Storm Chase Tour 3 - Advanced thoughts

[nsrobins]

Well the start of Tour 3 could be explosive or I'm no judge of the GFS.A classic pattern develops late this week and through the weekend with what looks like the richest moisture return into the central plains this year ahead of an upper low and attendant DL moving off the high terrain. There's probably no D5-6 on SPC yet because the potential targets are too numerous!Saturday into Sunday could be big for W KS up into SW NE. Should monitor the models once into NAM range.

[Paul]

Thanks Neil, T3's first chase day is on Monday so may be an opportunity for the tail end of t2 as well

[nsrobins]

Thanks Neil, T3's first chase day is on Monday so may be an opportunity for the tail end of t2 as well

Of course - a bonus end of tour and a bonus start to T3!

[nsrobins]

No clear signal to allow specific areas to be identified for Sun and Mon as yet.

 

Saturday looks like a Northern Plains day now with shear maximised across NE WY which may be a trip to far perhaps? 

[Dorsetbred]

Any more thoughts Neil?

[nsrobins]

I would be very surprised if D4-6 didn't appear on SPC this morning given the favourable synoptics.Saturday is as I said a Northern show and out of reach. However, Sunday and Monday look potentially decent for the CO/KS region as the lee trough pushes very slowly east, with the DL dragging along. Indeed from GFS bulk shear and wind vectors you can guess SRH values in far W KS on Sunday eve may be significant. 

[Dorsetbred]

Thanks Neil, for the update, so a charge north bound seems on the cards Sunday once we get everyone here, mind you if BA are tardy as they were for us, it'll be 5pm before leaving Dallas.

[nsrobins]

Thanks Neil, for the update, so a charge north bound seems on the cards Sunday once we get everyone here, mind you if BA are tardy as they were for us, it'll be 5pm before leaving Dallas.

Not so confident of tornado risk but storms should develop as far south as E KS and the OK Panhandle Sunday evening (dependant on inhibition) so maybe not so far to catch something Sunday.

[nsrobins]

More data available now on the risk for Tues night (3rd June).

Some parameters for S NE show a potential severe-end tornado risk along the synoptic warm front Tues evening as a 6o+kn 500mb jet over rides the region.

One to watch and no doubt will be discussed nearer the time.

[Dan the Man]

"Significant" tornadic activity for the Midwest tomorrow