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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Invest 97E has become Tropical Storm Elida, with winds of 45kts. Elida is located just off the coast of Mexico, east of Tropical Storm Douglas. Elida is a sheared storm, and the LLCC is partially exposed from the convective mass. Shear is not expected to ease over the next day or two, as Elida meanders near the coast. As Douglas moves away, ridging should build north of Elida, allowing the storm to move westwards away from the coast. Shear is forecast to ease at when this occurs, but Elida probably won't strengthen as it heads into a drier, more stable airmass at the same time.

    A tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of the south Mexico coastline. Although Elida should remain offshore, rains and storm force winds will affect coastal areas over the next day or so until Elida moves away westwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    There is a chance I guess Cookie, if Elida moves west sooner than expected, but currently it's not considered likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Elida has barely moved at all since I last posted, and is in fact drifting very slowly southeastwards currently. Shear has not ebated over Elida, and this is really taking it's toll on the storm. Winds are down to 35kts according to the 9.30pm update, but I expect the next advisory will indicate even lower winds. The LLCC is becoming less defined, and there is very little organised convection associated with Elida. Shear is not expected to ease, and Elida is likely to dissipate soon.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Elida has degenerated into a remnant low. There is no convection left associated with the low. Shear is set to remain high, which should fully dissipate the low in a day or two.

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