Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Hurricane season predictions


damianslaw
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    I suspect there may be a thread in the science threads, but wonder if anyone has any forecasts predictions for this year's hurricane season - which has already started.

     

    Recent years I believe have seen relatively low activity. There are theories that an active season can be one factor which increases chances of a colder winter as it tends to allow warm SST's to move into central mid atlantic creating a base state for the 'tripole' aided a negative NAO -

     

    2005 saw a very active season - the following winter saw a negative NAO.

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 4
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I suspect there may be a thread in the science threads, but wonder if anyone has any forecasts predictions for this year's hurricane season - which has already started.

     

    Recent years I believe have seen relatively low activity. There are theories that an active season can be one factor which increases chances of a colder winter as it tends to allow warm SST's to move into central mid atlantic creating a base state for the 'tripole' aided a negative NAO -

     

    2005 saw a very active season - the following winter saw a negative NAO.

     

     

    Are we talking about a colder Winter here?

    If so, there was a programme on not long ago which had a piece about links from active hurricane seasons to stormy Winter conditions our way further down the line. The cold waters brought to the surface by the hurricanes warm very quickly, generating more energy for follow-on hurricanes, the warmer water that is sent to the deeper part of the ocean makes it's way further north which eventually ends up in the atmosphere. That warmer water coupled with the Arctic ice melt  may have been a big factor in the colossal temperature differences- enabling the storms which we saw.

    Edited by Mapantz
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    the 60s had low hurricane activity in what was a cold decade,so id be inclined to think a less active hurricane season leds to a better chance of a colder winter.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Higher ACE values are correlated to a -AO the following winter due to Ozone and wave transport however its not a very strong correlation compared to say October snow growth.

    The hurricane season to date is below average but not exceptionally so.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    the 60s had low hurricane activity in what was a cold decade,so id be inclined to think a less active hurricane season leds to a better chance of a colder winter.

    61, 64 and 69 were above average overall in ACE.
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...