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[Blog] Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 11 Issued 18 June


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This is the 11th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

Previous Runs

Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0

Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5

Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5

Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0

Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0

Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0

with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

After the ominous charts on Monday 16th, a lot better charts yesterday, resulting in a better rating, will today continue the trend.

GFS Operational runs

06Hz run

High Pressure centred to the West UK west on the 22nd, this builds over the UK to start next week, then moves back South Westwards, but still with High Pressure over the UK to start the festival (25th). This slowly weakens by the Friday allowing lower pressure to the North west of the UK, looking dry for Glastonbury though. Low Pressure tries to edge in over the weekend, but High Pressure to the South West of the UK, should keep things dry for Glastonbury.

12Hz run

High Pressure centred to the West UK west on the 22nd, this builds over the UK to start next week, then moves back South Westwards, but still with High Pressure over the UK to start the festival (25th) and a bit stronger on this run compared to the 06Hz. This slowly weakens by the Friday allowing lower pressure to the North west of the UK, looking mostly dry for Glastonbury though. Low Pressure tries to edge in over the weekend from the north, but it could stay dry for Glastonbury.

Overall dry to start the festival, with an increased risk of some rain over the weekend, but nothing significant and Glastonbury may well stay dry if GFS is correct.

GFS Ensembles

06Hz run

Pressure remaining around 1020mb or slightly above for the duration of the festival. The ensembles although not totally dry are pretty dry from now until the end of the festival. Average temps around around 5c @850HPa for the start of the festival, rising back to around 8c by the end.

12Hz run

Pressure rising back to around 1030mb early next week, before dropping back to around 1025mb to start the festival and slightly below 1020mb to end the festival. The rainfall ensembles are pretty dry to start the festival but a few are going for some moderate rainfall over the weekend. Average temps around around 8c @850HPa for the duration of the festival.

ECM / UKMO

ECM 00Hz

High Pressure to the South West of the UK on the 22nd, total agreement with ensembles run (not shown). The operational run goes for Low Pressure to nudge in from the North West by Wednesday the 25th, with low pressure over UK by the Friday 27th with cool NW and winds and the probability of some moderate showery rainfall for Glastonbury. The ECM Ensembles keeps decent pressure until the 25th but reduces it by the 27trh,with Pressure down to around 1016mb.

ECM 12Hz

High Pressure to the South West of the UK on the 22nd, The operational run is unsettled by the start of the festival with weak Low Pressure over the UK, with again Low Pressure pushing west over the UK by Friday. Winds from the NW, with some moderate rain possibly for Glastonbury however the LP again centred further north so South Western areas not as wet as areas furth north.

UKMO

These runs only go to around the 24th June, but High Pressure ridging over the UK on both runs.

NOAA

Both charts have an upper ridge close to the west of the UK, but not as dominant as was the case a few days ago.

Summary

Positives

Decent GFS runs today, looking mostly dry for Glastonbury for the festival.

UKMO looking positive in keeping HP for the start of the festival.

06Hz Ensembles looking pretty dry

Neutral

The overall pattern isn't looking as solid as was the case yesterday.

12Hz Ensembles, dry to start, but with a few wetter runs for the weekend.

The ECM 00Hz Ensembles show pressure edging away from the UK.

The Upper Charts keep an upper ridge close to the UK

Negatives

ECM 00Hz run looking unsettled and rather damp at best for the festival.

ECM 12Hz run looking unsettled and rather damp at best for the festival.

Overall the charts not looking as good as yesterday, but still a lot better than Monday.

I would like to improve the rating but given the charts from ECM, I cannot do so, but the GFS means the rating remains at 5.0. 0=Dustbowl, 10 = Heatwave Scale

Will tomorrow see GFS look more like ECM or ECM look more like GFS. Time will tell.

Links

Discussion thread and a bit more info http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3

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