Poor Met/BBC temperature forecasts

[Alex]

Has anyone noticed how poor these have been recently? Today my location (Chelmsford) was predicted a max of 21c - it is in fact 25c with temperature still rising? I have noticed under doing the maxes more over the last few weeks!

[johnholmes]

Has anyone noticed how poor these have been recently? Today my location (Chelmsford) was predicted a max of 21c - it is in fact 25c with temperature still rising? I have noticed under doing the maxes more over the last few weeks!

 

Is that the model BBC output or are you watching BBC tv and the official weather forecaster?

If the former then that will happen much more often than the tv official forecast.

Try using the Met O website that will be more accurate.

Don't start me off on why that is!

[J10]

Is that the model BBC output or are you watching BBC tv and the official weather forecaster?

If the former then that will happen much more often than the tv official forecast.

Try using the Met O website that will be more accurate.

Don't start me off on why that is!

 

I don't like to bash the Met Office and I like them and their website, but their accuracy lately has been pretty poor, quite often complete change around less than 24 hrs ahead and then still wrong. As an example last Wednesday was forecast to be cloudy and dry, it ended up being a washout.

 

Yesterday initially forecast to be dry, then very heavy showers, it ended being mostly dry. Although to be fair, the current weather situation means that a few miles can make a big difference.

 

How it the predominant weather symbol for the day determined, often this bears no resemblance at all to the weather that day.

 

I will continue to use these forecast as they are among the best out there, just a bit frustrating trying to rely on them atm.

Edited June 9, 2014 by J10

[Alex]

Is that the model BBC output or are you watching BBC tv and the official weather forecaster?If the former then that will happen much more often than the tv official forecast.Try using the Met O website that will be more accurate.Don't start me off on why that is!

Hi John, both the met office and BBC websites have been poor recently. I must say I don't watch too many TV forecasts so can't be sure. The main gripe though is that the models show a temperature forecast only for the BBC and Met websites to show much lower figures. Today was an outrage - Writtle is 1mile from me and it reached 26.5c - last night both the BBC and Met websites showed the max to be 21c. GFS output yesterday evening was showing a high of 25c. I appreciate the work that the Met Office does but the website is poor and the temperature forecasts are sometimes way out!

[ANYWEATHER]

The model output from the met-office are struggling with detail along with the  rest of us. that's why forecasts differ from day to day...

[Snowy L]

It's been happening for a while now, they underestimate both cold and warm events. They're scared to get off the fence.

[Summer Sun]

Speaking of the met office the website has had another update 

 

Upon clicking on your town or cities name you are presented with a new look screen: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07

[Lauren]

It seems their forecasts in general have been very off for me recently. Not sure why. They are normally quite good.

[Mapantz]

They need to leave the forecast part of the website alone and concentrate on a new warning system. The graphics during the winter storms were appalling! They were extremely confusing with the amount of overlapping, on many occasions it was impossible to determine which warnings covered what area.

[Jax]

too much time spent on the " new look" website? which I still find slow to load and navigate round, tend to use the mobile version even on a PC.

[richie3846]

I've noticed the temperature forecasting anomaly for at least three months now. It tends to be 2-3c higher than forecast, mainly on fine days. I was starting to wonder if the met are trying to 'play it safe' - 2c higher is a pleasing bonus, whilst forecasting on the higher end, and it turning out 2c colder could lead to bad press and complaints.

[cheese]

Max temp today was 21C - 2C higher than the forecast high of 19C. I guess they can't get it spot on all the time, or even most of the time.

They need to leave the forecast part of the website alone and concentrate on a new warning system. The graphics during the winter storms were appalling! They were extremely confusing with the amount of overlapping, on many occasions it was impossible to determine which warnings covered what area.

Agreed. I preferred the old system of highlighting counties instead of drawing random lines on maps, but it would be more helpful if they released warnings on even smaller levels - like constituencies or council wards. In the US, they do warnings on a county level, which is way more helpful.

[cheeky_monkey]

Max temp today was 21C - 2C higher than the forecast high of 19C. I guess they can't get it spot on all the time, or even most of the time.

Agreed. I preferred the old system of highlighting counties instead of drawing random lines on maps, but it would be more helpful if they released warnings on even smaller levels - like constituencies or council wards. In the US, they do warnings on a county level, which is way more helpful.

don't forget US counties can be huge in comparison to UK ones

[Chris K]

Aimed at the original thread title, I assume you are taking local geography and so on into account? And please say you haven't compared it to a temp reading from the car?

 

The problem with temperatures is that it is such a specific detail to forecast and is affected by so many 'local' factors, as well as the overall weather features. With all this combined I would have thought they can only go by a modelled & predicted average for an area.

 

Their forecasts for me have been pretty close to be honest. Although if the sun is out this time of year, I would also normally add 1-2 degrees and then it is usually close enough. Bit odd that you are deviating more than that, but there are so many tiny complexities, just like everything else to do with the weather & meteorology.

[johnholmes]

Max temp today was 21C - 2C higher than the forecast high of 19C. I guess they can't get it spot on all the time, or even most of the time.

Agreed. I preferred the old system of highlighting counties instead of drawing random lines on maps, but it would be more helpful if they released warnings on even smaller levels - like constituencies or council wards. In the US, they do warnings on a county level, which is way more helpful.

 

 

How on earth can they do that, how many council wards are there, what area do they cover? Come on be reasonable. 2C+/- is considered 'accurate' for a town or area. Have a look at the general model grid length as to why they cannot do it in more detail, even if they make out they can asking you to put your post code in. I put mine in and ask for yesterday values and up crops either Church Fenton or one of the Lincs stations, none of which are within 20 miles of me! Why they do not use Doncaster airport for Doncaster I have never worked out or received any satisfactory answer. They do TAFS for them, they receive their half hourly observations. Nowt like it were in my day lad!

Edited June 11, 2014 by johnholmes

[Snowy L]

The add 2c and take off 2c rule during warm and cold events respectively is usually correct. 22c today after a forecast of 20c.

[The PIT]

Apart from the odd expected whoopsee both nation and on the met site pretty good round here. The whoopsees are getting the night lows five degrees out. I ain't in the country.

[cheese]

How on earth can they do that, how many council wards are there, what area do they cover? Come on be reasonable. 2C+/- is considered 'accurate' for a town or area. Have a look at the general model grid length as to why they cannot do it in more detail, even if they make out they can asking you to put your post code in. I put mine in and ask for yesterday values and up crops either Church Fenton or one of the Lincs stations, none of which are within 20 miles of me! Why they do not use Doncaster airport for Doncaster I have never worked out or received any satisfactory answer. They do TAFS for them, they receive their half hourly observations. Nowt like it were in my day lad!

Maybe council wards are too local. Perhaps local authorities would be better.