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Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS is showing the Atlantic making a return by the 10/11th, Some very wet Autumnal synoptic's, With the strong Jet Stream directly over the UK.. Plenty of pleasant Summery weather this coming week to enjoy. 

 

gfsnh-0-264.png?12gfsnh-0-336.png?12gfsnh-5-360.png?12

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GFS is showing the Atlantic making a return by the 10/11th, Some very wet Autumnal synoptic's, With the strong Jet Stream directly over the UK.. Plenty of pleasant Summery weather this coming week to enjoy. 

 

 

 

Fortunately the GFS op has little support at the moment. The London ensembles for pressure highlight this:

 

post-14819-0-00629400-1409507625_thumb.g

 

The control keeps higher pressure till around T300: post-14819-0-21065000-1409507712_thumb.p

 

The D10 mean: post-14819-0-68153400-1409508424_thumb.p  15 ensemble members have HP in charge at T240 (4LP and 3 Transitional).

 

GEM still completely at odds with GFS next weekend with low 1003mb over Ireland 12z Sunday with fronts running down the UK and very wet.

 

This morning was the same yet the GEM control was a lot more like the GFSpost-14819-0-63374500-1409507783_thumb.p

 

To be fair to all models, we have a blocked Atlantic flow at the moment, with the PV regrouping to its centre, so modelling how the slack troughs and ridges interact is proving troublesome:

 

post-14819-0-26750000-1409508067_thumb.p

 

I suspect each individual models are showing their bias in such circumstances and GEM looks like they may have handled this wrong this time (possibly).

 

NAVGEM still showing HP in charge till D8: post-14819-0-74631500-1409508244_thumb.p

 

UKMO looking OK at D6: post-14819-0-59426900-1409508294_thumb.g

 

ECM has flipped to the GFS this morning and tonight's run is consistent with that:

 

D6:post-14819-0-75531100-1409509895_thumb.g  D7: post-14819-0-45253500-1409510118_thumb.g

 

So still looking good for at least 10 days of settled weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ECM anomaly is still keeping the low but now in northern France. A rather cool weekend but I do like  the hot patch wizzing around the high and bringing great joy to Thurso on Sunday.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The models show a summery first week of the meteorological autumn for most of the uk with high pressure taking control and bringing scattered clouds and warm sunny spells with temperatures into the low 20's celsius, actually it looks like becoming very warm across southern parts of the uk later in the week, it won't be wall to wall sunshine, there will be banks of cloud floating around but some areas will have lots of sun. The exception to the fine story is tomorrow as weak fronts push southeast and become slow moving across the SE but brighter and drier weather will be following the band of rain to many northern and western areas. It looks like pressure will fall across the south into next weekend with an increasing risk of rain and showers, some heavy and thundery and staying warm and humid in the south. Into the following week, probably unsettled for central and eastern areas but drier and brighter for the west and north, staying warm in the south / se but closer to average elsewhere.. so it's goodbye summer but not goodbye to summery weather. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Well at least , some settled conditions for a week. Not so sure for the model output past next weekend ,ecm and gfs  keep swapping ideas! :cc_confused:  :nonono:  :closedeyes:  :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

According to Joe B. the the African wave train is enhancing, so some late surprises for the Uk, whether it be settled or stormy this Autumn! :closedeyes:

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Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Mmm GFS flip flopping around at the moment, yesterday the 12z was suggesting a retrogression of heights to the NW, today the opposite it has heights staying firm to our east then the atlantic barrelling in.. always a sign its an uncertain outlook. I always think Sunday's are the worst day for viewing the models, they often go off on one for some reason. So I won't be surprised if tomorrow the GFS once again shows the high ridging NW as we move into the second week of September.

 

When high pressure is on the scene at this time of year - I often give model watching a rest for a few days.. as it always seems to be a sluggish slow affair to a change, and the models always tend to play around with lots of scenarios, not knowing what to do.

 

That song springs to mind 'wake me up when September ends'... sorry September but I find it the most uninteresting month for model watching...

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes the Models always seem to struggle during the change in Seasons, Playing with the background signals..

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

I'm starting a new thread, So please hold off posting for moment.

 

Many Thanks, PM.

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