Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

The operational run looks bonkers (and probably is) but the ens mean anomalies do 

lend it some credence.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gifEDM101-216.gif

 

Run the 850 wind animation for the ensemble.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=4&map=0&type=1&archive=0

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

All models showing heights staying high to our NE for the foreseeable future, but importantly the core of these heights will be centred in a position just far enough east to enable the atlantic trough to dominate our weather with the traditional NW/SE divide, wettest coolest conditions for the NW, driest warmest weather for the SE.

 

No sign of a Spanish plume, nor the azores high coming into play to kill off the trough. Most likely scenario will be average temps in the north but wet here, above average temps and slightly drier than normal conditions for the south and east. Nothing particularly inspiring after the recent very good summer conditions, but certainly nothing particularly terrible (mind for those in the NW yesterday and today has seen preety awful conditions for high summer... ) - there is though a fine line developing between what could be a very poor first half to August for the NW, and a mediocre one for the SE - a little more energy in the jet and this could be the result..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ECM ens plays down the ops 850s  The upper air still has the deep trough south of Iceland with low pressure over the UK. The ops has the jet running around the low and this would support it's interpretation.

 

post-12275-0-52827200-1407012878_thumb.p

post-12275-0-49821700-1407012887_thumb.p

post-12275-0-54804800-1407012897_thumb.p

post-12275-0-31480100-1407012905_thumb.p

post-12275-0-93548500-1407012913_thumb.p

post-12275-0-40739600-1407012921_thumb.p

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM overdoing the low - Definite

On the other hand the ECM suggesting a way to pull up a pure source of hot continental air.

Posted Image

This chart interests me as it's a evolution which will deepen and sharpen the trough and allow a proper plume event. 

The UKMO is also sending a low towards Iberia along the subtropical jet, again this could lead to a possible rise in temperatures.

The GEM is much slower and the GFS phases the low around day 5 and has no effect later on. 

Given the longwave pattern, the chances of developing warmer weather is pretty high, this summer has proved that quite well as trough dominated FI charts have often been shifted westward with time. Something to watch as always.

This coming week is looking pretty reasonable, never dropping to even average levels of temperature in the south and even the north seeing better conditions for a time. Like this week I suspect that any rainfall will be showery in nature as fronts struggle to make an impact against the Sceuro block. So the convective thread should be kept ticking over this week.

Good to have you back Cap'n, your post is bang on as all your posts have been throughout the summer. With a profile like that, I don't think there can fail to be some heat drawn up sometime in the next 10 days.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Good to have you back Cap'n, your post is bang on as all your posts have been throughout the summer. With a profile like that, I don't think there can fail to be some heat drawn up sometime in the next 10 days.

Yes but it looks to be temporary and confined to the SE. Not exactly extraordinary given the time of year. Unsettled definitely the main theme from tonight's output.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

A very late or early post which ever your way but ecm and gfs show some unsettled conditions for alll, plumes of warmth and rain spreading north and east across the uk.....ecm is perhaps overdoing any low pressure.....in the twelve z....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

On the plus side, the GEFS 00z mean shows a warm outlook for most of the uk with temperatures generally into the low to mid 20's celsius range, warmest across the southeast where 80F is probable at times, however, it doesn't look particularly settled with pressure of 1010-1015 mb, it looks to me as though the weather during the next few weeks will be of a showery nature with sunny spells but with heavy showers dotted across the uk. As the pressure looks lowest to the north west, there is more likelihood that the showers will be more frequent and occasionally merge together and therefore, the least warm conditions with temperatures mostly in the high teens celsius, perhaps only mid teens c at times for the far north west. There is a chance that within this overall set up, we could have a few more plume events, at least for the south & east with continental conditions pushing north and bringing hot, hazy sunshine and T-Storms from time to time...perturbation 3 is a good example of this.  :)

post-4783-0-45911400-1407048948_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-80871500-1407048964_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-08397800-1407048977_thumb.pn

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Very interesting ECM this morning with an upper low situated SW of the UK. This leads to a surface low forming in much the same area that could lead to very warm air being transported into the UK by the beginning of next week. Watch this space.

 

post-12275-0-30108200-1407049261_thumb.p

post-12275-0-44918500-1407049273_thumb.p

post-12275-0-35367900-1407049281_thumb.p

post-12275-0-91808300-1407049290_thumb.p

post-12275-0-77377100-1407049305_thumb.p

post-12275-0-71196600-1407049317_thumb.p

post-12275-0-16213600-1407049330_thumb.p

post-12275-0-65193700-1407049342_thumb.p

post-12275-0-29605900-1407049360_thumb.p

post-12275-0-56397300-1407049371_thumb.p

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Yes but it looks to be temporary and confined to the SE. Not exactly extraordinary given the time of year. Unsettled definitely the main theme from tonight's output.

Uncertain would be a better description and the Metoffice seem to be holding their cards close for even the end of this coming week.

So what's the uncertainty, well we have a tropical storm bombing in the vicinity of western Europe.

At this point the GFS should be dropped from this mornings discussion as it handles this system completely differently, and I suspect incorrectly compared to the ECM/UKMO and GEM.

Yet the GEM and ECM give very different solutions? Well there is semi reliable rationale to this.

ECM

Posted Image

System already bombing in the Atlantic on a path running north of the Azores. But it's the low over us which will decide how things will pan out. The ECM wants to clear this system northwards allowing a rapid build of pressure to our east which also effects the UK.

Posted Image

Week 2 heatwave is the outcome with very hot and humid conditions and the usual risk of thundery downpours.

 

GEM

Posted Image

Split flow over the UK, hence low heights tend to get trapped over the UK, this sucks in the tropical system and hence by day 8

Posted Image

Pseudo-Autumn chart here, I say that as the temperatures would still hold up except in any prolonged spells of rain.

 

UKMO, quite similar to the ECM and is clearing the low northwards at day 6

Posted Image

 

We have an interesting few days ahead model output wise, as Knocker nicely says. Watch this space.

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GEFS mean seeing London temps for the next two weeks 2-3c above average but no sign of any trend for sustained heights. In fact the pattern beginning to look mobile so transient short wave ridges look the best case and these look to be SE centric:

 

post-14819-0-76361400-1407048962_thumb.g

 

GFS op much like last night for the next 10 days though one of the lows next weekend has been charted further south so maybe not so wet. We still have around Friday/Saturday now restricted for the SE/S a spell where the uppers rise slightly above the seasonal average but not really a plume:

 

post-14819-0-60832000-1407049333_thumb.p

 

As you would expect from early August if the sun gets a chance temps will be warm so just a normal good Summer day.

 

I noticed the Control run now showing a deep LP system at D8: post-14819-0-65198100-1407049652_thumb.p

 

About 33% of the GEFS have this feature, up from last night. ECM and GEM again show this:

 

post-14819-0-19505200-1407049869_thumb.g  post-14819-0-05997600-1407049877_thumb.p

 

Much like the GEFS support they are variations on the theme. Of course ECM throws up the most interesting one at D9/10:

 

post-14819-0-28692200-1407049951_thumb.g  post-14819-0-28065400-1407049972_thumb.g

 

GEM does not even come close to that and like the GEFS keeps it cooler: post-14819-0-00017400-1407050028_thumb.p

 

You know my thoughts on the ECM D8-10 runs...

 

ECM ends on this: post-14819-0-09234200-1407050191_thumb.g  GEM on this: post-14819-0-44617100-1407050206_thumb.p

 

So uncertainty that far out. Interestingly GEFS had no support for that D10 chart last night but this morning has 27%. Maybe ECM are onto something. More runs needed.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

im not expert, but wouldnt this

 

post-2797-0-82460900-1407051166_thumb.gi

 

support this? to some degree

 

post-2797-0-21554000-1407051190_thumb.gi

 

ok, i know the chances of the ecm becoming reality is pretty low, but id like to experience a chart like that. not only for some heat, but the huge thunderstorm potential that pretty rare chart would offer us.

 

ps.... isnt the word 'plume' being over used and incorrectly used too?... it seems now that everytime we get some high uppers, no matter from which scource, it a plume...

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

 

 

 

ps.... isnt the word 'plume' being over used and incorrectly used too?... it seems now that everytime we get some high uppers, no matter from which scource, it a plume...

 

I quite agree.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

Two runs in a row where ECM wants to have late autumnal lows for high summer. Is this residual tropical energy from ex Bertha interacting with the base of the cold upper pool. This run seems to dissipate Bertha to only an open wave just east of Florida and the GFS barely initiated on the 06Z and 12Z runs.

 

Posted Image

"Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81  8m

00Z EC develops the remnants of TS Bertha to the SW of the UK and hence pulls in a very warm SE'ly air mass - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif â€¦ "

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Ex Atlantic storm Bertha looks like is becoming more of a driver for our weather after D7 than previously modelled. So I would not rule out anything at the moment except possibly the ECM at D9.

 

It brings in a very warm upper flow and as expected has no support from its mean:

 

post-14819-0-57311500-1407055037_thumb.g  post-14819-0-38090000-1407055045_thumb.g

 

12c lower upper temps in parts of the UK compared to the op.

 

Looking at the members at D5 the op is in cluster 3 of 4 with less than 22% support within the suite.

 

GFS firming up on the wetter weather hitting the UK after the next few days of slack pressure. 8 days total at the moment: post-14819-0-95096800-1407055605_thumb.g

 

The most intense area is fluid at the moment but the NW looks nailed to be one of the wetter areas. Taking into account the GFS op does not pump up Bertha then these may be under estimates. UKMO also hinting that Bertha will approach the UK:

 

post-14819-0-28209300-1407055865_thumb.g

 

Could be interesting weather upcoming and the LR models may need to reevaluate Week 2-3 of August.

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes as has been stressed, Some interesting Model Watching coming up with Charts being shown like this by the ECMWF..

 

Some very unsettled and wet weather to come being shown this morning, As has been the theme for a good while now, Lot's to keep an eye on.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The comments about Bertha are very valid. When a tropical storm/ex hurricane gets into the Atlantic then no model and I mean no model deals with them very well so yes an interesting few days as the models attempt to get its full impact correctly predicted.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Just got around (been out strolling around Neolithic hilltops: knackered) to looking at the ECM ens. I note the surface analysis is such it's not dragging the warm up from Europe.

 

post-12275-0-96027200-1407061525_thumb.p

post-12275-0-71981300-1407061537_thumb.p

post-12275-0-98168100-1407061544_thumb.p

post-12275-0-42911000-1407061559_thumb.p

post-12275-0-53760100-1407061567_thumb.p

post-12275-0-81425600-1407061582_thumb.p

post-12275-0-73272100-1407061595_thumb.p

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well the 06z GFS run is out and again the slow and steady increase in influence of Bertha is shown

Posted Image

Previous run

Posted Image

Weak transient ridge but a whole sight different to the west/south westerly set up of the previous run. The GFS still dissipates Bertha into the main trough but one does wonder whether it will continue to shift towards the others in the 12z suite.

Again conditions don't look too bad, in fact temperatures should hit the mid twenties on most days this week and into the coming weekend.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

i love these scenarios as an ex TD drifts into the atlantic basin and the models are all over the place on it. ecm op 00z an outlier days 9 and 10 (no shock there) but the higher res of the op should deal better with bertha in the early stages. then again, we know that this higher res will tend to magnify small errors early on in the run such that it becomes too amplified late in the run. you pays your money ........

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes the topical depression throws everything up in the air wrt week 2.

ECM op certainly deepens it and phases it with the Atlantic trough from day 7 wich really sharpens the Atlantic/Euro wave pattern.

 

post-2026-0-86424600-1407066302_thumb.pn

 

drawing the continental heat towards the UK along with probable heavy and possibly thundery rain/showers as it meets the moist sub-tropical Atlantic air.

Compared to the way the UK and GFS seem to trending the ECM looks the most bullish in deepening the TS but never the less this new kid on the block will only serve to delay any return to the Azores high ridging this way.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Quite a variety of solutions in the placement of low pressure on the 06Z GEFS but enough support to indicate Bertha's energy will have some impact.

 

Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...