September 2014 CET forecasts

[damianslaw]

Relative to the mean, its been a fairly average first half to September with cool minima cancelling out consistently above average maxima, however, as we move into the second half of the month, at least later next week, much milder minima and also maxima should send the CET appreciably above the average, and I can't see values returning near to normal before the months end even if we see a northerly plunge. So another above average month looks very likely and most probably another appreciably above average month - August may end up looking an odd month out, at the mercy of one feature - Hurricane Bertha.

 

We have been locked into lengthy periods of similar synoptics - Oct 2013 - March 2014 a period where the atlantic dominated and westerlies reigned supreme, since April 2014 generally anticyclonic conditions have ruled the roost - with an influence from between north and south east, if the propensity for heights to stick to the NE continue through the rest of the year - the tables will turn and the CET values Nov and Dec would be very low, alas we could see a switch next month to the next lengthy period of similar synoptics i.e.the return of the atlantic , mmm very much reminiscent of conditions in the 90's and 00's.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sept so far feels warmer than Aug, even if not mathmatically speaking, could it end up warmer than Aug? certainly look like drawing hot air up from the south around wed/thur

[damianslaw]

Sept so far feels warmer than Aug, even if not mathmatically speaking, could it end up warmer than Aug? certainly look like drawing hot air up from the south around wed/thur

 

 

Can occur, Sept 2006 being a case in point, but it is quite rare for September to be warmer than August I would have thought - anyone got any stats? I think we have seen a number of Septembers warmer than the preceding June though.

 

We've a long way to go, but if the atlantic doesn't manage to make inroads this month and we see south - east airstream dominating, then it will be the fifth year to produce a month dominated by airstreams from between NE and South(in the main)  these being Dec 2010, April 2011, March 2012, March 2013, all very abnormal months with either extreme cold or extreme warmth.

Edited September 13, 2014 by damianslaw

[reef]

Relative to the mean, its been a fairly average first half to September with cool minima cancelling out consistently above average maxima, however, as we move into the second half of the month, at least later next week, much milder minima and also maxima should send the CET appreciably above the average, and I can't see values returning near to normal before the months end even if we see a northerly plunge. So another above average month looks very likely and most probably another appreciably above average month - August may end up looking an odd month out, at the mercy of one feature - Hurricane Bertha.

 

We have been locked into lengthy periods of similar synoptics - Oct 2013 - March 2014 a period where the atlantic dominated and westerlies reigned supreme, since April 2014 generally anticyclonic conditions have ruled the roost - with an influence from between north and south east, if the propensity for heights to stick to the NE continue through the rest of the year - the tables will turn and the CET values Nov and Dec would be very low, alas we could see a switch next month to the next lengthy period of similar synoptics i.e.the return of the atlantic , mmm very much reminiscent of conditions in the 90's and 00's.

Yes, its been pretty much constant easterlies since March now. The only break ironically was August. Its meant its been a pretty warm and cloudy year here.

 

The annoying thing is, you just know when winter arrives it will switch back to constant westerlies again!

[Weather-history]

Can occur, Sept 2006 being a case in point, but it is quite rare for September to be warmer than August I would have thought - anyone got any stats?

It is. I think maybe 6 or 7 occasions.

In 1890, September was the warmest month of that year! The only occasion it has happened for the CET.

[Scorcher]

It could well end up above 15C at the month end if tonight's charts are anything to go by, there will be some high minima over the next week and temperatures should rise by day from midweek onwards- no real sign of anything cooler in the offing either.

[Summer Sun]

No update from Hadley so far today

[Summer Sun]

15.1c to the 14th

 

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

15.1c to the 15th

 

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

15.2c to the 16th

 

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.7c 1C above normal.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 15.4c to the 17th

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

The CET doesn't truly reflect the feel of how warm this month has been so far, despite the mild maxima, minima have been much closer to average, indeed a little below until recent nights, pegging the CET down more.

 

BBC said it has been 2 degrees above normal so far- I think this is based on average maxima, rather than the mean.

 

Too early to make a proper educated guess what the finishing figure will be, but something above 15 degrees looks highly likely, perhaps the low 15's rather than the mid-high 15's, as the trend will be for nearer average normal temps as we move through next week. The warmest since 2006 very likely but nowhere near the extraordinary values of that abnormal month.

[hillbilly]

Just come across info on September 1919 which gave the warmest day of the year on the 11th at 32.4 deg yet by the 19th snow cover reached high ground in England ,even Dartmoor.It was followed by one of the coldest Octobers and the coldest November !!!!

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 15.5c to the 18th

 

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[TonyH]

The CET doesn't truly reflect the feel of how warm this month has been so far, despite the mild maxima, minima have been much closer to average, indeed a little below until recent nights, pegging the CET down more. 

 

BBC said it has been 2 degrees above normal so far- I think this is based on average maxima, rather than the mean.

 

Too early to make a proper educated guess what the finishing figure will be, but something above 15 degrees looks highly likely, perhaps the low 15's rather than the mid-high 15's, as the trend will be for nearer average normal temps as we move through next week. The warmest since 2006 very likely but nowhere near the extraordinary values of that abnormal month.

Extraordinary for mean max here which is on 21.0c to date and virtually unheard of hereabouts for this stage in September, slightly higher than this point in Sept 2006,  but then we have been the most favoured area for fine warm weather this month with no rain at all as yet either! Mean minima catching up towards the average after a decidedly cool first half, current mean minima on 7.8c.

Just come across info on September 1919 which gave the warmest day of the year on the 11th at 32.4 deg yet by the 19th snow cover reached high ground in England ,even Dartmoor.It was followed by one of the coldest Octobers and the coldest November !!!!

Link please?

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 15.6c to the 19th

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[summer blizzard]

Minima don't look excessive from the synoptics being shown from the Euro and GFS at the moment so i suspect the people in the 14.5-15C zone will be happy after corrections.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 14.8C should be a drop tomorrow after today's cold day and fairly notable one if the night is cold as well.

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 20th

 

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another September passes by that will come out above average.  September has been one of the most notably warm months of the year throughout the last 20 years with many years seeing above average September temperatures with some notably warm ones.  On a handful of occasions we have been around the 1961-90 average and in the last 20 years only Sept 2012 saw the CET finish more than 0.5*C below the 61-90 mean though not by much.  It makes you wonder if we will ever see a cool September again.

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 21st

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 14.5C very dry as well.

[Weather-history]

It makes you wonder if we will ever see a cool September again.

That is what you use to say about April.

Sadly another ill thought out comment and nothing has been learnt.

If August can return a below average month as it did this year then obviously September can. The month of September is a human invention after all, Mother Nature is not bounded by calendar months, she will do what she will do, hence late September 2011 heatwave, late March 2013 freeze.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

The trend is for warmer than average but of course like March 2013, there will be anomalies.

I'm certain though that summers like 2013 and 2014 and springs like 2007 and 2011 and 2014 will be typical this century.

It will take a brave person to bet against it.

Edited September 22, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see