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Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    A new thread as we enter the last month of Summer.

     

    Current modeling shows a more changeable spell now moving in to the UK as a developing Atlantic trough will be the main influence over the next few days with rain or showers affecting many of us.

    Signs as we go into next week of some improvement as pressure starts to rise further south but further runs needed to see how this may develop.

     

    There's been some really good discussions in here this Summer so thanks to all our regular posters for that.

     

    Anyone not to keen on being to analytical are always welcome to post more general musings on their hopes or moans about the charts in the other thread here-

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79882-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2014/

     

    Ok on we go then with the 12z runs already out for discussions.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    GFS is showing more of an unsettled week next on it's 12z

     

    With it chopping & changing as much as it is, I wouldn't put much faith in specifics, but one has the feeling we are not going to see a return to the warm/hot settled conditions for the next week or so.

     

    Still, the South East  never really loses the warm air, and temps look to hold up well in the low to mid twenties for most of next week.

     

    Elsewhere, mid teens  under the showers/rain, low twenties in any sunshine.

     

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    I think I'll take each day as it comes, as I was forecast to have showers for most the day, and I have not seen a single drop.

     

    And that forecast was last night :cc_confused:

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    GFS is showing more of an unsettled week next on it's 12z

     

    With it chopping & changing as much as it is, I wouldn't put much faith in specifics, but one has the feeling we are not going to see a return to the warm/hot settled conditions for the next week or so.

     

    Still, the South East  never really looses the warm air, and temps look to hold up well in the low to mid twenties for most of next week.

     

    Elsewhere, mid teens  under the showers/rain, low twenties in any sunshine.

     

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    I think I'll take each day as it comes, as I was forecast to have showers for most the day, and I have not seen a single drop.

     

    And that forecast was last night :cc_confused:

      models  are  not  looking very good  at all for at lest the  first  2  weeks!!!

    Edited by Polar Maritime
    To remove write-off comment .
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Yes yet another unsettled run from this evenings GFS, With the Jet buckling South of the UK or directly over us, And fronts pushing in from the West off the Atlantic bring very wet conditions in places. Nice to see some cooler 850's push South towards the end of the run..

     

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    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The next three days or so are going to be much more unsettled across the uk with widespread heavy showers and a high risk of thunder but with sunny spells too, as is the nature of showers, some areas may miss them and enjoy lots of warm sunshine but most of us will catch them at some point. Friday night and through saturday, a large area of potentially disruptive rainfall with local flooding is set to push northwards through the uk and eventually become slow moving or grind to a halt over scotland for a time, becoming very windy too in places, especially for scotland but either side of the main rain zone there should be some warm sunshine as well as those sharp showers.

     

    Tonight's GEFS 12z mean shows the azores anticyclone ridging up across the south / southeast by early next week with a decent window of fine, very warm and sunny weather for the south and east but the north & west will probably stay unsettled with persistent lower heights to the north west of the uk, the unsettled weather occasionally making inroads southeastwards.

     

    Hopefully the Azores high will continue to ridge into the uk through august, I think it will..at least for more southern / eastern parts of england with plenty more very warm sunshine. :)

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    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM has heights further south next week compared to GFS ... courtesy in part to a chunk of northern heights above the Icelandic trough. Now there have been a few instances this summer where the ECM has done this and moved towards GFS later ... so I'm backing the GFS tonight, which is warmer, no drier for most except the SE, which gets very little rain off the GFS 12z.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    Yes yet another unsettled run from this evenings GFS, With the Jet buckling South of the UK or directly over us, And fronts pushing in from the West off the Atlantic bring very wet conditions in places. Nice to see some cooler 850's push South towards the end of the run..

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Indeed, looking very unsettled for most from gfs and ecm'. Some brief plumes at times but again the Atlantic looks in charge from both models. I think August will be very different......
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    A glorious Euro run.

     

    While not always cool the 1020mb line fails to get over any of the UK during the entire run.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    Indeed, looking very unsettled for most from gfs and ecm'. Some brief plumes at times but again the Atlantic looks in charge from both models. I think August will be very different......

     

    Hello ANYWEATHER can I just ask in what way do you think the WHOLE  of August will be very different?

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The anomaly charts tonight are all singing from the same hymn sheet for the end of next week. Upper trough to the NW; warm air to the NE and no great build up of heights to the south.

     

    Surface analysis is basically a slack are of low pressure just to the NW which influences most of the UK. The GFS attemtps to perhaps suggest a slight NE movement of the Azores ridge but the position of the jet suggests this is about all it is. Temps about average.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    The ecm ens. mean reluctant to drop the trough to our West, with its presence throughout... "the hottest August for 300 years" may be a slow burner based on the above post from knocker and the output tonight.

    Days 5-10,8-13 height anom.

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    Temp anomaly days 5-10

    Posted Image

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    Hello ANYWEATHER can I just ask in what way do you think the WHOLE  of August will be very different?

    There is no indication from the models that there will be fine weather all the way through august first half looks unsettled, second half !,?..
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Tonight's GFS is showing a plume pushing North over the UK out in the run, A stark difference in runs shows great uncertainty.

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

    Surely not just a plume that PM?

     

    (To me the term 'plume' suggests short lived, UK-clipping heat/instability. Or am I wrong?)

     

    If anything anywhere near the above came close to verifying for that time around mid August. we'd surely be looking at somewhat more resilient and widespread HP domination?

     

    Or am I misunderstanding that chart .... ?

    Edited by William of Walworth
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    Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

    Excellent posts from Tamara and John btw. I find it hard sometimes to follow that level of detailed analysis, but guidance from experts is always good for less informed amateurs like me ...

     

    And more selfishly for me, I see only quite limited scope for extreme August washouts from what both of them are suggesting,

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    The GFS is still looking unsettled, but not a complete washout, with the unsettled weather taking the form of showers

     

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    The continent looks hot through out, what would it take to tap into that heat again?

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Surely not just a plume that PM?

     

    (To me the term 'plume' suggests short lived, UK-clipping heat/instability. Or am I wrong?)

     

    If anything anywhere near the above came close to verifying for that time around mid August. we'd surely be looking at somewhat more resilient and widespread HP domination?

     

    Or am I misunderstanding that chart .... ?

     

    At the moment that is all I would call it, Weak signs are still there this morning in the last few 2/3 frames way out in FI so not worth going into any detail. As i said last night, Lot's of wild swings at this range.

     

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    But there's a lot of water to run under the bridge before then, With the GFS continuing to show unsettled & wet pattern off the Atlantic.

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Slight role reversals from GFS and ECM this morning. Both have NW/SE split Mon-Weds next week, but after that GFS has copious amounts of rain, whilst ECM heats us up in time for a week end storm. Both seem at the extreme ends of charts in general.

    Interesting both GFS and GEM still bring ex-hurricane into play at D9 - with huge impact on our synoptics

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Way out in FI but if this low did come off thunderstorms could be fairly widespread in the east given the 850's

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The GFS and ECM anomaly has a familiar ring for next weekend. The trough still centred Iceland with perhaps the GFS pushing it slightly further east. The warm air still to the NE and little build up of heights to the south and this lack of amplification of the Azores high is a feature well into the following week giving a west/east Atlantic flow.

     

    So the surface synopsis is much the same with a slack area of low pressure over the UK with the Azores ridge doing it's little nudging job but the jet is still positioned to limit any development. Temps on the whole around average but briefly quite warm in the SE towards the end of the week although the ECM scuppers that with a pretty cold day on Sunday.

     

    N.B. After the weekend observations are just that.

     

     

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    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Warm / Hot plume only reaches the South East though. In Manchester Temps are around 20C Whilst the SE could be up to 28C.

     

    ECM looks better for Thundery weather!

     

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Looking at those GFS charts I don't think it's a true plume anyway- most of the really hot air misses the UK and most of the country would have a SW wind as opposed to a direct southerly which I usually associate with plume scenarios.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    Looking at those GFS charts I don't think it's a true plume anyway- most of the really hot air misses the UK and most of the country would have a SW wind as opposed to a direct southerly which I usually associate with plume scenarios.

     

    There has been a problem even getting plume conditions to the north of Spain this year - very pronounced rex block in the 500mb anomaly charts for summer so far.

     

    Posted Image

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