Hurricane season predictions

[damianslaw]

I suspect there may be a thread in the science threads, but wonder if anyone has any forecasts predictions for this year's hurricane season - which has already started.

 

Recent years I believe have seen relatively low activity. There are theories that an active season can be one factor which increases chances of a colder winter as it tends to allow warm SST's to move into central mid atlantic creating a base state for the 'tripole' aided a negative NAO -

 

2005 saw a very active season - the following winter saw a negative NAO.

 

 

[Mapantz]

I suspect there may be a thread in the science threads, but wonder if anyone has any forecasts predictions for this year's hurricane season - which has already started.

 

Recent years I believe have seen relatively low activity. There are theories that an active season can be one factor which increases chances of a colder winter as it tends to allow warm SST's to move into central mid atlantic creating a base state for the 'tripole' aided a negative NAO -

 

2005 saw a very active season - the following winter saw a negative NAO.

 

 

Are we talking about a colder Winter here?

If so, there was a programme on not long ago which had a piece about links from active hurricane seasons to stormy Winter conditions our way further down the line. The cold waters brought to the surface by the hurricanes warm very quickly, generating more energy for follow-on hurricanes, the warmer water that is sent to the deeper part of the ocean makes it's way further north which eventually ends up in the atmosphere. That warmer water coupled with the Arctic ice melt  may have been a big factor in the colossal temperature differences- enabling the storms which we saw.

Edited August 21, 2014 by Mapantz

[sundog]

the 60s had low hurricane activity in what was a cold decade,so id be inclined to think a less active hurricane season leds to a better chance of a colder winter.

[summer blizzard]

Higher ACE values are correlated to a -AO the following winter due to Ozone and wave transport however its not a very strong correlation compared to say October snow growth.

The hurricane season to date is below average but not exceptionally so.

[summer blizzard]

the 60s had low hurricane activity in what was a cold decade,so id be inclined to think a less active hurricane season leds to a better chance of a colder winter.

61, 64 and 69 were above average overall in ACE.