atlantic Hurricane Bertha

[Somerset Squall]

Convection increased near the well defined LLC of invest 93L overnight, and winds from recon were found to be at 40kts, so NHC upgraded 93L to Tropical Storm Bertha.

Shear and dry air continue to affect Bertha as it heads west-northwestwards into the eastern Caribbean. Shear isn't expected to significantly ease anytime soon, so Bertha will probably continue to struggle.

Bertha is expected to affect the eastern Caribbean before lifting northwestwards into the northeast Caribbean Sea. A recurve to the northeast is then expected east of the USA.

[summer blizzard]

Upgraded to 50mph. Recon reports center is not vertically stacked but there appears to be banding developing on the eastern side since shear is now from the west and not east.

Its going to be a real struggle for the next 48 hours including the hit on Haiti and Peurto Rico but Bertha if it survives should have higher heat content, a moisture atmosphere, slower speed and lower shear which all bode well for strengthening.

[summer blizzard]

Center is completely exposed with convection all to the east at the moment, probably because it's moving at 22mph. Will have to see what it does overnight or it could be downgraded.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Finally looks normal, should see continued strengthening from now on and indeed the NHC brings this to hurricane strength.

[Somerset Squall]

Still sheared at the moment, leaving the LLC C exposed. I don't think it'll intensify much until it clears Puerto Rico. But yes, shear looks lower in the western Atlantic so Bertha should respond.

[summer blizzard]

Well, on Saturday the center was not closed but north of the islands it is strengthening quickly and looks good. Nhc have it now at 65mph.

[Gael_Force]

Bertha becomes the second hurricane of the season.

 

Dropsonde surface reading -

 

1006mb (29.71 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 23.3°C (73.9°F) 140° (from the SE) 83 knots (96 mph)

 

This ugly looking storm has higher pressure and stronger winds than the more classically structured Arthur.

[summer blizzard]

Author got to 90mph, pressure is 998mb.

Amazing though that the models have had the track almost spot on from 10 days out but got the strength wrong 12 hours out. Bertha increased in strength by 30KT in 24 hours.

Certainly a resilient, unpredictable and dare I say hard working system.

[summer blizzard]

Down to a 65mph tropical storm. Will probably degenerate with shear rather than go extratropical.

[summer blizzard]

Still a 50mph tropical storm.

[Vorticity0123]

I've made a post analyzing the cyclone, its demise, the uncertainty associated with it and, finally, the weather in the extended timeframes. It can be found here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81078-possible-storm-bertha/page-3

Edited August 6, 2014 by Vorticity0123