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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands
Posted (edited)

A new tropical depression has developed in the Western Pacific basin, the ninth of the 2014 Western Pacific Typhoon season. As Somerset Squall noted in the Western Pacific invest thread, conditions look favourable for development. The JTWC forecasts the system to reach 75 kt in 5 days, with a general westward track toward the Philippine islands. Confidence in the JTWC forecast is currently rather low.

 

Posted Image

JTWC forecast track of 09W.

 

A review on the fact that many models1 had multiple lows assessed within the area of 09W, from the Western Pacific invest thread:

 

 

 

 Of note is that all models given above have multiple lows assessed at the location of 92W1. I don't know whether this is due to multiple low pressure areas present or due to poor initialization

 

The JTWC answers this question, by stating that:

 

 

 

HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP THIS DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS. SINCE THIS IS A COMPACT SYSTEM, THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS MIGHT NOT RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM CORRECTLY.

 

In summary: It seems to be the poor initialization, combined with, and probably caused by the small size of the cyclone, that are causing this problem.

 

EDIT: Deleted sentence that system would unlikely hit the Philippines as it is becoming more plausible that the Philippines will be hit by this system

 

Sources:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80549-west-pacificnorth-indian-ocean-investseason-thread-2014/

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

1: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

JTWC's second advisory has put the current winds up to 30kts. The advisory now has 09W at 95kts by day 5, which isn't surprising given the favourable environment ahead. Due to 09W's small size, it could rapidly intensify.

 

post-1820-0-38482100-1405022325_thumb.jp

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Winds are now up to 35kts according to JTWC. Latest forecast paints a very worrying picture for Luzon. A 110kt system making landfall if it verifies:

 

Posted Image

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands
Posted (edited)

Indeed, this is definitely one to watch. A category 3 typhoon making landfall, not something to be taken lightly (if it indeed verifies).
 
MODIS satellite imagery (as of 04:30 UTC) showed a pretty well organized system with the LLCC (low level circulation centre) located on the southern edge of the deep convection. Some banding features were present on the western side of the system.

 
Posted Image
MODIS satellite imagery of 09W (Courtesy: US Naval Research Laboratory)
 

Since then, the system has lost some organization (as of 09:30 UTC), with the banding features on the western edge of 09W dissipating, giving a more ragged appearance.1

 

The GFS now shows landfall on the Philippine islands, in accordance with the JTWC track. This will take the cyclone over SSTS (sea surface temperatures) in excess of 30*C, with a peak of 31*C just to the east of Luzon. Such SSTS are very favourable for  possibly rapid development.

 

Posted Image

GFS forecast of 09W (11 July, 00Z run).

 

Of note is that the GFS has backed some off from its previous forecasts, now only showing a cyclone with a minimum pressure of 980 hPa at landfall. This doesn't necessarily mean that 09W could not strengthen more than this, though.

 

Sources:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/

1:http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=09W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14071100/31.html

Edited by Vorticity0123
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Unexpected shear has weakened 09W today, with winds now at 30kts. Convection is not at all well organised this evening- the depression looks a mess. JTWC have backed off a little on the intensity forecast, but still expect 09W to be near 100kts on approach to Luzon. Shear is expected to ease, but until it does so, 09W will not intensify.

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

JMA have upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Rammasun, with winds of 35kts. Convection has become a little more concentrated near the LLCC. Shear has eased a little but the outflow over Rammasun is weak. This is expected to improve however, which should allow Rammasun to strengthen at a faster pace on approach to Luzon.

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Rammasun is racing westwards at a speed of 20kts, almost double the average forward speed for a tropical cyclone. I think this is partially to blame for the fact that Rammasun has still not intensified, as the low level and mid level centres are not aligned. Shear is not destructively high, but upper level outflow remains poor. JTWC now only a peak of 65kts prior to landfall in Luzon.

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted (edited)

Rammasun has put on an impressive burst of intensification since I last posted. Winds have increased from 40kts to 80kts in 24 hours. Outflow has vastly improved over Rammasun, allowing the cyclone to intensify. Rammasun has a firmly established CDO, with a small and increasingly well defined eye emerging. Rammasun is likely to intensify further before landfall, before weakening over land, and then re-intensifying over the South China Sea as the upper level environment remains favourable. After moving through the Philippines, Rammasun is expected to veer northwestwards towards Southern China, more specifically Hainan Island. JTWC forecast Rammasun to be near cat 3 status on the SS scale by second landfall (90kts), and for Rammasun to be near that intensity before this first landfall, in the Philippines.

 

post-1820-0-81824300-1405367472_thumb.jp

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted (edited)

Rammasun has continued so strengthen on approach to Sorsogon, Philippines. Winds are up to 100kts this morning, cat 3 on the SS scale. The eye has cleared out overnight, and can be seen very close to Sorsogon, with landfall likely in the next few hours. Some weakening is expected as Rammasun crosses the Philippines, but re-intensification is expected in the South China Sea as the typhoon approaches Hainan Island.

 

post-1820-0-86219200-1405416014_thumb.jp

 

Posted Image

Edited by Somerset Squall
  • Like 1
Posted

Certainly looks supportive of Cat. 4 on satellite. It's held itself together extremely well so far as it's started to cross the Philippines, and now is predicted to become a Cat. 4 when emerging into the China Sea.

 

If anything, those cloud tops are still cooling!

 

Posted Image

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Winds have been raised to 110kts in the latest JTWC advisory. Land certainly hasn't had any detrimental effect on Rammasun yet, as it threads it's way through the Philippine islands. It's certainly a very rough ride there at the moment, hopefully the damage/death toll won't be high.

As Sainsbo has said, re-intensification is expected over the South China Sea after Rammasun loses some strength, and JTWC are forecasting a 120kt, cat 4 typhoon slamming into Hainan Island. Thereafter, Rammasun is expected to make a third landfall after crossing the Gulf Of Tonkin, this time near Hanoi, Northern Vietnam, still as a significant typhoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

In best track, JTWC have retroactively raised Rammasun's intensity to 115kts (cat 4) at landfall on the Philippines. As for Rammasun now, the typhoon is emerging into the South China Sea with winds of 90kts. Although the eye has disappeared from satellite imagery, the typhoon retains a well organised inner core with centralised, deep convection flanked by strong banding. This puts Rammasun in a good position for re-intensification as it crosses the South China Sea.

Latest reports suggest at least 10 people have died so far:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-16/an-thousands-evacauted-as-typhoon-rammasun-closes-in-on-manila/5600234

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Rammasun's winds are currently at 85kts. The eye appears to be re-emerging from the central dense overcast, so it looks like the typhoon might start to re-intensify.

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Rammasun has started to re-intensify. Winds are up to 95kts, high end cat 2 on the SS s ale. The eye is clearng out nicely, and JTWC forecast Rammasun to become the strongest it's been so far whilst it slams into Hainan Island, with winds expected to be at 120kts.

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted (edited)

Rammasun has rapidly intensified over the last few hours, and now is stronger than it's ever been. Winds are up to 120kts, cat 4 on the SS scale. Rammasun is likely to strengthen further. JTWC forecast a peak of 130kts prior to landfall on Hainan Island. The situation is really looking very dangerous indeed, Rammasun is very likely to kill more people sadly.

 

post-1820-0-48479700-1405627027_thumb.jp

 

 

 

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Rammasun nearly became a cat 5 before landfall on Hainan Island. Winds maxed out at 135kts, a high end cat 4 super typhoon. This has got to be one of the strongest landfalls on Hainan in history.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted (edited)

Thanks for that link Knocker, shows Rammasun's interaction with Hainan well.

 

Rammasun has emerged over the Gulf Of Tonkin as a 125kt cat 4 typhoon. The typhoon, as shown in the link Knocker posted, it moving northwestwards towards the coast of South China, just north of the Vietnam border. Landfall is imminent, and should occur over the next few hours. This will be the third and final landfall of this deadly system.

 

Image of Rammasun earlier nearing Hainan:

 

post-1820-0-75252000-1405716025_thumb.jp

 

 

Edited by Somerset Squall
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