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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Good potential for warmth from a southerly direction looking at this

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I'd not get too happy about the plume.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

t120 and t144 UKMO 850's fixed on meteociel worth the wait as it too also shows a plume of warm air to start next weekend

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Had a message from Sylvain he has said t96h will be wrong till the 00z update but as you can see above t120 & t144 is fixed

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I'd not get too happy about the plume.

 

 

 

Nor would I. The GFS anomaly looks much the same for Sat/Sun

 

Saturday 12z sees a low 993mb SW of Ireland with a front over the UK and wet in most places. The 700mb chart is similar (obviously) with a south westerly flow over the UK. So although temps are quite high, low 70s in the east, this isn't a plume.

 

Still a SW flow on Sunday but a high in the North Sea 1023mb by Monday with rain approaching from SW. Temps around 70s still.

post-12275-0-85422600-1401647332_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Its always a knife edge situation, with regards a plume. It rarely verifies from this time out and gfs 06z and 12z show an  eastward shift . The NMM 18 shows the plume in the early hours of Saturday. I repeat no model has an hold on this one, its always down to the wire, but Im hopecasting that this plume will deliver the goods...... 

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post-6830-0-86088100-1401647166_thumb.pn

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Interesting ecm op as it drifts into lala land. Will the low heights stay around greeny or transfer se as the gem op did?

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

After the initial plume (potentially quite humid and thundery for some) next Saturday pressure than begins to build for the SE though temperatures do fall it would still be warm or very warm in any sunshine

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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By t192 the 850's are on the rise again as pressure begins to build more widely mid to high 20's quite possibly for the SE, low to mid 20's widely

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I remember a day when the ECM showed a little consistency in the later frames.

Posted Image

UK trough one run, monster Euro/Scandi block and heatwave the next. :rofl:

Absolutely stunning chart though.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

WOW! this is a stunning end to ECM this evening with +16 850's making it to the UK!

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Good job it wont happen then. 12 hours ago it was a trough, and now this. Surely this means 0% confidence?

 

Im not a fan of heat so i hope the trough is right, but ive heard lots of talk about plumes the last couple of days. How rare are these? Is it a definition of a direct southerly airflow bringing the heat from Spain up?

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good job it wont happen then. 12 hours ago it was a trough, and now this. Surely this means 0% confidence?

 

Im not a fan of heat so i hope the trough is right, but ive heard lots of talk about plumes the last couple of days. How rare are these? Is it a definition of a direct southerly airflow bringing the heat from Spain up?

Some people ignore my posts, but there are a few on here who hype everything up! Plumes or Spanish plumes are very hard to forecast. And computer models really struggle with this scenario, just as they do with forecasting snow...! they often go down to the wire, and as much as I want this thundery plume  I wont hold my breath.... :closedeyes:  :closedeyes: :closedeyes: Everything goes East......  :wallbash:  :wallbash: :wallbash:

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Good job it wont happen then. 12 hours ago it was a trough, and now this. Surely this means 0% confidence?Im not a fan of heat so i hope the trough is right, but ive heard lots of talk about plumes the last couple of days. How rare are these? Is it a definition of a direct southerly airflow bringing the heat from Spain up?

Yes, agree confidence would be very low as output is changing so drastically. Spanish plumes have been rare in the last 10 years or so but not so before then with several occurring in summer in some years. Often the more severe thunderstorms would happen during these events. Edited by stainesbloke
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Good job it wont happen then. 12 hours ago it was a trough, and now this. Surely this means 0% confidence?

 

Im not a fan of heat so i hope the trough is right, but ive heard lots of talk about plumes the last couple of days. How rare are these? Is it a definition of a direct southerly airflow bringing the heat from Spain up?

The evolution does tie in nicely with the ensembles. On the other hand a block and that strength and heat looks unlikely. That is 90F territory there and something we haven't seen in a long time (July 2013 was a more UK based high, this is very much in the realms of July 2006/or summer 2003 set up). More likely the high we would get would bring mid to maybe high twenties but as many have said confidence is low is how things move on from next weekend.

 

Plumes are very hard to forecast mainly because we usually sit very close to the border between the very warm/cool air masses which make 50 miles shifts east or west much more crucial to the surface conditions. I'm still calling East/South east dry for most of Saturday and hence very warm. But I'm sure other peoples opinions will differ.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Absolutely staggering ECM output !! Lost for words lol, if this is to be the case, then 32c could easily be reached.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The plume next saturday just looks like thundery frontal rain on both GFS and GEM.

 

Posted Image

 

Afterward, all three models try to build pressure but GFS then accepts defeat.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The  Ecm  shows virtually no Plume by the weekend , but a very hot settled picture thereafter by day ten... :cc_confused:  :rofl:  :rofl: But so so, different to its previous run,,,,Needs to be Binned.. :crazy:  :crazy:  :crazy:

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Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Yes following the mean and looking for trends in the ensembles are the best way forward. Both the GFS op and control are outliers in the 12z suite. The op on the pressure & rainfall graphs and the control on the temp charts:

 

post-14819-0-34767000-1401649881_thumb.g  post-14819-0-92530000-1401649891_thumb.g

 

However the GEFS as a whole still trending the Atlantic trough, allowing the Euro ridge to build and at the moment it is relatively consistent that the UK is going to be on the cusp of the pressure rise. Certainly after D5 the 2m temp mean keeps London above average right out till the end of FI. 

 

No surprise ECM tonight has abandoned the cut off upper low and its split jet of the 0z op, thus allowing for a more amplified pattern in line with its mean and GFS. However again, at D10, it cuts off the upper low in Iberia to allow the Azores to ridge NE to reinforce the Euro ridge:

 

post-14819-0-12519000-1401650535_thumb.p

 

Though there is a small cluster similar to this in the GEFS though I still suspect this is ECM default output and that is probably not going to happen. So I will stick with the GEFS D10 mean for the moment:

 

post-14819-0-34403400-1401650637_thumb.p

 

This ties in with CFS anomaly for June: post-14819-0-05075700-1401650861_thumb.ppost-14819-0-83411400-1401650874_thumb.ppost-14819-0-18725900-1401650883_thumb.p

 

Warmer than average the further east you are; wetter than average the further west.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

ECM 850 hpa temperature anomaly at day 10..

 

 

Wait till the Express get hold of this. :laugh: 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

For the first time over the last 3-4 days the two NOAA charts at 6-10 and 8-14 do show the contour centre (6-10) and the trough (8-14) moving west with +ve heights showing a bit more for the NE quarter of the UK on the same charts. see below.

There is not much real support for this from GFS in particular with EC sort of hinting at it. Before going for this move we need all 3 to be showing very similar charts in the 6-10 day time scale to give any real belief that it will happen in that time.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

The plume next saturday just looks like thundery frontal rain on both GFS and GEM.

 

 

 

Afterward, all three models try to build pressure but GFS then accepts defeat.

 

Posted Image

 

GEFS mean has dry weather more likely than the low pressure outlook that the 12z op is showing

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

GEFS mean has dry weather more likely than the low pressure outlook that the 12z op is showing

 

Posted Image

Waiting for all this to end in tears tbh. We're looking here at something towards the days 9 and 10 juncture (after the initial potential wet plume next weekend). We could just easily see troughing managing to snake through, ala GFS FI, as HP building sufficiently. It's a winter easterly scenario, summer equivalent.
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

For the first time over the last 3-4 days the two NOAA charts at 6-10 and 8-14 do show the contour centre (6-10) and the trough (8-14) moving west with +ve heights showing a bit more for the NE quarter of the UK on the same charts. see below.

There is not much real support for this from GFS in particular with EC sort of hinting at it. Before going for this move we need all 3 to be showing very similar charts in the 6-10 day time scale to give any real belief that it will happen in that time.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

 

Waiting for all this to end in tears tbh. We're looking here at something towards the days 9 and 10 juncture (after the initial potential wet plume next weekend). We could just easily see troughing managing to snake through, ala GFS FI, as HP building sufficiently. It's a winter easterly scenario, summer equivalent.

 

Personally i'm highly skeptical for anything more than 3 fine days and a thunderstorm. As John's chart shows, the high to our east is part of a larger set of high's over the Arctic. When i think of past glorious summer months, heights over the pole don't tend to be prominent and that's why i can see the pattern eventually collapsing.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

And heres the ECM mean at day 10. It shows that the op was on the warm side of the ensembles, but on the flip side, the 0z was on the unsettled side of the ensembles. The general consensus appears to be low pressure retreating back into the Atlantic allowing higher pressure to move up from the south. The driest and warmest of the weather will be found in the SE but under southerly winds nowhere will be especially cool. Something like the op could materialise. Just because plumes are rare doesnt mean they wont happen as its the ideal set up for one to occur with low pressure to the west and high pressure over Europe.

 

Posted Image

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