western pacific Typhoon Matmo

[Somerset Squall]

The tenth tropical depression of the season has formed about 175 nautical miles west-northwest of Yap, and is well east of the Philippines. The depression has some deepening convection over the LLCC, and some banding features taking shape. Shear is low, and waters warm, so intensification is expected.

 

The steering pattern is quite complex. 10W is currently stuck between a ridge to the northeast and another to the southeast. The competing steering influence means that 10W is expected to move little over the next day or so. The ridge to the northeast is expected to win out beyond this time, allowing 10W to track northwestwards towards Taiwan. Luckily for the Philippines, it looks like this new system should not affect them as much as Rammasun did, as 10W should pass to the northeast. Taiwan need to keep a close eye on 10W however, as the depression is likely to be at typhoon strength near Taiwan by day 5, barring any track changes.

 

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

JMA have upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Matmo, with winds of 35kts. JTWC have also raised the winds to 35kts in the latest advisory. I think Matmo could be about to undergo rapid intensification- the system has a small but tight core with some very cold cloud tops and strong banding features wrapping around the western quadrant. Matmo is a small system, which increases the chances of rapid intensification given the right conditions.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[knocker]

Chinese global model intensifies #Matmo into a strong typhoon & tracks to near Taiwan pic.twitter.com/WyRoC7C8NO

Edited July 18, 2014 by knocker

[Somerset Squall]

Matmo has strengthened into a 65kt typhoon. Further strengthening, perhaps rapid, will occur as Matmo heads northwestwards towards Taiwan. The track forecast from JTWC has shifted westwards which puts Luzon more at risk from some impact from Matmo.

[knocker]

Typhoon #Matmo generating deep/cold convection -85°C as vertical wind shear looks to be abating pic.twitter.com/gi1XizfQD2

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, Matmo has suffered some shear over the last 24hrs but is moving into an area of lower shear to the northwest. Intensity has risen slightly, to 70kts. As Knocker has said, some very cold topped convection has exploded over the LLCC of Matmo this evening, and now shear is lessening, Matmo should be able to strengthen at a faster pace than recently. JTWC forecast a peak of category 3 on the SS scale, and a landfall on Taiwan in a little over 2 days time at 105kt intensity. Weakening will obviously occur over Taiwan, but Matmo should make a second landfall, this time in Southeastern China, still at typhoon strength.

[Somerset Squall]

Matmo has strengthened a little, to 80kts. The typhoon exhibits some good banding features, and deep, centralised convection. However, there is no well defined eye presently. Matmo is forecast to strengthen a little more before landfall in Taiwan, and is expected to be a 95kt cat 2 according to JTWC's latest forecast. Landfall should occur in about 18hrs time. After crossing Taiwan, a second landfall should occur, this time on China. As Matmo reaches the westwards extent of the subtropical ridge, it will recurve eastwards over land and emerge as a weak tropical depression over the East China Sea.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Matmo has become a category 2 on the SS scale, with winds of 85kts. The eye is still not very well defined or clear, but is surrounded by  moderately deep central dense overcast and strong convective banding. Landfall is expected on Taiwan within the next 12hrs, so significant further intensification appears unlikely. Nevertheless, Matmo is expected to deliver flooding rains and damaging winds to Taiwan, with weather conditions worsening from this afternoon.

 

[knocker]

Typhoon #Matmo dumps 15+ inches of rain on Taiwan, kills pig farmer: http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201407230002.aspx â€¦ pic.twitter.com/gfKrtYgvwo

[Somerset Squall]

Matmo crossed Taiwan and has now moved inland across eastern China. The last advisory was issued yesterday by JTWC as Matmo started dissipating.