Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Tropical Storm Genevieve has formed in the far west of the basin, a long way out to sea. Winds are at 40kts. Genevieve has probably peaked, as shear is increasing over the storm, already displacing convection from the LLCC. Even stronger shear lies on Genevieve's generally westwards path, which will cause Genevieve to weaken soon, as it moves into the Central Pacific.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 29
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Shear doing it's damage to Genevieve:

     

    post-1820-0-53734800-1406330549_thumb.jp

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve has weakened to a tropical depression, as the LLCC is devoid of convection. Unless it comes back, Genevieve isn't long for this world.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve has moved into the Central Pacific as a 30kt tropical depression. Convection has made a bit of a comeback today, but is still sheared east of the LLCC. Genevieve has about another 48hrs of shear and dry air to battle before it, or it's remnants, may encounter a more favourable environment. CPHC forecasts degeneration into a remnant low in about 24hrs, and then mention the possibility of regeneration thereafter.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Genevieve has succumed the effects of dry air, at least for the time being. The CPHC noted that convection has been absent near the LLCC (low level circulation center) for too long, with only some convection remaining near the east of the system. Therefore, they have issued their last advisory. 

     

    Still, it appears that Gevenvieve hasn't yet given its last breath, as there are probabilities of renewed development in a few days. The CPHC gives Genevieve a 30% chance of redeveloping within the next 48 hours. 

     

    Given recent satellite trends (as of 15:00 UTC), one coud argue that the reorganization is already occuring. Deep convection has been on the increase over and to the east of the LLCC. The convection is still pulsating, though, and there appears to be little curvature in the low levels. Below is a DVORAK satellite image loop of Ex-Genevieve:

     

    Posted Image

    DVORAK satellite loop of Ex-Gevevieve. (Courtesy: NOAA)

     

    Sources:

    http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2014/TCDCP2.EP072014.012.1407280243

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07E/07E_floater.html

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Convection has increased and persisted over the remnant low of Genevieve this afternoon and evening, and CPHC have re-upgraded the system to a 30kt tropical depression. Genevieve's second life is not forecast to be any more impressive than the first one. Shear, for now, is low, so Genevieve is expected to become a tropical storm again, with a 40kt peak forecast (the same strength Genevieve achieved first time round). In a few days time, shear is expected to increase again, and as Genevieve is quite small, it could succumb quite easily to any increase in shear.

     

    A general westerly track is expected through the Central Pacific. This should keep Genevieve well south of Hawaii.

     

    post-1820-0-77083200-1406675210_thumb.jp

     

     

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve remains a 30kt tropical depression, and is struggling in moderate shear and dry air. Convection is displaced west of the centre, and has become less deep today. Shear could ease in 24hrs time, but Genevieve may not survive that long. Waters remain warm along track, but further intrusions of dry air are possible. So, it looks like significant strenghening appears unlikely.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve has degenerated into a remnant low for the second time. The LLCC has become completely devoid of convection, and there is only an occasional cell or two popping up to the west. Genevieve's remnants are expected to continue westwards, and may reach an area of lower shear in about 24hrs. Will Genevieve come back for a third time? We shall see. Once the shear eases the environment isn't desperately favourable- the air looks quite dry to the west, but waters are still warm. But for now, Genevieve is no longer a tropical cyclone.

     

    post-1820-0-50503800-1406843366_thumb.jp

    Edited by Somerset Squall
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Convection has increased over the remnant low of Genevieve this morning. CPHC give a 50% chance of Genevieve coming back for a third life, as shear has decreased and waters are warm south of Hawaii. If the current convection perisists, then I expect ex-Genevieve to be upgraded to a tropical depression for the third time this afternoon.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Not only has the convection persisted over the remnant low of Genevieve, it has expanded a lot, with banding features forming too. Genevieve having a third chance seems almost certain now. I expect an upgrade very soon from CPHC. What a stubborn little system this is. Some models take Genevieve into the Western Pacific basin. IF this occurs, Genevieve will be one of the few to exist in the Eastern pacific, Central Pacific and West Pacific. Will be interesting to see if it makes it. This comeback already seems far more impressive than the last one.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve has been re-upgraded to a 30kt tropical depression. Genevieve is in an area of low shear and warm water. Some strengthening is expected therefore, and CPHC expect Genevieve to strengthen to at least 45kts. By day 5, if Genevieve survives this long, the system will be moving into the West Pacific.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve briefly became a tropical storm again but has since weakened back to a depression as shear unexpectedly increased. Genevieve looks quite dishevelled on satellite imagery, but shear is expected to ease and allow Genevieve to strengthen as it continues journeying through the Central Pacific.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    10 day old Genevieve is holding it's own as a tropical depression for now. If shear eases, it looks like Genevieve could be around for another 10 days potentially, with some models forecasting Genevieve to become quite an intense typhoon in the West Pacific. Genevieve still has a long way to go before that happens but it's an interesting possibility!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve's convection has become considerably deeper and it looks on the verge of becoming a tropical storm again. Genevieve is expected to cross into the West Pacific in a couple days as a strengthening tropical storm as the current shear eases. As Genevieve moves into the West Pacific basin, it is expected to push north-northwest as the ridging breaks down to the north. This should keep Genevieve east of Wake Island. This also could bring Genevieve back into a higher shear environment by day 4, though this is uncertain. CPHC are forecasting a peak of 60kts in 5 days

    Edited by Somerset Squall
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve has strengthened to 40kts, which ties it with the strongest it's been so far on it's 11 day struggle through the Eastern and Central Pacific. Now, at long last, it looks like Genevieve will finlly be rewarded. The storm appears to be developing a central dense overcast, and is flanked by strong banding. It is soon set to move over the dateline and into the West Pacific. With the current organisation of the system, lower shear and warm waters along track, there is not much to stop Genevieve becoming a typhoon.

     

    post-1820-0-27274600-1407272938_thumb.jp

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve has continued to strengthen, and winds are now at the strongest they've been so far- 50kts. The central dense overcast has become very symmetrical, an indication that shear is low. At this rate, I don't think it will be long before Genevieve reaches a 65kt intensity. If it manages it before crossing the dateline it will be called a hurricane then branded a typhoon once it crosses. If current trends continue, I think it may achieve this.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Genevieve has become a hurricane, this having occurred in its third (!) lifetime. A large CDO (central dense overcast) currently encompasses the LLCC, and this CDO shows very well-defined curvature. Furthermore, there are some banding features present to the northwest of Genevieve.

     

    Posted Image

    Visible satellite loop of Genevieve (Couresy: NOAA)

     

    The forecast of Genevieve shows the system recurving to the north, and strengthening into a category 2 hurricane in about 3 days before shear starts to impact the system.

     

    On the current forecast track, Genevieve will cross the western Pacific in about 18 hours, which seems now to be a formality. This would place Genevieve in an illustrious list of cyclones that have been in the Western, Central and Eastern Pacific basin. Wikipedia suggests that there have been eight cyclones which also achieved this after the beginning of the Satellite era (1979). The most notable of these systems was category 5 hurricane John (1994), existing for more than 30 days and also crossing the international dateline twice. The track of John is given below:

     

    Posted Image

    Track of Hurricane John (1994)

     

    Sources:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_hurricane#Central_Pacific

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07E/07E_floater.html

    http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2014/TCDCP2.EP072014.038.1408061444

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Having followed Genevieve through it's 13 day battle with shear and twice degenerating into a remnant low, it sounds odd, but I'm pleased Genevieve has become a hurricane. Conditions look very good ahead for Genevieve, barring any surprises (for example: shear), Genevieve could become quite a potent system. CPHC are forecasting a peak of 95kts, but I think Genevieve has the potential to get stronger than this. What a remarkable system!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve's eye is clearing out. Winds are at 75kts currently. This has Major Hurricane written all over it, except when it reaches that intensity it's likely to be classified as a typhoon.

     

    post-1820-0-36589400-1407369377_thumb.jp

    Edited by Somerset Squall
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Well no, Genevieve didn't wait until crossing the dateline. The hurricane has explosively intensified overnight, and is now a major hurricane, with winds of 115kts, a cat 4 on the SS scale. Is cat 5 out of the question? Maybe not, as shear looks low and waters warm for another day or so. What a remarkable thing that would be given it's history!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Given its radar presentation I find it highly likely that she's a category 5 tonight.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Genevieve has crossed the dateline and become one of a select few tropical cyclones to exist in the Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific and Western Pacific. It has also continued to strengthen and is now a 130kt cat 4 Super Typhoon. Cat 5 strength is likely to be reached later today as SB says, as Genevieve swings north just west of the dateline.

    According to JTWC, Genevieve has strengthened by 80kts in 24hrs, from 50kts to 130kts. Seriously impressive stuff!

    Edited by Somerset Squall
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    80kts in 24 hours? Wow!

     

    ADT is estimating minimum pressure to be 894mb, with sustained winds of 143kts (165mph), raw T values of 7.1. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2014/adt/text/GENEVIEVE_Y-list.txt . Cloud top temps seem stable but the eye looks to be warming still.

     

    Seems like a bit of an overestimation to me, but I thought it would be worth mentioning. Regardless of how strong it is, it is beautiful to look at on satellite. Not very often you see a storm so symmetrical!

     

    Looks a little bit like a weaker version of Haiyan

     

    Posted Image

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Genevieve is now a cat.5 typhoon!

     

    1. SUPER TYPHOON 07E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 04202 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPACMAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGEWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY---WARNING POSITION:071200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 178.6EMOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTSPOSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NMPOSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITEPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KTWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLYRADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANTRADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANTRADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    Incredible 48 hour development - pinched this graphic from a post on a tropical site.

     

    Posted Image

     

    This looks to have annular characteristics too.

     

    From the latest discussion.

     

     

    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 692 NM
    WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 07E HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
    PAST 24 HOURS INCREASING 75 KNOTS FROM 65 KNOTS TO 140 KNOTS.
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
    SYSTEM WITH A 15 NM EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
    CURRENT POSITION. EIR DEPICTS AN ANNULAR SIGNATURE WITH A SYMMETRIC
    RING OF UNIFORM CONVECTION. A 071231Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATED A 60 NM
    DIAMETER EYEWALL WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT.
    ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH EXCELLENT
    POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND
    NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON
    DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. STY 07E
    IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
    STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

     

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...