Chase Day 24 - Slight Risk OK, KS, NE

[nsrobins]

Onwards and upwards from last night's blow-out and a slight risk in above areas.

At 21Z a trough is located from OK Panhandle ENE across S KS. A DL is set-up N-S from E CO to NM.The issue I have is inhibition, although RAP erodes this enough in far N OK and S KS to allow a cell or two to form maybe far SE KS or W OK in the upslope where surface winds are ESE.Shear should be sufficient for supercells and in the de-cluttered air some scenic cells may form.

Need to get below the area of inhibition so Woodward, OK 

[nsrobins]

UPDATE: Slight change of plan. RAP 11Z has decreased inhibition just on and north of the boundary across SW KS and indeed latest SPC has upped tornado risk to 5% here - in response maybe to reduced CIN and increased LLJ from 21Z. 850mb winds no great shakes at about 30kns but these are over surface winds from the East so directional shear very high. EHI values around 5+.

I'm now back to my earlier thoughts of Meade/Liberal, KS

 

PS: Half an eye on potential for N C OK on Friday 6th June.All the ingredients are there - but we've said this before!

Edited June 4, 2014 by nsrobins

[Roger J Smith]

The day one risk maps look a bit off to me, I would expect the most severe outbreak to be about where they have a gap between two slight risk zones, in east-central KS and it may turn out to be moderate risk material. However, a bit further west might be more conducive for isolating the best viewing conditions available, at least for the mid-afternoon period. By late afternoon and evening, looks to me as though a large cluster of severe storms will be located along a frontal boundary near or just north of Pratt to Hutchison to Emporia (KS) question being whether this unleashes severe weather before or after sunset, looks to be peaking around 03-06z. My virtual chase position for mid-day would be somewhere northwest of Wichita KS. Book overnight stay for tonight's indicated light show around Emporia KS or anywhere else in east-central KS.

[nsrobins]

You could be right Roger. The greatest (and probably only) limiting factor to initiation in SW KS is cap, which may be a lid too far here but we'll see.

[nsrobins]

I assume from your GPS tracker you are going for upslope in E CO.

I still think a cell or two will fire in SW or SC KS as CIN erodes in an hour or so - if it can stay on the boundary currently draped across S KS then it could produce. 

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys yes we are going to take our chances in Eastern and NE Colorado today which places us perfecly for tomorrow as well

[IanM]

Oh hi Colorado, nice of you to come out to play

[davehsug]

Is there much lightning? Not coming over on the stream.

[bristolstormchaser]

Just become severe warned, good work guys :-)

[Dan the Man]

My area had a tornado warning about 3:30 today - quite a surreal situation, something I've never experienced before.

 

The eventual funnel hit a school about 15 miles away.

[IanM]

A quick phone shot of the tornado warned storm

[IanM]

Another pretty cool, day, just the elusive tornado missing, though a multi vortex hit 8 miles up the road once we parked up to eat in the late evening

 

We also got hit by the RFD and hail while eating - Tom will have some video to post later, mine somehow went horribly wrong...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nsrobins]

Well done chaps. The upslope fired whilst I was virtually sitting in SE KS looking at sunshine and munching burgers. 

[Tom Lynch]

Video from last night 

 

our van has suffered quite a bit of hail damage 

 

 

Tom

[Tom Lynch]

South east of town

 

 

I think driver had to be airlifted to hospital

 

Tom

Edited June 5, 2014 by Tom Lynch