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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has finally gotten into business. Tropical depression One has developed out of a low pressure area (formerly 91L), which has been meandering of the northeastern coast of Florida during the past few days.

     

    Current organization

     

    Current satellite imagery (as of 07:30 UTC) shows that Tropical depression One is under impact of significant northerly shear, which is blowing the convection southward away from the LLCC (low level circulation centre). In fact, the LLCC is still partially exposed (according to CIMSS).

     

    Posted Image

    Visible satellite loop of Tropical depression 01 (Courtesy: NHC)

     

    Forecast

     

    Despite the seemingly disorganized appearance, the NHC forecasts gradual strengthening of the cyclone, reaching a peak intensity of 60 kt near the Eastern Seaboard. This is caused by a trough which forces the cyclone to recurve toward the northeast after a slow southwestward drift in a few days. The forecast track from the NHC can be seen below:

     

    Posted Image

    Forecast track of Tropical depression 1.

     

    Sources:

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/01L_floater.html

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=01L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

    why abandon the original discussion of this low ??

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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    why abandon the original discussion of this low ??

     

    It is to avoid the Atlantic hurricane/invest thread from getting too crowded and confusing. In other words, the policy is to create a separate thread on each new tropical cyclone developing. The general threads for each individual basin (for example, the East-Pacific and the West-Pacific/North Indian invest threads) only discuss tropical disturbances up to and including invests. So, when a system gets classified as a tropical cyclone by an agency (for example: NOAA or JTWC), a new thread is started.

     

    The same occured with tropical storms Douglas and Elida, which were discussed in the East Pacific thread when they were still invests, but got a separate thread when they were designated as tropical cyclones by the NHC.

     

    I hope this answers your question satisfactory  :).

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    That's right Vorticity :)

    Also it works vice versa. The main threads are there to discuss the many disturbances across the basins, many of which fail to become tropical cyclones, instead of starting a thread for each one. This stops the forum being littered with threads of "non-events" so to speak :)

    The newest advisory indicates 01L reaching minimal hurricane strength. A little fairly useless piece of trivia: if future Arthur does reach hurricane strength, it'll be the first storm named Arthur to do so in the Atlantic basin (all previous Arthur's have only reached tropical storm strength).

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Good addition Somerset Squall, I hadn't yet thought about the other side of the reasoning  :wink:.

     

    On a more serious note: Tropical Depression One has been upgraded to Tropical storm Arthur, the first of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Although convection still appears to be sheared, the convection has increased in areal coverage and depth (judging from satellite imagery). This could have prompted the aforementioned upgrade.

     

    Arthur also appears to be on the influence of some dry air. Water vapor imagery shows that a pocket of relatively dry air is located to the north and northwest of Arthur. This was possibly also a contributor to the relative lack of convection of the cyclone in the northern semicircle.

     

    Posted Image

    Water vapor satellite imagery of Arthur (Courtesy: NOAA)

     

    However, now that convection appears to be on the increase, it might indicate that the northern half of Arthur will soon also be covered (if the northwesterly shear also abates, as indicated by the NHC). This could initiate a period of more steady strengthening of the system.

     

    Sources:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/011502.shtml

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/01L_floater.html

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Looks to be strengthening quickly on satellite.

     

    Recon reporting 1003mb, 42mph. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Nhc went with 50mph.

    Unconfirmed reports go for 998mb and 60mph, looks like its strengthening.

    Nhc goes for 90mph in 72 hours.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Arthur certainly seems to be insulating itself from the dry air currently, perhaps shear is reducing? As has been said, winds are up to 45kts, and NHC expect a peak of 80kts, just shy of cat 2 on the SS scale. Looks like it might pack some punch to the eastern seaboard later this week.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Arthur doesn't look very impressive on satellite, but that could easily change throughout the day.

     

    Latest visible satellite images (as of 18:00 UTC) show a clear banding type eye developing:

     

    Posted Image

    Visible satellite image of Arthur (courtesy: NOAA)

     

    Banding featuers have also become nicely defined to the south and west of the system. 

     

    However, visible satellite imagery can be misleading. Judging from Dvorak satellite imagery, one would classify this system as a rather disorganized one, with only some deep convection present in the eastern semicircle (though it is present in a banding pattern).

     

    Posted Image

    Dvorak satellite image of Arthur (courtesy: NOAA)

     

    It will be interesting to see what NHC will do with the mixed satellite appearance. What do you think about this?

     
    Source:
    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    some pics from ryan maue and joe b from twitter

     

    post-18233-0-81850700-1404328111_thumb.ppost-18233-0-79489400-1404328113_thumb.ppost-18233-0-93532900-1404328109_thumb.ppost-18233-0-37102200-1404328108_thumb.ppost-18233-0-48324600-1404328105_thumb.j

     

    joe b talking possibility of a cat 2-3 hitting the outer banks at 48 hours

     

    heres a few radar images which show the eye feature

     

    post-18233-0-13812800-1404328676_thumb.ppost-18233-0-25697800-1404328678_thumb.p

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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    Latest visible satellite images (as of 18:00 UTC) show a clear banding type eye developing:

     

    Posted Image

    Visible satellite image of Arthur (courtesy: NOAA)

     

    Banding featuers have also become nicely defined to the south and west of the system. 

     

    However, visible satellite imagery can be misleading. Judging from Dvorak satellite imagery, one would classify this system as a rather disorganized one, with only some deep convection present in the eastern semicircle (though it is present in a banding pattern).

     

    Posted Image

    Dvorak satellite image of Arthur (courtesy: NOAA)

     

    It will be interesting to see what NHC will do with the mixed satellite appearance. What do you think about this?

     
    Source:

     

     

     

    It definitely looks more organised than it did when I posted the message 9 hours ago. :p

     

    But yeah, I agree with everything you've said. With satellite images being so decieving, a recon would be quite handy. Personally I would take the increasingly prominent banding features as a sign as intensification, and ignore the rather disorganised nature of the system, I think that's something that will change slowly with time.

     

    Edit: The eye is definitely becoming moe defined, and the latest ECMWF has it down to 966mb when next to NC.

    Edited by Sainsbo
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    Latest NHC Advisory puts windspeeds at 70mph. Satellite images show the system becoming increasingly organised, with a CDO forming. Not too long before we have the first Hurricane of the season!

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Hurricane Central â€@twc_hurricane 29m

    Tropical Storm Arthur: 5 PM ET, 70 mph winds, 992 mb, moving at 7 mph. http://wxch.nl/r1tYL6

     

    updated track and hurricane warnings now issued for parts of the Carolinas

     

    post-18233-0-59905500-1404335765_thumb.ppost-18233-0-12983700-1404335766_thumb.j

     

    looking good on animation

     

    post-18233-0-80276900-1404335795_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    987mb reported. Open eyewall.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    you can see how its really wrapped up in the last 18 hours on the 10m wind charts

     

    post-18233-0-56607200-1404338438_thumb.gpost-18233-0-65973300-1404338439_thumb.gpost-18233-0-96574400-1404338440_thumb.gpost-18233-0-77855600-1404338449_thumb.g

     

    most of the precipitation looks to be on the eastern flank so unless this changes and with the current forecast path it might not be too much of a soaker

     

    post-18233-0-87735600-1404338460_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Recon recording 984mb, 79KT I think.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Arthur is now the season's first hurricane, with winds of 65kts. Arthur has about another 24-36hrs to strengthen before shear rises causing weakening. If there are any more dry air intrusions, strengthening will be capped. NHC forecast a peak of 75kts.

     

    We have already had half the number of hurricanes of the whole 2013 season :laugh:

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