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Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Warm is the overall theme from ecm and gfs for just about all, but the newsmaker next week will be flooding rain,[ not temperatures], where and when is up for debate, but some folks are going to get some seriously high rainfall, ......... :nonono:  :closedeyes:  :angry:

post-6830-0-35291000-1406926678_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-27595000-1406926706_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

What do you mean by," running at a fairly high background re uppers and thicknesses" bluearmy? Genuine question.

 

The background signals are strong reg uppers& thicknesses ?

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

It's 'background' I'm struggling with.

 

 

The upper Atmosphere, Detail on the surface are still open to question.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The upper Atmosphere, Detail on the surface are still open to question.

 

Yes I can see that but isn't that often the case? What is different about this trough orientated scenario?

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Thanks for clearing that up Blue  :)

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I'm merely stating that the general level of thicknesses, uppers and sst's at the moment over the uk area leads to higher than average surface temps. That means when we have surface features that we might expect to lead to a cool day, we see temps managing to get to average at the very least, given a limited amount of solar input. Similarly, less than inspiring charts will lead to quite high temps in reality. perhaps think of the whole summer temp pattern being shifted a few hundred miles north of where we would expect it to be. at the moment, I'd say that londons 2014 summer climate is more akin to what I would expect to see just south of Paris.

 

Ah right Blue. If I'm reading this correctly what you are saying  is that, along with high SSTs, The temperature structure of the lower troposphere. thickness is a function of this, is such at the moment, it is leading to higher than normal surface temps for a given surface scenario , and this creates the context of the 'plume'. It may also be conducive to a plume just down the line. Thanks for the clarification and sorry for being a tad thick. :)

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

No one being thick - me just not explaining myself properly.

I don't think it's over complicated. The atmosphere in our vicinity is just warmer at the surface than you kight expect, having looked at the raw data.

I suppose this puts us closer to 'plumes' than we might usually be.

Certainly we have seen plumes to our east and hlb directing almost record high uppers into se Greenland.

Plumes ain't what they used to be !

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ECM this morning

 

A mini 'plume' ( temps around 25C )  travelling west to east Weds/Thurs along the south of the UK before much cooler weather sets in.

post-12275-0-15722000-1406963895_thumb.p

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post-12275-0-42597200-1406963924_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Models appear to be coming into line this morning and, funnily enough, if you'd averaged out the last 3 days runs you wouldn't have been far off. So no raging monsoon westerly, but no 'heatwave' either. Instead, many sunny days with decent temperatures and the odd shower, and one, possibly two days where the rain could last longer in places. Rain always more of an issue further to the NW and probably very little in the SE.

FI recommences next weekend when a variety of options are on the table.

Edited by rjbw
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Up-to next Thursday GFS shows some very wet weather for western Scotland and Ireland approaching 80 to 90mm for some, the further east you are the driest it is

 

Posted Image

 

Fast forward to t192 and totals start to increase for most however some parts don't see much rain at all, north eastern Scotland and parts of the south look fairly dry

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

What to say, really. Not much has changed looking at the ensembles. Out to day 10, heights continue to build to our NE, with the core centred east of Finland; thus, the UK struggles to get in on the party in any great way, esp for western parts. Where the trough continues to dominate/control, up to and beyond day 10.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

days 4-9, 8-13 Height anom.

 

Posted Image

temp anom days 7-12

 

Posted Image

GEFS height anom days 0-16 6Z

 

Posted Image

GFS Ens - Belfast, NI

 

Looking at the ensembles for Belfast where I am currently on holiday - the NW looks like staying unsettled throughout, with rain spikes aplenty and pressure struggling to rise above 1015hpa; the 6z op was a clear outlier post day 8 in terms of rising pressure,

 

So, GEFS and ECM ens continue to show a changeable and at times unsettled outlook for the next week and beyond, most unsettled in the west, with the SE seeing the best of any brighter periods. Just to mention, this is a forecast from the models, not a hope cast. I do realise this may not accommodate most in here. But it is what it is. A forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

What to say, really. Not much has changed looking at the ensembles. Out to day 10, heights continue to build to our NE, with the core centred east of Finland; thus, the UK struggles to get in on the party in any great way, esp for western parts. Where the trough continues to dominate/control, up to and beyond day 10.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

days 4-9, 8-13 Height anom.

 

Posted Image

temp anom days 7-12

 

Posted Image

GEFS height anom days 0-16 6Z

 

Posted Image

GFS Ens - Belfast, NI

 

Looking at the ensembles for Belfast where I am currently on holiday - the NW looks like staying unsettled throughout, with rain spikes aplenty and pressure struggling to rise above 1015hpa; the 6z op was a clear outlier post day 8 in terms of rising pressure,

 

So, GEFS and ECM ens continue to show a changeable and at times unsettled outlook for the next week and beyond, most unsettled in the west, with the SE seeing the best of any brighter periods. Just to mention, this is a forecast from the models, not a hope cast. I do realise this may not accommodate most in here. But it is what it is. A forecast.

Yes fair enough draztic a pretty good summary overall of the current outputs i think.

The +ve ht anomalies around Scandinavia proving to be stubbornly persistent for at least another week.

The difference this time is the Atlantic/Euro wave pattern is just a little further east so the Upper trough is closer to the UK which will continue to plague western and more northern regions through the coming days by the looks.

Certainly a better few days for much of next week for those further se with temperatures modeled into the upper 20'C in a few places.

The Atlantic looks like making another push towards the weekend with perhaps some heavy rain moving through eventually.

Beyond that it does appear to remain a nw/se split with some eastward movement of a suppressed Azores high towards the European mainland with a flatter looking flow from the west/south west and the continuation of Iceland low heights.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

No repeat of the yesterday's GFS 12z plume this evening, it had little support and even the hi-res are toning the uppers down for mid-week. From Monday the models continue to show a slack pressure flow over most of the UK with the Scandi ridge to the east and the trough centred around Iceland:

post-14819-0-98648400-1407000781_thumb.p Around late Wednesday the trough edges E/SE: post-14819-0-76631100-1407000837_thumb.p

Its a slow process but it does enough to put the majority of the UK under the influence of the jet; D6: post-14819-0-67838900-1407000959_thumb.p

A short wave and some fronts look likely to bring unsettled conditions to most. By D8 the GFS op has us under a shallow trough with the Azores a bit player for a couple of days but by D10 we are heading for another trough for 3-4 days:

post-14819-0-46523300-1407001208_thumb.p post-14819-0-85814700-1407001222_thumb.p

The control very similar to the op and maybe we are seeing the way forward. GEM is not dissimilar, it just notches up the cooler, wetter and windier scenario:

post-14819-0-07229900-1407001391_thumb.p

UKMO strongly resembles GFS at D6: post-14819-0-15859800-1407001491_thumb.g

This all ties in with this morning's ECM run up to D9 where it goes off on one (cut off low) with little support from the ens: post-14819-0-80179700-1407001638_thumb.g

Despite the outlook I suspect temps in the SE to still be 2-3c above average on the dry days, and never too far away from warmer continental air, but closer to average in the north. Wetter the further W/NW and with high SST's there could be high precipitation totals as the cooler air moves in later next week.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Very unsettled run from the GEM this evening with multiple small LP systems and an ever-heading-southwards jet.

 

 

May even be a dodgy run?

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

This isn't looking good for those who were hoping this August would break the trend of recent Augusts and be decent.

Still there's a lot left of the month and the models could easily change as time goes on. I'm still hoping for just one day of 30C for meteorological interest :p

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

ECM hinting at some sort of background signal for intense LP storms:  T216: post-14819-0-11954800-1407005529_thumb.g

 

Both ECM and GEM vary from GFS in that the latter pushes Scandi heights east whilst GEM/ECM even at T240 keep heights to the North/NE:

 

GEM post-14819-0-12100700-1407005768_thumb.p  ECMpost-14819-0-04623200-1407005800_thumb.p  GFS post-14819-0-61956900-1407005721_thumb.p

 

The GEM & ECM effectively still hold the eastern block so the Atlantic hits a brick wall and any LP systems have the potential to initially deepen. ECM at D10 sends the heights to Iceland. I am again not convinced of this outcome:

 

post-14819-0-14460600-1407006073_thumb.g  ...Not one GEFS member is even close to this and the mean highlights this: post-14819-0-34621200-1407006132_thumb.p

 

Could be wrong but probably another example why ECM D10 verification has been running at low levels for a while? Up till D8 ECM much like other models.

 

 
Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

all i say just looking  at the August outlook people can put the BBQ away for a  while  its  looking  a  bit wet at times  at  the moment!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Two runs in a row where ECM wants to have late autumnal lows for high summer. Is this residual tropical energy from ex Bertha interacting with the base of the cold upper pool. This run seems to dissipate Bertha to only an open wave just east of Florida and the GFS barely initiated on the 06Z and 12Z runs.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM hinting at some sort of background signal for intense LP storms:  T216: Posted ImageECM1-216-3.GIF

 

Both ECM and GEM vary from GFS in that the latter pushes Scandi heights east whilst GEM/ECM even at T240 keep heights to the North/NE:

 

GEM Posted Imagegemnh-0-216.png  ECMPosted ImageECH1-216.GIF.png  GFS Posted Imagegfsnh-0-216.png

 

The GEM & ECM effectively still hold the eastern block so the Atlantic hits a brick wall and any LP systems have the potential to initially deepen. ECM at D10 sends the heights to Iceland. I am again not convinced of this outcome:

 

Posted ImageECM1-240-2.GIF  ...Not one GEFS member is even close to this and the mean highlights this: Posted Imagegens-21-1-240-3.png

 

Could be wrong but probably another example why ECM D10 verification has been running at low levels for a while? Up till D8 ECM much like other models.

Well the ECM has given us some truly bonkers runs this year, and this is right up there, a depression more like a tropical storm, severe gales with temps in the 80s on the northern edge ... hold on a second, hasn't GEM thrown out a few very deep depressions too in recent days? Would be fascinating to see what weather it would produce but can't see this coming off, never seen anything like it in August.

There's more than a hint of plumes for the end of week in tonight's 12z runs, but currently being modelled as Kent clippers. As has been the case for days, warm throughout to D7 to the south and east of Birmingham, average temps and more rain elsewhere apart from perhaps the east coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The operational run looks bonkers (and probably is) but the ens mean anomalies do 

lend it some credence.

 

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