storm bertha Possible storm 'Bertha'

[Skullzrulerz]

Yellow warning of Rain

 

For Wales

North West England

Yorkshire & Humber

West Midlands

East Midlands

East of England

South West England

London & South East England

 

Issued at: 

1037 on Thu 7 Aug 2014

 

Valid from: 

0015 on Sun 10 Aug 2014

 

Valid to: 

2345 on Sun 10 Aug 2014

 

There is the risk of severe weather during Sunday as a depression tracks over, or close to, the UK. At this stage there is more than average uncertainty in the forecast, but the public should be aware of the risk of heavy rain, strong winds and large waves, sufficient to disrupt transport and make outdoor activities dangerous. 

 

This is a particularly volatile situation, and this warning is likely to be changed as the event approaches.

 

The remains of hurricane Bertha, over the western side of the Atlantic on Thursday morning, will come steadily towards the UK. The transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast with confidence, and computer models continue to differ in the location and intensity of the resulting depression, which is expected to pass over, or close to, the UK from early on Sunday. 

 

There is the potential for widespread rainfall totals of more than 50 mm and coastal gusts of over 60 mph,  along with large waves. However, the system may pass harmlessly to the south of the country. or spread heavy rain even further north, and the public are advised to keep up to date with warnings.

Edited August 7, 2014 by Skulltheruler

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Will there be thunder - and if so how severe?

[TwisterGirl81]

Jesus, have you seen the latest GEFS chart, storm force winds in the the far south west as Bertha comes in......overnight Sunday with alot of rain!  The southwest would be affected alot!

 

I don't think i'll be sleeping much Saturday night....

 

I've got a feeling this could turn out more severe than forecasters have been saying, yesterday met office said they didn't think it would hit the uk.

 

Is this going to turn into the 1987 storm scenario?  Batten down the hatches guys, Big Bertha is on her way!!!

 

Metchecks thoughts:-

 

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/discussion.asp

Edited August 7, 2014 by TwisterGirl81

[TwisterGirl81]

Probably not but it would be interesting.

 

Have you seen the latest GEFS charts William?

[Skullzrulerz]

Have you seen the latest GEFS charts William?

Is there a link to the GEFS chart?

[Summer Sun]

Is there a link to the GEFS chart?

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z shows some very windy conditions developing for the south coast and especially the south west on Sunday

 

 

The strong winds then move further north as the day progresses

 

 

Into Monday and it remains windy for large parts of the country

 

[Bobby]

Jesus, have you seen the latest GEFS chart, storm force winds in the the far south west as Bertha comes in......overnight Sunday with alot of rain!  The southwest would be affected alot!

 

I don't think i'll be sleeping much Saturday night....

 

I've got a feeling this could turn out more severe than forecasters have been saying, yesterday met office said they didn't think it would hit the uk.

 

Is this going to turn into the 1987 storm scenario?  Batten down the hatches guys, Big Bertha is on her way!!!

 

Metchecks thoughts:-

 

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/discussion.asp

 

The NMM looks very rough down your way, gusts of 100km/h! The eye of the storm then passing directly over my house

 

 

Doubt it'll be that extreme but who knows.

[Skullzrulerz]

Beware even if the Bertha is not a powerful storm when it comes it could always be stronger then forecast. 

 

That has happened before with our range of storms last year.

 

And something else too

 

Sometimes the track of storms can still change slightly even just a few hours out,that could make a lot of difference. 

Edited August 7, 2014 by Skulltheruler

[TwisterGirl81]

The NMM looks very rough down your way, gusts of 100km/h! The eye of the storm then passing directly over my house

 

 

Doubt it'll be that extreme but who knows.

 

Oh my lord above me Lol  Looks awesome if you 're into severe type weather but having experienced 75mph+ gusts and over 50mph sustained winds during one of the winter storms when most tree's were bare  I don't fancy alot of tree's chances if this verifies!

Edited August 7, 2014 by TwisterGirl81

[vladthemert]

Jesus, have you seen the latest GEFS chart, storm force winds in the the far south west as Bertha comes in......overnight Sunday with alot of rain!  The southwest would be affected alot!

 

I don't think i'll be sleeping much Saturday night....

 

I've got a feeling this could turn out more severe than forecasters have been saying, yesterday met office said they didn't think it would hit the uk.

 

Is this going to turn into the 1987 storm scenario?  Batten down the hatches guys, Big Bertha is on her way!!!

 

Metchecks thoughts:-

 

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/discussion.asp

 

actually agree my fear people wont take warnings serious.  Think met too quick call a miss UK anouncement this been spread by media.  I can only hope its not severe it passes tamely with nice thrill of storm and no lives are at risk.

[Mapantz]

Bear in mind the impact matrix, it is low. I still think the winds are being overdone and rainfall will be more of an issue.

[Bobby]

Oh my lord above me Lol  Looks awesome if you 're into severe type weather but having experienced 70mph gusts and over 50mph sustained winds during one of the winter storms when most tree's were bare  I don't fancy alot of tree's chances if this verifies!

 

Yes such winds will cause a lot more damage this time of year with the trees in leaf.

 

NOAA are predicting a more developed system than they were yesterday and further North. Nightmare to forecast this one. I think we will get hit though, just how hard...

 

Rain might be the biggest issue.

[TwisterGirl81]

Bear in mind the impact matrix, it is low. I still think the winds are being overdone and rainfall will be more of an issue.

 

What is an 'Impact Matrix'?  It's only been on this run (6z) where the winds have been that noteworthy though, I thought it should decrease as we get nearer the time not get stronger....This same thing happened during the winter storms where each run they just got stronger....

 

I've got an uneasy feeling about this!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Could someone clarify if there is likely to be a convective and electrical element to this weather system?

 

Not strictly because I want it to be ( though I do ) but just out of curiosity and to help me understand a bit more about this type of set up

 

Thanks

Edited August 7, 2014 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Skullzrulerz]

What is an 'Impact Matrix'?  It's only been on this run (6z) where the winds have been that noteworthy though, I thought it should decrease as we get nearer the time not get stronger....This same thing happened during the winter storms where each run they just got stronger....

 

I've got an uneasy feeling about this!!

 

The met office has a Impact Matrix for its weather warnings.

You should see it on the right.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1407625200&regionName=uk

[Skullzrulerz]

The NMM looks very rough down your way, gusts of 100km/h! The eye of the storm then passing directly over my house

 

 

Doubt it'll be that extreme but who knows.

 

Cornwall and the south west are going to be in serious stuff is this happens.

[Nick L]

Remember that Meteciel charts are in km/h, not mph!

[lassie23]

Hopefully this hasn't already been posted, interesting video from the beeb about various storms across the globe at the moment, including Bertha! Which looks like hitting the southern half of the UK! Brace yourselves for some ridiculous headlines from the Daily Express, or have they already done Bertha? :unknw:   I don't know because I don't read that crappy paper! Yes the SW could get hit quite badly, but hopefully nothing like the storms that struck last winter!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/28690978

[Mapantz]

The ECM still stands it's ground and doesn't really develop it in to anything significant. The NMM14 shows the the south east taking the brunt of it rather than the south west.

[TwisterGirl81]

Remember that Meteciel charts are in km/h, not mph!

 

70mph is still very strong when tree's are in full leaf and we have alot of tree's in the southwest.

 

Met Office are still taking the storm to the south of the UK, basically no one has a clue at the moment, some say it'll hit us, some don't.....

 

I guess we will know more better tomorrow afternoon on what Bertha is likely to do....

[lassie23]

70mph is still very strong when tree's are in full leaf and we have alot of tree's in the southwest.

 

Met Office are still taking the storm to the south of the UK, basically no one has a clue at the moment, some say it'll hit us, some don't.....

 

I guess we will know more better tomorrow afternoon on what Bertha is likely to do....

In that case, best not to panic until tomorrow! Bertha could end up in France by then! :unknw:

[vladthemert]

Cornwall and the south west are going to be in serious stuff is this happens.

 

humber too low lying land winds that strong forcing north sea up the humber will cause a lot flooding

[Skullzrulerz]

In that case, best not to panic until tomorrow! Bertha could end up in France by then! :unknw:

Or it could go up north.

[BrickFielder]

  Still way too early to tell and I think the key is when the low pressure becomes extra tropical. By extra tropical I mean tends to go north of the jetstream.

 

 

One thing to notice is the jetstream exit with divergent winds aloft, which would might make you start to think about thunderstorms in any warm sector the system may have (Affecting the continent or areas east of the central low).

Dewpoints of 12 -14 C might be a little low for an ex hurricane so my guess would be rainfall is currently a little under done.

 

Timing and positioning is critical but NMM charts currently show an interesting development.

 

If this was perhaps later into the Autumn I would be thinking about a sting jet in the red circled area.

 

At this range most models are slightly disagreeing.

 

Something to watch for but the chances are remote as modelling is bound to change between now and system arrival.

 

Some steep mid level laspe rates around the system could prove interesting fro thunderstorm lovers.

 

My thoughts at the moment are that the modelling will be slightly off. Firstly because the warm air in the ex hurricane is likely to speed up the jet a little more than expected and secondly because there apepars to be a long feed into the system and lastly because its a little early in the year for it to really develop.