Chase Day 14 - Slight Risk W TX, E NM

[nsrobins]

I think SPC might be underdoing tor chances a tad this evening with the 2% cover. True no inhibition to speak of so ppn might be a bit messy but any discrete cells that maintain their form until the LLJ picks-up might well produce. There is a sharp directional shift at around 800mb from 21Z.The DL stays in NM so I'd be getting down the I27 towards Brownfield TX or even Hobbs, NM today. 

[chionomaniac]

For me, I would choose the far SE corner of NM - best LI, CAPE, backing winds with fairly good lapse rates going by the latest RAP. Hopefully the increasing LLJ late afternoon can increase the chance of a tornado. Closest place I could find to my target is Kermit TX, so I would start there - from what I gather the team are in Carlsbad, NM, not too far away so perhaps not too early a rise when they awake!

[nsrobins]

I don't disagree with the target that's slightly further South. Infact I often give more weight to DL and any bulge over wind vectors in these TX/NM set-ups so going on 09Z RAP I might shift down to Midland/Odessa TX. I didn't know the team was in Carlsbad but it's not a bad place to start the morning.

[nsrobins]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0181.html

 

Tornado Watch issued for areas previously identified. One assumes the team is heading SW but the live stream and position tracker is not working for me.

[nsrobins]

Well we have cool dome modification now - that's a new one to me.Note to myself before going out next season: Find out about cool dome modification!

 

Short-term tornado risk enhanced - cell near Odessa looks likely. 

[Dorsetbred]

Seems like a god bit of forecasting there with two cells tornado warned south of Odessa. Well done Neil.