Storm and convective discussion 9th June

[Paul]

Please continue here, more quite potent storms possible across part of the UK today, and some potentially very severe ones in parts of Europe too...

[Cheshire Freeze]

The atmosphere seems highly unstable already today with little cells popping up. Some areas could get lucky today once the sun gets to work.

[Noahjoe]

Paul it's the 9th of June? 

Edited June 9, 2014 by Noah Williams

[Noahjoe]

Anyway did anyone notice that on the estofex warning it mentioned in the discussion that the only reason that a LEVEL 2 (!!!) wasn't issued was because of the limited chance of hail? They said it's a "High level 1" 

[Supacell]

Anyway did anyone notice that on the estofex warning it mentioned in the discussion that the only reason that a LEVEL 2 (!!!) wasn't issued was because of the limited chance of hail? They said it's a "High level 1" 

 

It certainly looks good today, dare I say it but it looks better than Saturday did to my eyes. The sun is out and the atmosphere is ripe for thunderstorms, hence storms already breaking out. It shouldn't be thundery rain either today, should be proper thunderstorms. Why do I have to be at work!!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some hefty cores developing SE Wales area now.

[Harry]

Please continue here, more quite potent storms possible across part of the UK today, and some potentially very severe ones in parts of Europe too...

9th May??

[Noahjoe]

It certainly looks good today, dare I say it but it looks better than Saturday did to my eyes. The sun is out and the atmosphere is ripe for thunderstorms, hence storms already breaking out. It shouldn't be thundery rain either today, should be proper thunderstorms. Why do I have to be at work!!!!

That is unfortunate...but I've got a day off today, work can wait

[Weather-history]

The sky is black to my south.

[Staffordshire]

My last dream before I woke up was of me witnessing a huge storm coming in with amazing cloud structure, please be foreshadowing... I can dream ay

[Cheshire Freeze]

Kev (Weather history), I hope you get a decent storm today....I have a feeling your location might just do well

[Noahjoe]

Cloudy here, not threatening but feeling much more humid

[Weather-history]

Kev (Weather history), I hope you get a decent storm today....I have a feeling your location might just do well

Thanks Crewe.Shower mass is approaching now. No thunder though.

[Sweatyman]

Some crazy clouds now in brum v dark got pic but can't post it with I phone?

[lorenzo]

Estofex update for those who missed it rolling out late last evening.

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 06:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 08 Jun 2014 22:31 Forecaster: PUCIK

 

A level 3 was issued for NW France and BENELUX for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 2 was issued for much of France and NW Germany mainly for very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for England mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for E Germany and Poland mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Russia and Ukraine mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

 

SYNOPSIS

 

In between of the deep low over the Atlantic and the ridge over Central Europe, strong southerly to southwesterly flow will advect hot airmass characterised by steep mid-level lapse rates from N Africa towards France, Germany and then around the ridge towards Poland.

 

Potentially dangerous situation will evolve over France, BENELUX and NW Germany just ahead of the diffuse, wavy frontal boundary that will remain quasistationary close to French coastline during the most of the day. Another low will slowly dig SE-wards across NW Russia. Moderate to strong NW-ly flow is simulated at its southwestern flank. With prevailing low geopotentials over much of Eastern Europe, so scattered DMC is expected also there, albeit severe threat will be smaller than in case of France / BENELUX.

 

DISCUSSION

 

... England ...

 

Models show that somewhat warmer, moist airmass should advect over E England as the wave in the frontal boundary propagates towards northwest. However, edge of the EML plume should remain to the east, so that MLCAPE values will stay on the order of hundreds of J/kg. As strong flow ovespreads the region, over 25 m/s of DLS is forecast.

 

All models agree on initiation along the lifting warm wave of the boundary. There will be a potential for isolated supercell development, which would be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. However, lack of steep mid-level lapse rates may limit the hail threat, so that a high-end Lvl 1 instead of Lvl 2 is issued.

 

... France towards BENELUX and NW Germany ...

 

Very dangerous setup will develop over the region by the late afternoon hours. With pronounced overlap of low-level moisture and steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models agree on the development of high to extreme CAPE values, with Central France towards BENELUX and NW Germany having the highest odds of seeing 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the late evening. As 500 hPa winds between 15 to 25 m/s overlap with backed low-level flow thanks to the presence of the surface trough, strong DLS (20-25 m/s) is forecast. By the late evening, with the enhancement of the low-level wind field with deepening trough, SREH values will increase especially over NW France / BENELUX (with values over 300 m2/s2 possible). Such setup will be very conducive for intense supercells / bow-echoes, capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Towards the evening (beyond 18 UTC), as LLS strengthens, tornadoes will become a threat as well, especially if isolated supercells manage to persist into this time frame.

 

However, models do not simulate any pronounced QG forcing to rapidly reduce CIN. This will, on one hand, allow for CAPE to build-up steadily towards the late afternoon. On the other hand, it is highly questionable how many storms will initiate and where exactly. There is considerable disagreement by individual models. Overnight / morning convection, along with the outflow boundaries laid by these may be crucial in this setup. Current thinking is, that the foci for late afternoon initiation will be NW France, along the surface convergence zone, with storms spreading into BENELUX. It is likely that these storms will be isolated supercells at first, with subsequent clustering resulting in a fast forward propagating bow-echo. Towards the night, Southern to Central France may see convective initiation, with another possiblity of MCS travelling north towards N France.

 

Level 3 was introduced for the region, where the highest probability of high storm coverage is forecast and where high density of extremely severe events is most likely. With that in mind, any spot in the Level 2 may see extremely severe storms in these highly favourable conditions, provided storms can initiate.

 

 

[Staffordshire]

Very good feeling about today, will speak later

[Chris.R]

Think I may do well today. Had some heavy showers already, no thunder yet though. Had a few little thundery showers pass by just out to see yesterday evening which was a surprise. Supposed to get pretty warm today as well, and hopefully surface heating will be adequate.

[Noahjoe]

I've only had some light rain and a rumble of thunder from a very active storm that died out over the channel since all this storm talk began on friday night

[Stormraider]

Cells around Hereford look nasty and heading our way. Wonder if they'll last?

[lorenzo]

Stunning MCS mothership already in play...

 

Wow !

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa.html

 

http://www.meteo-mc.fr/satellite-ir-anime-eu.php

 

[Matty23]

Yea looking at the cells approaching Hereford hope they last all the way to shrewsbury

[Noahjoe]

Stunning MCS mothership already in play...

 

Wow !

Capture.PNGdownload.jpg

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa.html

 

http://www.meteo-mc.fr/satellite-ir-anime-eu.php

That explains the cloud where I am then

[Harry]

Looking at the latest output it looks increasingly clear that my region will miss most if not all of the thundery activity. 

 

Looking pretty good for areas immediately N and NW of London then running NE. Perhaps E Kent tonight, otherwise a disappointing one for me I think hey ho!

[cheese]

It's kind of hard to get excited about the possibilities today in the UK when northern France is currently being destroyed by aliens.

 

But keep an eye on the Brussels cams, as that huge cell leaving Paris is heading straight for the Belgian capital.

 

http://www.bruxelles.be/artdet.cfm/5679

 

http://www.bruxelles.be/artdet.cfm/5678

Edited June 9, 2014 by cheese

[Noahjoe]

Looking at the latest output it looks increasingly clear that my region will miss most if not all of the thundery activity. 

 

Looking pretty good for areas immediately N and NW of London then running NE. Perhaps E Kent tonight, otherwise a disappointing one for me I think hey ho!

I don't think you can rule out anything yet?