central pacific Tropical Storm Wali

[Somerset Squall]

A disturbance that formed in the Eastern Pacific basin a few days ago has moved into the Central Pacific basin and become the first tropical depression to form in the basin this year. 01C has a decent amount of convection obscuring the LLCC, with some formative banding. 01C appears to be in a pretty favourable environment characterised by low shear and warm sea temperatures. A typical west-northwesterly track is expected, which does mean that 01C will be moving towards Hawaii, so it does need watching. Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) will be issuing their first advisory soon, it'll be interesting to see how much strengthening they forecast. 01C's structure and the favourable envionment does suggest that 01C should intensify, at least in the short term. Shear is quite high to the system's northwest, which could cause weakening in the longer term.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

The first forecast from CPHC is out, and does indeed indicate some strengthening, but then weakening as 01C heads northwest into much higher shear. CPHC expect a modest peak of 40kts.

[Somerset Squall]

CPHC have just issued a special advisory, indicating winds have risen to 40kts, and thus 01C is upgraded to Tropical Storm Wali.

 

Because Wali has strengthened quicker than forecast, CPHC now expect a peak of 50kts prior to the rapid increase in shear expected in around 24hrs time.

[Somerset Squall]

Wali did not strengthen beyond 40kts. Shear has risen over the system and is quickly tearing it apart. The LLCC is now devoid of convection s it gets sheared off to the east. Winds are down to 30kts according to NRL so CPHC will likely downgrade Wali to a tropical depression next advisory. In the face of such strong shear (increasing to 50kts in the next 12hrs), Wali is likely on the way out.