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July 2014 CET Forecasts

Roger J Smith
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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Yes there is a strong chance we could see another 18+ CET July. If we continue to see a 0.1 degree rise each day we will be on 18.0 degrees by the 27th, and if we maintain warm conditions thereafter then yes we could beat July 2013, but it will be a tall order, and my own hunch is we will end up slightly cooler than last July with end figure probably 18 or 18.1 degrees, a NW airflow though as some are predicting could knock it down just below 18 degrees. Its good to see two very warm July's on the trot, July 2005 can't have been far off 18 degrees I would have thought though?

 

Pity we can't muster two very cold January's back to back... just to counter balance things. It does seem statistically that it easier to achieve back to back very warm July's than August's, other back to back very warm July's occurred in 1994, 1995 and 1989, 1990 also 1983 and 1984, 1975 and 1976.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Up-to 17.5c to the 21st

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

If it finished at that I'd be bang on the money :)  but the way its going i think we'll finish at around the 18c mark 8)

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Yes there is a strong chance we could see another 18+ CET July. If we continue to see a 0.1 degree rise each day we will be on 18.0 degrees by the 27th, and if we maintain warm conditions thereafter then yes we could beat July 2013, but it will be a tall order, and my own hunch is we will end up slightly cooler than last July with end figure probably 18 or 18.1 degrees, a NW airflow though as some are predicting could knock it down just below 18 degrees. Its good to see two very warm July's on the trot, July 2005 can't have been far off 18 degrees I would have thought though? Pity we can't muster two very cold January's back to back... just to counter balance things. It does seem statistically that it easier to achieve back to back very warm July's than August's, other back to back very warm July's occurred in 1994, 1995 and 1989, 1990 also 1983 and 1984, 1975 and 1976.

End of the month should knock it below 18 before corrections.July 05 was 16.9 however I think mid June to mid July was close to 18.
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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted (edited)

July 2005 had a cool cloudy spell in the last third of the month.  I remember that in Tyneside the first two-thirds of the month (especially the second week) were often very warm and sunny but that the period 21st-31st, while not remarkably wet, had a remarkable lack of sunshine, and cool days partly offset by warm nights, and it was not localised but was rather caused by frequent northerly winds.  That would explain the CET of just 16.9.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

There was me thinking my 17.7c was going to be too high, but its now likely it will be too low!

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

With the GFS 12z keeping temperatures average or above for the remainder of the month i wonder whether this current figure can be maintained. I sure has been an astonishing run of above average months since December. I did fear it would all come to an end at the end of Spring but the pattern continues. July really can make or break a summer so for it to finish roughly 1c above average is quite an achievement.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)

Global warming from TWO has revised his guess down again to 17.66 rounded off to 17.7.

 

Well I hope he's right to do this!  I wonder why?!

Edited by Don
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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

He can't make his mind up

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

To finish nearly 2C above the July average for the 2nd year in a row is even more remarkable!

 

Depends on what average you look at. The 81-10 average is 16.7c.

 

Last year 1.6 above average. This year not quite so much.

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Now the slight fall off commences but to where?

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Hopefully :)

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

I don't think it will fall too much this week, although there will likely be the usual downward corrections at the end of the month. Tomorrow is looking like another warm day across the CET zone, albeit cooler than most of the last week. There doesn't look to be anything cool enough to take it down significantly over the next 4 days.

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

No change again we remain on 18.1c to the 28th

 

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

If it remains above 18c it will be only the second time in cet records we have had back to back 18+ July that I could see..the other time it happened was July 94 followed by July 95

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted (edited)

Might just scrape in below 18c then, plus the usual downward adjustment on top of that..

Edited by TonyH
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