September 2014 CET forecasts

[Methuselah]

Another guess: 14.2, please...

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Warm 14.4

[stewfox]

CET averages and extremes for September

 

 

 

14.3 ... average 2001-2013

14.0 ... average 1981-2010

13.7 ... average 1971-2000, 2013 CET

13.6 ... average 1961-1990

13.5 ... average 1701-1800, 1901-2000

13.3 ... average 1659-2013

13.1 ... average 1801-1900

13.0 .. 2012 CET

12.6 ... average 1659-1700

 

 

 

Interesting how September has warmed over the years

 

based on that evidence going for 13.3c

[Captain Shortwave]

Well I was going to go for a near average month, but the models are suggesting a potentially prolonged spell of dry weather with temperatures well above average, ECM ens show high pressure just east of the UK for the first 5 days so perfectly place for very warm if not even hot weather. So going to be bold and go for 15.5C. Expect the first half to be pushing for a high summer CET before a cool off in the second half.

Edited August 26, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer of 95]

15.7 for me. September warmer than August

[sundog]

13.2c for me please,warm first half,much colder second half.

[stewfox]

Interesting how September has warmed over the years

 

based on that evidence going for 13.3c

 

 

Can I change to 14.7c please , likely to be a warm start

Edited August 27, 2014 by stewfox

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15.2C, hot start

[Roger J Smith]

16.1 C as it looks very blocked and Biscay-Med SSTs are high. September blocks can be very persistent.

[DR(S)NO]

14.9c please....a very pleasant start to Autumn...especially for the southern half of the UK

[Don]

16.1 C as it looks very blocked and Biscay-Med SSTs are high. September blocks can be very persistent.

 

Hi Roger

 

This is one for the seasonal thread, but do you have any early thoughts for late Autumn and Winter?  I know it's still August but you had some early thoughts this time last year which turned out to be pretty close to the mark!

[Methuselah]

Another guess: 14.2, please...

Having perused the latest model runs, I'm going to upgrade by guess to 15.2...

[jonboy]

14.4 for me please

[Milhouse]

Hard one to call. Im going to say 15c.

[cheeky_monkey]

16.8c for me dry warm and sunny from start to finish.

[Weather-history]

14.6C

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.6.

[seabreeze86]

14.2 for me

[Thundery wintry showers]

14.8C.  Warm days may well be partially offset by chilly nights.

[Dancerwithwings]

14.8C.  Warm days may well be partially offset by chilly nights.

Yes the nights are getting longer and with clear skies.... like you said "chilly nights"

 

But in all sept looks like atm in being a fine & warmer than avg month

 

So for me it's 14.5c

[Midlands Ice Age]

I'm going for 14.1C

Warmish to start off with ,but cooling down.

 

MIA

[Norrance]

14.5C please.

[DR Hosking]

it will be 14.0c

[damianslaw]

Mmm many got caught out by August, when the models and signs were all pointing to a warmer than average month, in September a lot more change can happen from the start of the month and the end.. so I wouldn't be so confident calling an above average month.

 

There is a signal for a cool phase before middle of the month with a propensity for strong heights to the NW - not a warm signal for September.

 

I will go for 13.5 degrees, a warm/locally very warm start but turning much cooler by mid month with average conditions thereafter. Possibly quite a dry month overall, with a weakfish atlantic.

[virtualsphere]

15.1C for me please.