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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st May 2014 onwards

Jane Louise
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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

What naff all....Now you being just plain evil :rofl:

Yes I thought about that AFTER posting! What if.......... :laugh:

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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted

Have you seen the mesoscale discussion on Estofex? Only ever seen that once before.

I haven't ever seen it, possibilities of strong tornadoes whoa.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

No real action yet. This could be totally the opposite in several hours.

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted (edited)

It still has a lot of landfall and then the channel and then still 100's of miles before the storms could hit me.

 

*keeps calm*

 

I actually just expect a bit of rain atm. Anymore would be a bonus.

Edited by Dami
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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

Metoffice want to form a line of heavy showers in an arc over the midlands later this afternoon on their pptn charts.

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted (edited)

I haven't ever seen it, possibilities of strong tornadoes whoa.

I'm very sad at not being in Limousin today to see the action, if it materialises. I've been in various parts of France during similar events and they are awesome - there was a similar MCS event I was caught up in in mid-May a few years ago, but they've most often been in the summer months. I'll see if I can get a friend to take photos of anything interesting...

Edited by Spikecollie
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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

One se isn't the rain band to the east just off the tip of kent further west than forcast so that would mean thing are further west than forcast

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

This has got "non event" written all over it ! That's missing us by miles :(

 

You need to factor in the breakaway low which as it develops and drifts Northwards this evening, will begin to draw some of the action westwards. At the moment it is largely linear heading N/NE

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Author
Posted

Noooo don't give up yet! it's way to early. Keep watching radars it can always change directions. I'm excited but if nothing happens I know there are more opportunities :)  :bomb:  

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Lets hope that whole lot in France moves W and keeps its energy.

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Noahjoe Apprentice

Noahjoe

Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms of any kind, Snow
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
Posted

Noooo don't give up yet! it's way to early. Keep watching radars it can always change directions. I'm excited but if nothing happens I know there are more opportunities :)  :bomb:  

That's the spirit! :)

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

My thoughts are that thunder & lightning will be restricted tonight/early hours of tomorrow, perhaps happening amongst the heavier precipitation occurring in some spots.

Tomorrow late am/early afternoon would be the better opportunity.

The GFS shows two separate lobes of vortmax clearly split by NVA (negative vorticity advection) that gets relayed on the GFS precipitation charts..

post-15177-0-72713500-1400685362_thumb.gpost-15177-0-77036700-1400685377_thumb.g

The Euro 4 model doesn't go for a split quite as drastic as the GFS, that suggests to me that the vorticity will cover a much larger area, obviously a higher resolution model helps to show that.

Edited by Mapantz
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Probably worth keeping an eye on Paris webcams - looks like activity will be arriving there shortly.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

When looking at these strikes over France i must say they look very impressive, if this were over the UK it would reach from Southampton to Leeds with ease.

 

Yes! Surrey, i would love to boogie on down... lol!

 

Posted Image

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

* Deleted *

Edited by William Grimsley
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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Temp has dropped and it has started to lightly rain but not particularly stormy.

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

It has to rain now because on the way back from collecting LO someone was out washing their drive and the window cleaners just been.

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

Temp has dropped and it has started to lightly rain but not particularly stormy.

DRIZZLE! :shok:

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