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Chase Day 21 - Slight Risk W OK, W KS


nsrobins

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

I'm going to start the action today as I've had an eye on this potential for a few days now and we could have the first real classic Kansas day of the season.Tour 3 members wake to a steamy start in N TX with T2m rising to the low-30s by early afternoon and dps are elevated.The route is North towards the surface trough - DL - WF intersection today with tor risk maximised in NW C KS. Storms initiating around 21Z develop quickly and roll perpendicular off the DL into an environment with increasingly 'sufficient' shear for rotation. Note the use of the term as the best soundings aren't classic tornado producers any any means but there is ample directional shear right on the WF/DL triple to make up for initial low speed shear.

 

Adjust using subsequent RAP updates and obs but I'd be looking to be in Hays, KS by 3pm if that is possible.

 

Note storms also likely further down the DL into the OK Panhandle area after 22Z which may be a more reachable target.

 

PS: Keeping an eye on Tues 3rd June - models holding firm on a potential big day in N KS

PPS: The GPS location feature is stuck and has had you south of Dalhart for a week now. Is it just me? 

Edited by nsrobins
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

My starting point today would be Oakley, KS, where hopefully the DL will bulge. I suspect that the team may not make it there in time and will have to chase a little further south. 

 

Neil, it is not just you, the team have been stuck in Dalhart for a week too for me. Perhaps someone can give the GPS locator a kick at changeover?

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

PPS: The GPS location feature is stuck and has had you south of Dalhart for a week now. Is it just me? 

I commented on that a few days ago, Neil - either none of the team spotted my post or they have other priorities at present.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheforecaster
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Yep Southern target for us today but would have targeted N Central Kansas today if I could have made it, so a trip back up my favourite road (NOT) The I35 Then probably at this stage towards Woodward and Dodge.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Paul if you can get into the OK Panhandle around Laverne you might be ok from 22Z as RAP generates a cell or two here.My virtual target is still N C KS though and I might move North of Hays depending on subtle boundaries - there look to be a few according to latest obs.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Not sure where the team are - tracker still stuck. Cells in W KS rather high-based but structure should develop.The line/cells in N KS in richer shear and moisture but not looking too organised at present.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Absoutely fantastic days chasing, meandered up towards Woodward and got onto a pair of stunning Supercells that just sat in front of us for about an hour, first was a Classic and the 2nd an LP Supercell, lots of gasps and oohs and aahs from the newbies who were picking their jaws up off the floor.

 

The 2nd part of the team in Wichita overnight also got slammed by the line at their hotel so we both scored today.

 

Pictures to follow off my Iphone tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Any stream for today? Getting withdrawal symptoms!

 

The streaming car wasn't on the chase yesterday, back today though :)

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