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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Some technical thoughts from the Met Office

 

An active complex frontal zone is expected to move northwards into southeast England on Wednesday evening continuing across the southern half of England and Wales on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This brings the threat of some heavy rain for a time with embedded convection within the frontal band. To the rear of the frontal zone scattered thundery showers are likely to develop bringing some further localised downpours during Thursday afternoon.  Considerable local variations in rainfall are likely. However, totals of more than 40 mm are likely in places through the day with a risk of 15 mm falling in less than an hour locally.

 

So it looks like an area of heavy rain with some embedded thundery elements, then perhaps the best chance of a storm comes Thursday afternoon. Decent amounts of CAPE available across the S, humid and some convergence zones could form which could be a trigger if other elements are lacking. Not widespread storms perhaps but I feel any that do form could pack a punch.

 

Possible convergence zones:

 

Posted Image

 

Cheers for bringing that chart up, that convergence is right above my house, fingers very tightly cross again that this one will pack a punch and we are not doing Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Nothing striking from severe-weather.eu but it was issued yesterday.

post-15177-0-90732300-1400675563_thumb.p

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Chances for today are non existent, tonight, and for my location, tomorrow afternoon may be fun!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Perhaps we shouldn't rely on France for their imports, because once they've had all theirs all they send over to us is that horrible grey blanket of dull cloud. Lol :nonono: but this only happens on a few occasions mind Lol

agreed, the only decent thing France can import is garlic  :crazy:

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The thing is last time something like this happened I watched all the serfics stay over France.. Got really annoyed then my girlfriend was going home at about 9:30 and it was dark and she said look over there.. whats that flashing? And to my surprise I could see flashes from a thunderstorm that had sparked up right on the coast.. It gave such a good show you just never know with thunderstorms they are a beautiful stalker! Catching you right when you least expect it 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Worth noting that France will go bang this afternoon...taking the activity further south in France and over Biscay and hoping this moves our way is futile. 

 

Give it 2-3 hours and my money is France looking like a discoball of lightning strikes.

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Posted
  • Location: Ludwigshafen / Mannheim, Germany (98 m)
  • Location: Ludwigshafen / Mannheim, Germany (98 m)

We just hit 30°C! Im close to the LVL 1 area of estofex, tomorrow Mannheim should be right in bullseye!

 

Marked my location in the last two maps, first map is GFS and the last two WRF

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Really is all or nothing this scenario. I'm liking the action over the bay of biscay though. Most of the progged convective action was forecasted to be over mainland France if I'm correct?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

agreed, the only decent thing France can import is garlic  :crazy:

Their wines pretty good too   :wink::D  Anyway, I've just seen a weather watch from Metcheck and they are quite happy to also mention thunderstorms from tomorrow morning through to the afternoon. It all seems to be coming in to play! but there's always a chance it may not but I'm sure it will lol. :D

Edited by Jane Louise
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

fingers crossed then.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre

Ooh, good luck! The most intense thunderstorm I ever experienced was when I lived in Menden in Germany. We lived on top of a hill so had a perfect vantage point to watch it. The only downside was it fried our TV!

 

We just hit 30°C! Im close to the LVL 1 area of estofex, tomorrow Mannheim should be right in bullseye!

 

Marked my location in the last two maps, first map is GFS and the last two WRF

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I dont think I have seen so many strikes appear like that spread out in the matter of 1-5 mins

 

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page=1

 

That's what I alluded to a few posts back...we have ignition lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The MO and BBC forecast have the lightning symbol for me tomorrow, first time this week. That's ruined it now :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

This shows 'STRIKES' in real time... Delay is 3 to 5 seconds, not minutes yes SECONDS! http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=nl

 

You beat me to it, MG :good:

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Love this beta lightning detector.. http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

 

That's awesome!!! 

 

You can even scroll round to the US too and see that in real time :D

Edited by Harry
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