July 2014 CET Forecasts

[Summer Sun]

Upto 16.4c to the 11th

 

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

[Milhouse]

Once again, ending above average is more likely than below average.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 16.6c to the 12th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[TonyH]

Don't know where he gets cooler than average from?

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 16.7c to the 13th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[Rob Heselwood]

Average daytime temperatures here are just 0.4C above the 30 year average, but if I include the average overnight temperatures , the average then is 17.3C.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I called 18.2C. If we retained warm air over the UK til months end, could that figure be obtained still?

[TonyH]

Just possible but unlikely it would have to be very warm to the month end.

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 14th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[Roger J Smith]

I called 18.2C. If we retained warm air over the UK til months end, could that figure be obtained still?

 

It's possible but the 06z GFS output would give a final value around 17.6, the only really warm days are late this week and near the end of the month with most of the other days not far from normal which would throw a lot of 17s into the data. If these warm plumes get stronger and one more appears between the two that have been frequently advertised, then yes 18 is reachable, but would say you're at the upper limit of what can be reached from here especially given likely 0.2 downward adjustment.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

It's possible but the 06z GFS output would give a final value around 17.6, the only really warm days are late this week and near the end of the month with most of the other days not far from normal which would throw a lot of 17s into the data. If these warm plumes get stronger and one more appears between the two that have been frequently advertised, then yes 18 is reachable, but would say you're at the upper limit of what can be reached from here especially given likely 0.2 downward adjustment.

 

Thanks Tony and Roger.  I guess in my heart I know I have called about 0.5C too high.  It's always better to call too high though as a summer synoptics fan, as I can then cheer on each warmer run

Edited July 15, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[TonyH]

Better chance but still a long reach for my 17.7c!

[Roger J Smith]

Personally, Tony I think you're as close as anyone right now. I went 17.9 and if I could have a restart I would say 17.5 looking at how warm it is supposed to get near the end of the month. Last year they came in with a giant downward adjustment but I think that was just because the Metoffice panicked when word spread about my forecast being closest. The last time that happened, global warming ended (Jan 2008).

[TonyH]

I am pleased if I get within 1c Roger

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 15th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 16th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[TonyH]

Boy watch this shoot up in the next few days!

If it is 17.6 I've been proved right.

Or lucky!

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 16.9c to the 17th

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited July 18, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

First half of July is… average?

The UK mean temperature for 1-16 of the month is 15C, just 0.1C above average. UK rainfall is perhaps surprisingly close to the average too, with 36.3mm of rain making up 46% of the whole-month average – we’d expect to see about 52% of the average by now.

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/07/18/first-half-of-july-is-average/

[The PIT]

Not surprising until the last few days there hasn't been any really warm days a few cool nights thrown in have kept it all down. We are at +0.8C a big jump due to last few days.

At the moment sunny Sheffield is  at 17C up to today. Very dry as well though with only 16.6mm of rain. 15mm of that coming in two days.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 17.1c to the 18th

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 17.3c to the 19th

 

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[Milhouse]

I wonder whether last years 18.3c for July is within reach.

[TonyH]

Just about possible, may equal it, doubt it will beat it though.

[Don]

Global warming on TWO anticipates a final july CET of 17.9 which would mean two hot july's on the bounce and the hottest june-july period since 2006.

 

That would mean I will be just 0.2C out so I hope he's near the mark although hopefully slightly too high!