.2 Unsettled and cool but with a warm/hot snap ..

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

15.3 C.

Edited May 30, 2014 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Weather-history]

14.9C

[DR(S)NO]

14.8c please.....a game of two halves for June?

[Bobby]

15.5c

Fairly warm, cloudy and wet says my crystal ball

[Gael_Force]

17c please.

[Norrance]

14.6C please.

[mulzy]

14.5c please

[davehsug]

That warm air will get a hold for a while at some time 15.7c please.

[Roger J Smith]

A rather cloudy 14.8 C that will need some late heat to achieve even that.