Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

[Blog] Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 12 Issued 19 June


Guest
 Share

Recommended Posts

This is the 12th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

Previous Runs

Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0

Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5

Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5

Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0

Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0

Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0

Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0

with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

Generally looking mostly settled with High Pressure to the South West, and a ridge of High pressure over the rest of the UK on this Sunday.

The remainder of the forecast will cover only the festival period itself.

GFS Operational runs

06Hz run

For Wednesday the 25th June, High Pressure staying around the UK with winds from the North East so not hot by any means, but dry for the South West, similar with Friday with High pressure on the scene, mostly settled and dry, by Sunday the high pressure moves away to the north allowing low pressure to push in from the south, with some moderate to heavy rainfall for late Sunday.

12Hz run

For the 12Hz run High Pressure staying for South and Western parts of the UK for the start of the festival, so mostly dry, the pressure slowly tending to weaken as moves to Friday but mostly dry at this stage however by the weekend low pressure edging in from the west, with some moderate rainfall at times, et at times, but no absolute washout.

So both GFS runs have a dry start to the festival through till Friday, both with some rainfall expected over the weekend, not as good as some previous runs, but no washout in either case.

GFS Ensembles

06Hz run

Pressure around 1020 until the Friday, dropping back to just above 1015mb by the Sunday. Rainfall ensembles are mostly dry for Wednesday to Friday, but an increasing number of damp / wet runs over the festival weekend. Temps starting at around 5c @850HPA rising to around 7c, by the Sunday.

12Hz run

Pressure around 1020 until the Friday, dropping back to just below 1020mb by the Sunday. Rainfall ensembles are mostly dry for Wednesday to Friday, but an increasing number of damp runs over the festival weekend. Temps starting at around 7c @850HPA and staying there.

The 12Hz runs are a bit better than the 06Hz ensembles.

ECM / UKMO

ECM 00Hz

By Wednesday, the High Pressure has leaked away with no dominant pressure over the UK, and Low Pressure to the north West of the UK, this edges across the UK on Thursday and Friday brining some rain, over the weekend a South West flow with High pressure ridging in souther areas, so possibly quite warm with maybe a little dampness, but no heavy rain likely.

The ensembles are slightly better than the op run to start with High Pressure to the south west, however for both the 27th and 29th runs, the the ensembles runs are worse than the op run with lower pressure for the UK.

ECM 12Hz

O/S

UKMO

High Pressure over the UK to start the festival according to the UKMO.

NOAA

Neutral pressure over western UK, with an upper trough to the east of the UK.

Summary

Positives

UKMO run shows a settled start to the festival

GFS / GEFS Ensembles suggest a dry settled start to the festival

Neutral

NOAA has neutral upper pressure for western areas.

Negatives

GFS / GFS Ensembles has things turning a little bit more unsettled over the weekend with some rain

ECM takes thing rather unsettled to start the festival.

ECM Ensembles keep a rather unsettled theme for the festival weekend as well.

Overall a mixed set of charts today and a slight worsening of the score to 5.5. But no real washout charts in the offing.

This blog will be updated late this evening to cover the 12Hz ECM run and ensembles.

Links

Discussion thread and a bit more info http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3

Attached thumbnail(s)
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image
  • Posted Image

Visit the NW Blog to view in full and post your comments / questions

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 0
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Popular Days

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...