Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Speedway Slider]

@Gordon Webb and @Speedway Slider - what is it about storms that makes you both anxious? Is it the fear of being struck or something less defined? Do you both have lightning rods on the roof?For me, I can't wait. Even the Netweather forecast has several hours of storms for my area on Saturday, but that's probably jinxed it now. I'll be keeping an eye on Barometer Dog.

 

ReindeerMarmalade, it's defo the lightning I fear, I have pretty vivid recurring dreams of being chased by lightning storms! All sorts of lightning, tornados, and not always when it's forecast, just as likely to dream this in December as July!!

I don't have a lightning conductor, but I don't have a connected aerial either, have wall mounted dish, as low as possible!! I will disconnect everything electrical I can when lightning is imminent, and my partner turns all the mirrors around!!!!!! I don't liveon the top iif a hill, well not elevated at all really and Ihave at the moment a towering crane about 70 yards away! Is the fear of LIGHTNING to this level common? I don't know, but I see lots of people who don't seem to give a damn and will walk around in the open in a thunderstorm and not even acknowledge it's there!

 

So, yes, it's the Lightning that scares me... and fear of being struck/close to a strike...

[ReindeerMarmalade]

for me it is the lightning fear of being struck seeing it and also of the very loudest rumbles of thunder and even though I know that is harmless and also the chances of been struck by lightning inside a house are also low I cannot help it perhaps what is worse than that is the build up the wait when a storm happens I can get into a particular state of mind a routine I have to try and cope with it and generally as a storm progress I get use to my routine and the storm going on around me , I also live at home so I have family who do their best to reassure me but I still don't find it easy

If the build up is worse than the actual storm, maybe this is a part of the forum you should try to avoid (for your own sanity)? If it's the strike that's a concern and you haven't already got one I'd highly recommend a lightning rod on the roof - I love storms but it's something I'll invest in once we move (no point doing it in this house).I'm sure you've already tried lots of things but mayb finding a diversionary tactic would help - something that you love and can get immersed in that you do once the storm starts?

[liambailey09]

The 6z nmm is rolling out now and shows an mcs move up the spine of the country so things have shifted west slightly 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday's warning

 

Issued at: 1100 on Thu 17 Jul 2014

Valid from: 0005 on Sun 20 Jul 2014

Valid to: 2355 on Sun 20 Jul 2014

 

Heavy, thundery showers are likely to develop in eastern and northeastern parts of England through the morning before moving northwestwards into eastern Scotland later. Not everywhere will see a storm, but where they occur torrential downpours are possible with lightning, hail and locally strong wind gusts. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption from any of these elements.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Hot and humid air over the eastern side of the country will gradually be replaced by fresher air from the west early next week. Before that thundery showers will form on the boundary between these air masses and these have the potential for torrential downpours, hail and gusty winds. With considerable uncertainty in the location of these storms, further updates to this alert are to be expected.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=uk&fcTime=1405810800

[toggerob]

Temperature here already on-par with the GFS outlook, come mid-afternoon and Cheshire expecting a peak of 26'c which can only help the channel imports expected moving north into early morning.

[Chris K]

All flaring up nicely in the Bay Of Biscay...hopefully it heads our way

 

[ChezWeather]

Cant decide wether to go out on the town tonight or dissapoint my mates by sitting at home radar watching and seeing if anything makes it up here!

Friday night and saturday really looking good now though!

Edited July 17, 2014 by ChezWeather

[Gordon Webb]

the reason I say the build up is worse is because my family who are great and help me out a lot when a storm is ongoing insist I try to live a normal life and routine up until then

 

I understand their point of view but I find it hard

 

One time when my PC had broken down it thundered , It wasn't forecast I wasn't expecting it or looking out for it and apart from been worried at the time I was able to cope

 

Perhaps coming here Is doing me more harm than good because at times due to worry I have felt quite self destructive and considered doing something very stupid and final ( wont take a genius to figure out what that was ) but thankfully common sense kicked in and I told myself it's only weather and it's finite not everlasting , I just wished I had my Dad's attitude he has a lot of illnesses but carries on regardless and lives a good life unlike me who worries worries worries and who at the moment feels like such a failure and a coward

 

I've got to go now before my sanity goes and regain my self control

 

goodbye for now and good luck for those that want them and those that don't

[Mapantz]

If you're contemplating heading down to the coast to see the action coming in, apart from being on the IoW, I would head to Barton on Sea, to the west of the IoW. Or, Bognor Regis to the east. That wouldn't be a bad bet as you've got A31 and A27 nearby to get back on the road.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Mapantz

[Love Snow]

What's the news for Yorkshire will it be the normal let down ?

[Karl83]

It's a paid Android app I use on my tablet. I searched for weeks to find the most accurate weather app, and Weatherpro seems to be it.

Same here - Got a level 2 too! Great app.

[Paul Sherman]

Not often you see a shift west in the model output, would take that as a good sign, we dont want Belgium, Holland and France getting the clippers again.

 

Will be heading somewhere just south of the Midlands Friday Night for hopefully some elevated lightning coming up through the spine of the country.

 

Hand is forced for Saturday as Arron is hosting the annual Stormchasers BBQ This year in Aberwystwyth so will be heading North to Brum and then west into wales via Welshpool during the morning and early afternoon, could be a lively old drive towards the West Midlands, downside to heading west could be the development of the plume breaking down Saturday night into Sunday on home turf which is why I am heading out Friday evening.

 

Good luck all and if some home grown surface based storms can fire the temp/t/d, available Cape and 30-40knts of Deep Layer Shear would be enough for Very Severe Storms for the Uk.

 

Edit: Also had to laugh at an earlier comment on Lincs missing out - Seriously ? Both days look good for that location as is always the case!

 

Paul S

[Chris K]

Same here - Got a level 2 too! Great app.

 

It's looking very promising for the W country Karl....not seen something this good on the charts for our area for a long time! Just got to wait and see now on how things develop real time...

[Heisenberg]

Hi Paul

 

how are we looking in my area currently? I keep seeing conflicting reports.....thanks

[Harry]

Can't remember such an exciting setup - it's really quite rare to have these conditions all coming together over the UK (ie plume breakdown AND severe potential), PLUS only gradually too so over a number of days.

I hope at the very least for some awesome pics and vids if I don't get lucky!

Seriously considering a dash to bluewater tonight to buy a video camera to mount on my tripod...if one exists!

Edited July 17, 2014 by Harry

[Mapantz]

My Lumia 1020 has just arrived, perfect for videoing any thunder & lightning.. IF any occurs here of course.

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Paul

 

how are we looking in my area currently? I keep seeing conflicting reports.....thanks

All depends on todays 12z runs I guess, Usually we see a shift eastwards and this will be key for either Fri into Saturday or Saturday into Sunday, I reckon we will do ok from this as the Plume destabilises from the west over the next 3 days!

[Nights King]

If you're contemplating heading down to the coast to see the action coming in, apart from being on the IoW, I would head to Barton on Sea, to the west of the IoW. Or, Bognor Regis to the east. That wouldn't be a bad bet as you've got A31 and A27 nearby to get back on the road.

 

You think west country will see some real (more than 2 consecutive strikes in area) thunder storms this time round? often they move through our region with odd rumble just to intensify up into the midlands and east.

 

.

[Chris K]

Earlier this week it looked likely I would have to cancel my climb up Snowdon Friday afternoon.

 

Now the met office forecast says a low risk of an isolated thundery shower is really all there should be, as anything from tonight is due to clear away by the time we arrive at the car park, leaving a muggy day with sunny spells for us to climb in.

 

Does anyone have any thoughts on whether it would be foolish to go climbing Friday? We aim to be back down off the mountain by early evening...

 

Driving back Saturday morning down the M5 towards Bristol could be exciting at least....

[Karl83]

It's looking very promising for the W country Karl....not seen something this good on the charts for our area for a long time! Just got to wait and see now on how things develop real time...

Yes its looking very promising Chris. I am constantly clock watching at the moment. Haven't done much work today its all too exciting!

[Chris K]

Yes its looking very promising Chris. I am constantly clock watching at the moment. Haven't done much work today its all too exciting!

 

I booked today and tomorrow off as I'm preparing stuff for my climb tomorrow....good timing really! No need to suffer the hot office in my horrid shirts that feel like paper haha...

[Mapantz]

You think west country will see some real (more than 2 consecutive strikes in area) thunder storms this time round? often they move through our region with odd rumble just to intensify up into the midlands and east. .

With the shift westwards and a northwest movement on it, you certainly stand a great chance of something good, perhaps severe. Slight chance for you tonight mullender.

[lfcdude]

You think west country will see some real (more than 2 consecutive strikes in area) thunder storms this time round? often they move through our region with odd rumble just to intensify up into the midlands and east.

 

.

 

 

Check ians twitter looks good for us! 

 

 

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather Â· 31m

W COUNTRY FRI-SAT Signs of potential W'ward shift in axis of thundery plume running N/NNW Fri night-Sat AM increases risk of severe weather

 

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather  Â·  33m

W COUNTRY THURS Dry until late eve/tonight when a line of thundery showers will arc N'wards into midnight/early hrs Fri across many areas...

Edited July 17, 2014 by lfcdude

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If I was on the south coast, Portsdown hill would be a great spot !! Looking exceptionally good at the moment for large parts of the country

[Chris K]

 

Check ians twitter looks good for us! 

 

 

I am looking forward to his local forecast tonight....