[Blog] Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 4 Issued 1 June

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This is the 4th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],

Previous Blogs Summaries
No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Postive
No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Postive
No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral

At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

1. CFS Monthly Averages
2. CFS Raw Daily Runs
3. CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily

By next week, we will be starting to get into Long Range for the festival, and this will be reflected in the forecast.

So moving on to the detail.
1. CFS Monthly Averages

 

Rainfall

 

June - Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (120-150%) , and also above average in Southern England (100-120%), and worse than last weeks forecast.

 

July -  Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (160%), and below average in Southern areas (80%), however the area of below average rainfall is further north than last week and covers a great areas.

 

Pressure

 

June - Pressure is forecast to be higher than average in Northern UK, and less than average in southern areas, in both cases worse than last week.

July - Pressure is forecast to be marginally above average, which is slightly worse compared to last week.

 

Temps

 

June - Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, the positive anomaly slightly less generally than last week.

 

July -  Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, almost identical compared to last week.

 

Summaries -

June - All in all, uniformly worse forecast compared to last week, however this is also picking up that short term models are suggesting a wet and unsettled start to June, so no massive surprise.

 

July - In summary, looking slightly drier than last week, but with slightly lower pressure.

 

CFS Raw Daily Runs

CFS RunDate  obtain  Pressure [Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure]                      Winds    Rain                                             Temps 24 May 00HZ  25-May  LP over west to start, High Pressure building in from SW, settled thereafter      NW     Mostly Dry, only odd slight shower Wed           Light Orange to Orange 25 May 00HZ  26-May  HP over the UK for the festival period.                                           NE     Mostly Dry, perhaps odd chance of shower         Light Orange 26 May 00HZ  27-May  LP mostly in control, HP just away to south                                    SW to NW  Wet Wed, Thurs and Sunday, Dry Other days        Yellow / Light Orange 27 May 00HZ  28-May  HP to start, LP for a time from NW, then HP ridges for weekend                    SW     Dry/Light showers Wed-Fri+Sun, frontal rain sat  Light Orange to Orange 28 May 00HZ  29-May  Battle between LP to North and ridging HP to south HP wins in end                 SW     Some rain, but southern areas miss worst of it   Yellow / Light Orange 29 May 00HZ  30-May  Battle between LP to North and ridging HP to south, LP generally on top           SW     Rain periods at times, some heavy, some dry days Yellow / Light Orange 30 May 00HZ  31-May  HP building from SW, LP to North not too far away mid festival                    NW     Odd Shower but mostly Dry                        Yellow / Orange (cooling down)

An average score of 6.85 (entirely subjective), but more forecasts going for a mostly dry festival 3, than a washout 1, with 3 somewhere in between, going on past records this is pretty good.

3. CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily (Source http://www.meteociel...fsme_cartes.php )

Overall Summary

June

Date      850Hpa      Temp 2m (G)  z500 (G)    PRMSL (G)     Rainfall 25-May    0c to +1c   +1c to +2c   -1 to  0     0 to +1      Blue S England, Red Midland/Wales 26-May    1c to +2c   +2c to +3c   +1 to +2    -1 to  0      Blue S England, Light Red Midlands 27-May    1c to +2c   +2c to +3c   +4 to +5    +1 to +2      Blue all England/Wales 28-May   -2c to -1c           0c   -8 to -7    -5 to -4      Red all UK 29-May    0c to +1c   +1c to +2c   -3 to -2    -4 to -3      White / Red Southern UK 30-May    1c to +2c   +1c to +2c   +1 to +2    -1 to  0      Blue SW / S Cent S, Light Red Midlands 31-May          +2c   +2c to +3c   +3 to +4          -1      Red Midlands, light Red Southern England

In terms of upper air Temps 6 are marginally above average, 1 is below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average.
In terms of pressure (at z500) 4 are above average, and 3 below average, and at Sea Level (PRMSL) 2 are above average and 5 below average
In terms of rainfall, 2 are positive, 3 are negative, 2 are mixed

The averages in terms of pressure are worse than last week, but the temps are slightly better.

Overall a further slight worsening in the forecast compared to last week.

July

Date      850Hpa      Temp 2m (G)   z500 (G)   PRMSL (G)     Rainfall 25-May    0c to +1c   +1c to +2c    0 to +1     0 to +1      Blue SW Eng, Red SE Eng/Midlands 26-May   -1c to  0c   +2c to +3c   -2 to -1    -1 to  0      Blue S Eng, Red Midlands 27-May    0c to +1c   +1c to +2c    0 to +1    -2 to -1      Blue S Eng, Red Midlands 28-May   -1c to  0c    0c to +1c   -1 to  0    +1 to +2      Blue S Eng, Light Red Midlands 29-May   -1c to  0c    0c to +1c   -5 to -4    -4 to -3      Mixed S Eng, Red Midlands 30-May    0c to +1c   +1c to +2c   -1 to  0    -1 to  0      Blue S Eng, Red Midlands 31-May    0c to +1c   +1c to +2c   +4 to +5           3      Blue S Eng, Light Red Midlands

In terms of upper air Temps 4 are marginally above average, 3 are below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average.
In terms of pressure (at z500) 3 are above average, and 4 below average, and at Sea Level (PRMSL) 3 are above average and 4 below average
In terms of rainfall, 2 are positive, 2 are negative, 3 are mixed

The averages in terms of pressure and temps are worse than last week. Overall a further slight worsening in the forecast compared to last week.

All details are on a spreadsheet in the main discussion thread.

Summary

A contrast in the forecast, the monthly forecast for June have worsened compared to last week, however this is to be expected given the current forecast for the start of June now which are in the reliable time frame. The long range forecast from Raw CFS are quite good for late June, so a contradiction.

Does a bad start to June make a bad end to June more likely, given the worsening forecasts for June overall, I am suggesting a slightly negative trend, but with the previso that this is partly explained by the bad start to June.

So this weeks forecast is Neutral to Slightly Negative.

 

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Edited June 3, 2014 by J10