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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The second tropical cyclone of the North Indian Ocean cyclone season of 2014 has formed, about 300 nautical miles southwest of Mumbai, India. 02A has winds of 35kts. The cyclone has increasing cconvection over the LLCC, with a largest mass of convection in the southwestern quadrant. Strengthening appears likely as 02A heads west-northwestwards towards Oman. Ridging is building quite nicely to the north of 02A, meaning the track towards Oman looks the most likely scenario. As 02A approaches Oman, dry air will likely begin weakening the cyclone, but not before it becomes at least a cat 1 hurricane strength cyclone if the JTWC forecast verifies.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Yes, it's certainly strengthening fairly decently at the moment. Winds are up to 50kts according to JTWC. The convective mass to the southwest is gradually being wrapped towards the LLCC, making the cyclone more symmetrical. 02A has another day or so to strengthen before reaching the drier airmass off the Oman coast, and I think JTWC's estimated peak of 75kts is a good one.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nanauk reached an intensity of 55kts, but has failed to strengthen any further due to shear. Nanauk has maintained an intensity of 55kts for about 24hrs now, but should begin to weaken quickly soon. It is no longer forecast to reach the coast of Oman, and is instead expected to veer to the north as the cyclone collapses in dry air and continued high shear.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nanauk has sheared apart. The LLCC is racing north away from the remaining deep convection. Winds are down to 35kts. JTWC have issued their final warning, indicating full dissipation in the next 12hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Ah, I've used the term from the official warning centre for North Indian Ocean cyclones- the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Though I trust JTWC more and go by their intensity estimates as I find IMD are slow and underestimate strength, JTWC are unofficial, so the thread title reflects what the official IMD called the system.

If you go to this page and scroll down to the North Indian Ocean section you can see the scale IMD use:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

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