eastern pacific Hurricane Lowell

[Somerset Squall]

The twelfth tropical depression of the season has formed, well southwest of the south coast of Mexico, a few hundred miles west-southwest of Socorro Island. 12E has winds of 30kts. The depression is quite broad, with only a small amount of convection over the LLCC, and large, sprawling bands. Because of the broad structure of the depression, strengthening should be quite slow, despite the favourable environment. 12E should push west over the next day, before turning quite sharply north as a trough erodes the ridging to the north, allowing 12E to turn into the weakness.

[Somerset Squall]

12E has intensified, and has become Tropical Storm Lowell, with winds of 45kts. Convection has built closer the the centre of Lowell today, though the system is still quite broad. Further strengthening is expected as Lowell heads northwards in moderate shear and warm water. Increased shear and cooler sea temps will induce weakenning in a couple days.

[Somerset Squall]

Lowell has slowly strengthened, with winds now at 55kts. The storm remains large, with a thick, curved band wrapping fully around the LLCC. Lowell could strengthen further over the next 24hrs whilst it remains over warm water and reletively low shear. After this, the track takes Lowell over cooler waters, which will bring about a steady weakening trend.

 

Edited August 20, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Lowell has strengthened a little more, with winds now at 60kts. Lowell has developed a very large eye, with deep convection wrapped around the southern and eastern quadrants and thinner, less deep convection to the northwest. Lowell could become a hurricane later today, but as the storm will be moving over cooler water thereafter, the window of opportunity for this to occur is small.

[Somerset Squall]

Lowell became the seventh hurricane of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season this afternoon. Winds remain at 65kts this evening. Lowell maintains a very large eye. Convection is weakening around the eyewall, probably a result of cooling sea temps. Lowell should weaken from hereonin.

Edited August 22, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

There is very little convection left with the large circulation of Lowell this morning. Winds have decreased to 40kts. Remnant low status is expected in about 24hrs. The large remnant low will take several days to spin down however as it veers westwards.

[Somerset Squall]

Lowell has degenerated into a remnant low, as there remains very little convection associated with the system.