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Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Starting first with the wonderful news the mighty Dan Corbett is back doing the NZ weather !!

His style hasn’t changed - the one thing he doesn’t do is use the Māori names of towns and cities so it’s Napier not Ahuriri unlike the younger Maori weather presenters who remind us Hamilton should be Kirikiriroa for example.

Back to the actual weather and here in Hawke’s Bay it’s reached only 20c and after a fine start it’s much cloudier this evening but the persistent southerly has continued to ease and tomorrow looks cloudy but warmer at 22c.

The synoptic situation which Dan explained far better is quite complex - the old LP far off to the east is nearly done and a weak ridge of HP covers both islands but it’s a cloudy system lacking the strength to break the cloud. Another push of HP off the heat of Australia seems likely to reach the South Island but for the first time since I arrived in early December we are starting to see instability over the northern Tasman and Dan suggested we could see a new LP form to the north west of North Island next week with a more humid spell of easterly or north easterly winds developing.

By Friday we have a small LP coming off the New South Wales coast and that will move north east to sit off the far north of North Island by Sunday leaving Northland and Auckland potentially unsettled with rain.

The latest GFS has this LP dominating New Zealand’s weather next week - deepening and first moving south west and then east across the Lower North Island so potentially an unsettled but warmer week but that’s a long way off.

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Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Thursday afternoon in Hawke’s Bay and we’ve had a decent day with light winds and sunny periods - not unbroken sunshine as there have been cloudier periods especially this morning and a SE wind has kept the maximum temperature to 22c.

Pressure remains high to the south of New Zealand with a weak ridge extending across both islands. Pressure is low to the north west with one small LP close to the Queensland coast and a trough extending south to a more significant LP in the Southern Ocean. To the east of this a north or north east flow covers the east of the Tasman and the west coasts of both the North and South islands. A new area of LP to the north is moving south to reach the upper North Island by Saturday bringing rain to Northland and Auckland. This will phase with the LP off the Australian coast to form a broad trough to the north and north west while the HP remains to the south and south east and between these a light east or northeast flow covers both islands by the end of the weekend.

Next week is proving problematic - the new pattern of LP to the north and northwest and HP to the south and southeast looks set to continue so several days of onshore winds for Hawke’s Bay suggesting a more unsettled theme with rain or showers at times.

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Sunday evening in New Zealand and most of the country has had a fine weekend with plenty of sunshine albeit still plenty of cloud at times.

Napier got to 24c today but the easterly onshore wind was noticeable in the afternoon.

The synoptic situation is fairly simple - between HP to the southwest of South Island and LP close to the north west of North Island we have an easterly flow over most of the two islands. Tomorrow the LP to the north will become a more complex feature expanding to the north and east and by Tuesday the trough will be over Northland with rain pushing south into Auckland and the Bay of Plenty as the ridge to the south declines.

By Wednesday the trough covers most of the North Island so I’m expecting an unsettled day with showers and possibly thunderstorms.

The current GFS suggests a continuation of the unsettled theme especially for the South Island but with improving weather for the North as HP sets up to the north west - this will bring back a west or southwest flow depending on the position and orientation.

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

The evening news saw Dan Corbett promoted to the first 15 minutes with rain warnings for Northland, Auckland, the Coromandel and the Bay of Plenty.

It’s been a fine day here in Hawke’s Bay with an easterly onshore flow and temperatures at 22c. 

The complex trough to the north and northwest of the North Island is pulling frontal systems south into the upper North Island. The LP remains just off Cape Reinga before starting to ease east on Wednesday. I’m not sure how much rain will reach us - I think we’ll have a dry day tomorrow but might get some rain overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

GFS and NZ Met Service suggest some energy from the ever present Southern Ocean troughs will phase north across the east coasts of both islands suggesting a brief unsettled spell at the end of the week before pressure rises over the weekend and next week is looking fine with a large area of HP setting up just to the east of New Zealand but we’ve been here before and as in the Northern Hemisphere, T+240 charts need to be viewed with a bucket load of salt so we’ll see.

The immediate concern for the far North is heavy rain falling on very dry ground and the possibility of flash flooding.

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Tuesday evening in Hawke’s Bay and we’ve had a dry but increasingly cloudy day as the weather in the north flirts with the east of the North Island. 23c was our maximum. We are forecast light rain tonight and tomorrow morning while elsewhere (New Plymouth in the west sheltered from the east wind) it’s been fine and hot with temperatures close to 30c.

Up in Northland and around Auckland there has been heavy thundery rain - Kaikohe had just over three inches of rain (76mm) from midnight to 5pm with much of Northland getting over two inches (50 mm).

The synoptic situation as of 7pm local has a broad but shallow trough with centres over Cape Reinga and north of the Bay of Plenty with a north easterly flow over the east of the North Island. Tomorrow sees the trough broaden but fill over the Bay of Plenty with the emphasis of rain switching to our old friend Gisborne and the area north of the Toluga River.

Further south, the HP ridge which has brought fine weather to the South Island will collapse tomorrow allowing a trough to approach from the south and southwest with a cold front set to introduce rain and cooler air by the end of the week. By then the trough over the north will have moved east to be replaced by a weak ridge of HP from the north so something warmer and more settled for us by the end of the week.

The mobile outlook continues into next week with the latest GFS suggesting quite a deep LP coming off the Tasman will cross New Zealand just after the weekend before pressure rises and if we can believe T+240 charts (bucket of salt available) we’re set to leave January and enter February on a much more seasonal note with warm, dry and fine conditions for much of both islands but we’ll see.

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Wednesday evening in a damp Hawke’s Bay. A disappointing day with a lot of cloud and occasional mainly light rain driven on to the coast by a SE wind. To be fair, we were on the fringe - Gisborne had nearly 70 mm of rain in the last 24 hours with Wairoa not far behind.

That “rainmaker” (thank you Dan) is heading away east and tomorrow looks much better with sunshine and 25c forecast. 

Currently, it’s a fine example of a country as large as New Zealand having lots of different weather. Down in the far south, Wanaka reached 31c today but a cold front moving slowly onshore will drag that down to 22c.

Up in the north, we’re promised two decent days before the next “rainmaker” (thank you again, Dan) comes off the Tasman aided by a push of energy from ex-Tropical Cyclone Stan which is off the west coast of Australia (apparently) on Saturday. A weak ridge sits off to the east.

Looking at the current GFS, the LP fills as it crosses the lower North Island on Sunday but extends to cover most of both islands.

From that nadir, however, it’s looking we will see a pattern change next week - one HP will move in from the west with another HP cell from south of Australia joining the party and by the first day of next month we’ll have a large HP centered over the Chatham Islands and pulling in a warm NE winds pulling temperatures back into the upper 20s or even low 30s.

Let’s hope.

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Saturday afternoon in Napier and it’s a gorgeous day, warm and sunny. In truth, we’ve had a decent little spell since midweek albeit with cloudier periods and a refreshing onshore easterly. This has shifted north easterly this morning which draws in warmer tropical air so we have 26c scheduled today and 27c forecast for tomorrow.

Remembering we’re “the other way round”, north easterly and northerly winds mean an LP is approaching from the west and that’s what’s happening. The LP is moving slowly east from the Tasman and will cross the central North Island during tomorrow and Monday, filling as it does so we’re not looking at large amounts of rain here I think but the Bay of Plenty and the Ruahine Ranges will get a soaking.

By Monday, the LP will be absorbed into a broader trough off the east coast of the South Island and the southerly clearance will be moving through both islands.

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Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Sunday evening in Hawke’s Bay and the weather was the top story on the evening news.

A small town in Northland called Mangawhai was hit by a tornado - tornadoes aren’t frequent events over here but they do happen under the right circumstances. Two people were seriously injured and fifty homes suffered varying amounts of damage when the tornado touched down. Power supplies to the whole town and surroundings and were cut.

There have also been severe storms around Hanmer Springs which recorded New Zealand’s highest temperature of 2024 at 37c.

No such dramas here in the Bay where it’s been a warm and sultry day. A few bursts of mainly light rain and we reached 28c in a NE’ly flow but the wind has swung round to the SW in the last hour or so and introduced cooler air and clearer skies. Both tomorrow and Tuesday look fine and 25c will be a very pleasant maximum.

The LP which crossed North Island overnight and today is set to clear East Cape in the early hours with a ridge in the Tasman taking over and covering most of both islands on Tuesday by which time the next frontal systems will be approaching Fjordland from the south west.

The latest GFS, however, has HP persisting to the north and east of New Zealand keeping much of the country fine for much of the week. A shallow trough will affect South Island for a couple of days before that too fades which is positive news as I am heading down south later this week and will be reporting from the West Coast for a few days.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Tuesday afternoon in Napier and it’s been a very pleasant day here despite a little cloud around lunchtime. We reached 22c today in a moderate SW wind. Tomorrow looks fine and much warmer with 29c forecast.

HP covers the North Island today but will decline tomorrow as a complex trough moves up from the south with the core of LP staying just to the south of the South Island. However, that in turn will decline as a new cell of HP builds in the central Tasman and any precipitation on the lingering front across the top of the South Island should be squeezed out so by late Thursday most of New Zealand should be dry apart from a few lingering showers over the higher ground of both islands.

I’m heading south on Thursday so the focus of my reports will shift.

It looks as though the risk of showers will continue for the South Island into Friday with a shallow LP over the Southern Alps.

The latest GFS suggests the spell of settled summer weather will continue with a new HP setting up more or less right over both islands early next week with the threat of showers easing by the start of the month and next week (including Waitangi Day) looking fine and sunny with temperatures for the west coast of the South Island in the low 20s.

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

 stodge how close are NZ summers to UK summers?

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

 cheeky_monkey That’s a tricky one because New Zealand is so large so it has a lot of different summers.

Northland, you’d think, would be the warmest and sunniest region but it isn’t - its climate has sub tropical elements. Hawke’s Bay and the top of the South Island have more Mediterranean type summers with a lot of sunshine. The South Island, by virtue of longer days, can get very hot - places like Alexandria, Wanaka and, further north, Hanmer Springs can get into the low 30s frequently. However, the geography is also important - the South Island has the Alps which creates a rain shadow for dexpressions moving west to east so Christchurch sees much less rain than Greymouth for example. The west coast summer climate would be similar to Cornwall or the Lakes - often dull and wet but when the wind is in the east it can be glorious.

The far south - Dunedin, Invercargill and Bluff - are more like Scotland.

For the most British type summer, I’d look to the lower North Island from Wellington to New Plymouth and as far north as Dannevirke or Masterton. Wellington can be windy as those who cross the Cook Strait by ferry will attest but places like Fielding have, I think, a climate more like southern England.

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Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

A disappointing day here in Napier - it was supposed to be wall to wall sunshine from dawn to dusk but cloud developed during the afternoon and we even squeezed out a light shower - probably something heavier over the ranges.

Turned out very warm to hot with a maximum of 30c and quite humid despite a fresh SW’ly flow.

Dan Corbett did the weather tonight and it was all about “squeezing out the rain maker”. Basically, a weak frontal system across the middle of New Zealand is being killed off by heights to both north and south. We are heading south tomorrow and should arrive to decent weather in Greymouth tomorrow afternoon.

A small LP over the South Island promises a more disappointing day on Friday with rain but after that as the HP builds in a spell of fine and settled weather with temperatures in the low 20s by Monday.

Looking further ahead, February is the month where tropical cyclones to the north can impact the North Island - Gabrielle two years ago was a vicious storm. The first major ex-tropical feature is actually going to do New Zealand a favour as it will be far to the east of us and deepen substantially in the central South Pacific which will serve to prop up the HP over New Zealand next week keeping the fine and settled weather going. The latest GFS has the storm at sub 960 mb in the middle of the South Pacific Ocean (around 40 South, 130 West) by the end of next week.

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Friday afternoon on the west coast and with the Tasman visible from where we are staying, I can confirm it’s a gorgeous afternoon here albeit rather hazy at times. 

We reached 22c in a light southwesterly breeze. The trailing front which has lingered across the Cook Strait may get a brief re-invigoration with a new shallow LP forming over the Nelson and Blenheim areas tomorrow which promises a few showers but by Sunday the HP over the Tasman is back in charge and is strengthening on Monday suggesting a continuation of the fine and settled conditions in this part of the world.

GFS suggests the settled spell will hold until later in the coming week when a small LP will form to the south of New Zealand as a result of some energy coming up from the Southern Ocean. That might bring some more unsettled conditions for a while to the South Island but far from certain at this point.

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Saturday evening in Greymouth and after a cloudy morning it’s been a fine afternoon though some cloud has returned recently with a top temperature of 21c. Tomorrow looks fine with a similar temperature.

The persistent frontal system across the top of the South Island has kept it damp in Nelson and Marlborough and a weak cold front is affecting Stewart Island and the far south but the HP in Tasman continues to dominate and will move onshore on Monday with a ridge across the South Island.

It looks as though we’ll be fine for much of the week but the HP will decline NE allowing a trough to approach the far south by Thursday bringing unsettled conditions but the extent of that is far from clear and it looks as though HP will build back by next weekend though that’s far from certain at this stage.

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Sunday afternoon on the west coast of the South Island and another very pleasant day with sunshine and patchy cloud.

The maximum temperature today was 21c in a light SW’ly wind. Tomorrow and Tuesday look similar with perhaps more of a westerly by the end of Tuesday.

A frontal system will brush the far south tomorrow and may introduce a little rain to Fiordland and could set off some showers over the Southern Alps on Tuesday but nothing too dramatic.

Most of next week looks reasonable but the HP will wax and wane a little allowing a trough to form to the east of the South Island offering the chance of more unsettled conditions with GFS forecasting a more noticeable LP in the Tasman by the end of next weekend but that’s a way ahead.

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Monday evening and another glorious summer’s day on the west coast.

Mostly sunny today though some cloud and the wind moved to a light southerly as the HP in the Tasman moved closer to the South Island. 21c however was very pleasant. Another fine day likely tomorrow and a notch warmer with an easterly breeze setting up which brings warmer air over the Southern Alps so 23c likely with little or no cloud.

The HP will decline slowly with a shallow trough perhaps developing over the far south before a new HP builds from the west. A very deep LP (953 mb) is far to the east of the Chathams but that’s helping maintain the settled weather over New Zealand for now. I also suspect that in turn is maintaining the very unsettled conditions over northern Queensland with the heavy tropical downpours.

The latest GFS suggests little change through the week but with pressure slowly falling over New Zealand as new LP approach from both north and south. A small tropical LP looks set to affect the North Island while we have a shallow LP passing over Fiordland so I suspect we will see a greater risk of rain and showers by the weekend before HP builds in again from the west next week.

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Waitangi Day here in New Zealand and after a fine start here on the West Coast of the South Island, the cloud has rolled in from the Tasman in the past couple of hours.

Normally one of the wetter parts of New Zealand, the West Coast is having one of its driest summers in the last 20 years with water restrictions amid declining reservoir capacities. Temperatures reached 22c yesterday but a notch cooler today.

Tomorrow looks cloudier again with showers possible though nothing too serious. This will be associated with a weak frontal system over this part of the country which links back to a weak trough to the west. That shouldn’t last, however, with HP building back over the upper South Island by the weekend.

Next week looks pretty settled for most - perhaps some showers developing over the higher ground of both islands but otherwise dry and with HP close to the South Island, sunny for many. Beyond that, just a hint of the HP retreating east at the end of next week and LP encroaching from both north west and south west but far from decided as yet.

 

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Kia Ora from a fine West Coast Sunday morning 🙂

It’s not been plain sailing here however - Friday was mainly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain and yesterday was mostly wet with a couple of heavy bursts. The afternoon saw a considerable improvement with the cloud lifting and breaking to sunny periods.

One nagging frontal system has finally broken up under the overarching HP but another will inch up the west coast overnight from Fiordland but that too will probably break up to just cloud and by Monday all looks set fair for New Zealand as pressure continues to build from Tasmania.

 

 

Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

Monday morning and my final full day on the West Coast as we head back to Napier tomorrow.

We’ve had mostly very good weather here with only a couple of rainy spells and the rivers and creeks are very low - the local paper says it’s been the driest summer for 20 years here. The pattern has favoured the west coasts of both islands of late with the eastern side seeing cooler and wetter conditions than might be expected.

A cloudy start again here but it should brighten though the risk of showers to the high ground of both islands remains and there have been some thunderstorms reported on both islands.

A trailing frontal system linked to a very shallow LP persists across the south of the South Island and has brought a spell of overnight rain to Otago and Canterbury though that is moving away south east. HP is building in again from the south west and this is slowly killing off the front.

Further north, a slack pressure gradient means a renewed risk of showers over the northern ranges and Hawke’s Bay tomorrow so while we may leave in sunshine we could well arrive to damp unsettled conditions.

The Southwest Pacific pressure map suggests a continued improving trend and by midweek the whole country should be fine and settled under a large area of HP centered over Marlborough.

The latest GFS suggests the fine spell will last into the weekend but by Sunday the HP will start to decline and edge east with freshening northerly winds (remember where we are) heralding a new LP off the Tasman. This, however, looks set to move SE past the far south while the HP intensifies over the Chathams and sends a ridge back west so while parts of the south, mainly Fiordland and parts of Southland could see some rain and showers, the North Island could well remain fine throughout.

That’s a long way off and as we know putting your faith in T+216 charts rarely ends well.

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting Synoptics.
  • Location: Napier, New Zealand
Posted

As the more astute may have observed, I have returned to Napier after a 12-day break with the brother-in-law and his family on the west coast of the South Island.

The best coast weather was arguably saved for the trip to airport with sunshine, clear skies and a fantastic view of the Southern Alps including Mount Cook with snow on the summit.

The journey to Christchurch was a contrast in weather - to the west, clear skies but across the Alps, cloudier conditions and we disembarked at Christchurch Airport it was noticeably cooler and windier. Then to Napier and as we landed there it was evident there had been morning rain but there was a clearance and as skies broke and the Sun emerged, it was quickly turning warm.

Cloudy, however, currently but no sign of rain and the real thunderstorm activity over the Waikato and to the south of Auckland.

The current synoptic situation has a large HP to the southwest of the South Island and a weak frontal system with a shallow LP over the upper North Island. Tomorrow looks set to see continued shower activity over the high ground of both islands but overall a lot of fine weather especially for coastal areas. Thursday sees that shower threat diminish significantly on the North Islands but remain especially over the Southern Alps.

A fine spell to end the week looks booked in and by Sunday the HP has moved east and intensified further over the Chathams so a N’ly flow sets up ahead of the next trough coming in from the Tasman but that looks set to move south east to the south west of the South Island so the main focus of the unsettled weather early next week looks to be down south.

By this time next week, the LP will ease away further leaving much of New Zealand in a slack westerly flow pending the next push of HP out of south eastern Australia but that will be the end of my New Zealand weather reports as we start the journey back oop north.


 

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