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Major Hurricane Cristina


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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    The third tropical cyclone has developed in the Eastern Pacific to the south of Mexico. The cyclone is forecast to move generally westward with a gradual west-northwestward turn in a few days. The NHC anticipates 03E to become a category 1 tropical cyclone in about 48 hours, with a leveling off in intensity afterwards. In about 90 hours, the forecast track brings the cyclone over sub-26*C sea surface temperatures (SSTS). This, along with strong shear and dry air, will initiate steady weakening around that time.

    Posted Image

    Forecast track of 03E.

    Source:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/203148.shtml?5-daynl#contents

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Although convection isn't all that deep with the system this morning, it's inner structure has become better defined, and winds have increased to 35kts, making 03E, Tropical Storm Cristina.

    As I mentioned, convection isn't very deep over Cristina this morning, and this is most likely due to dry air entrainment from Mexico. As Cristina moves away from the coast, this should no longer be an issue, and with low shear and warm waters over the next few days, Cristina should at least become a minimal hurricane before the usual combination of higher shear, stable air and cooler sea temps kick in at higher lattitude in a few days time.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Cristina is an interesting little system. Convection has deepened on and off through the day in a flaring pattern but has, overall, remained pretty shallow. Despite this, the inner core has continued to become better organised, and despite the shallow depth of the convection, an eyelike feature appears to be forming. Winds are up to 45kts. Dry air is still preventing persistantly deep convection from occuring over the LLCC, but the apparent attempts at forming an eye indicates that once Cristina finds a bit more moisture (which it may well do as it heads further to the west away from the Mexican coast), it could strengthen quite decently.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Cristina has become a 65kt, category 1 hurricane. A solid central dense overcast has formed, surrounding a developing eye. Now this eye is closing off against the reletively dry air, the low shear and warm sea temperatures and small size of the hurricane could fuel rapid intensification over the next day or so. Could we see the season's second Major?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    80mph and looks perfect.

     

    Posted Image

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    A Solid Central Dense Overcast has formed, as has a pinhole eye. Cristina has rapidly intensified, and now has sustained winds of 145 mph, with a pressure of 940mb. Crazy stuff!

     

    NHC forecast a peak of 150mph, just shy of a Cat. 5. Vertical shear remains low.

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    Edit: Sustained winds now at 150mph, with gusts up to 185mph.

    Edited by Sainsbo
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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    A Solid Central Dense Overcast has formed, as has a pinhole eye. Cristina has rapidly intensified, and now has sustained winds of 145 mph, with a pressure of 940mb. Crazy stuff!

     

    NHC forecast a peak of 150mph, just shy of a Cat. 5. Vertical shear remains low.

     

    This has definitely been an extroordinary burst of rapid intensification, especially so since the NHC did not anticipate that given seemingly unfavourable conditions (dry air and a possible increase in wind shear).

     

    And with the development of another category four tropical cyclone, some Eastern Pacific hurricane records have already been broken. From the NHC:

     

     

     

    Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in theeastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing theformer record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.
     

     

     

    With Hurricanes Amanda and Cristina reaching category 4 status, thisis the first time there have been two category 4 hurricanes in Junein the eastern North Pacific basin since the beginning of thesatellite era in 1966. Prior to Cristina, the earliest secondcategory 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reachedthat threshold on July 1.

     

     

    Source:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/CRISTINA.shtml?

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Rapid intensification has indeed taken place which was always a possibility given the low shear and toasty waters. Winds are up to 130kts, a strong cat 4. Cristina is the earliest 2nd major Eastern Pacific hurricane on record. What a start to the season! Cristina could strengthen a little more aswell, how high will she go?

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    Could the hurricanes being stronger earlier be telling us that its a sign of things to come?? More and more hurricanes becoming stronger and stronger?? Definitely something to look into I think.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Cristina is weakening fast. Winds are down to 90kts, a cat 2 on the SS scale. Westerly shear and dry air have punched through the eyewall of Cristina, and the eye is no longer visible on satellite imagery. Further weakening will occur, and Cristina could become a remnant low in 3-4 days, perhaps sooner.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Cristina has weakened at a slower pace over the last 24hrs. Intensity is down to 80kts, high end cat 1 on the SS scale. A cloud filled eye has re-formed overnight, but this is not expected to persist for long, as waters continue to cool along track, and Cristina moves into an even drier airmass.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Shear and dry air have taken their toll on Cristina. Winds have fallen to 35kts. There is not much convection left associated with the circulation, but the LLC remains well defined. As sea temperatures continue to decline as Cristina heads northwestward, the storm should continue to wind down. If convection doesn't make a comeback soon, Cristina could be declared a remnant low later today.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

    Hey All,

    Hope this a good n ok place to post this but seeing as Christina was a female storm in the making this was quite apt.. ;)

    http://happyplace.someecards.com/shiras-tips-for-life/6-tips-for-female-hurricanes-who-want-to-be-taken-more-seriously/

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