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September 2014 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Looks like a finish around +1c then, pretty mild.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Can anybody calculate to the end of the month?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Can anybody calculate to the end of the month?

 

GW on TWO is expecting it to finish close to 15c

 

 

If we do come in at 15.0C for September this will mean that 2014 is still on course for possibly the warmest annual CET on record despite the cold August.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 14.3 can't see it altering much from that value. Can't see CET being much different from what it is now either.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Agreed that CET probably won't change much now to end of month.

 

Warmest I could foresee is average of 16.5 now to 30th which gives 15.5 before corrections.

 

Coldest would be 14.5 now to 30th which gives 15.1 before corrections.

 

This suggests 15.3 before corrections most likely and 15.2 end of month as I have not seen many days that shout out for revisions.

 

14.9 to 15.5 is where you want to be.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Hmm should have stood by my early thoughts that September would be very warm (15C+) before changing my mind at the last minute......

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 13.0C, while maxima look like reaching the high 19s, so an increase to 15.2C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

15.2C to the 27th (15.1)

15.2C to the 28th (16.6)

15.3C to the 29th (17.3)

15.3C to the 30th (16.0)

 

I reckon 15.2-15.4C before corrections, and 14.8C to 15.3C after. Even an outside chance of being the joint 10th warmest September on record (15.3C)

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 7.3C (much cooler than the GFS predicted yesterday), and maxima are likely to reach the mid 19s, we should remain on 15.1C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

15.2C to the 28th (17.9)

15.2C to the 29th (17.2)

15.3C to the 30th (16.6)

 

The likely finishing range is the same as yesterday, but with a slightly better chance of finishing on 15.2 or 15.3C, rather than 15.4C, before corrections.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

It will be close as to whether September finishes on 15.0c or higher. If it does then that will make 6 out of 9 months so far 1c or more above average.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

It'll be interesting to see the Metoffice anomaly charts this month as we're exactly on the 1981-2010 average here at the moment (14.4C). Western areas on the other hand look to have had quite a warm, sunny month.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Well it's not going to get any lower now.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

What a difference between August and September pattern. August was a very northerly month and low pressure dominated. September has been very anticylonic and easterly away from the far NW. Reminds me of the August - September 1995 pattern, but the other way around!

 

Today was very mild in the CET area, so expect a rise in the CET tomorrow, tomorrow and Tuesday will be mild as well, so good chance now we will end up warmer than August but only just. I suspect 15 degrees will be the finishing mark with downward corrections, but could be 15.1 degrees.

 

Yet another month that has caught be out big time.. I really hadn't expected such a dry blocked month from end to end. Ones of those 'abnormal' months..

 

Looking forward to October now, September is my least favourite month weatherwise. October has an air of anticipation about it, September just slumbers..

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Very interesting contrast between June and September, June came in at 15.1C and September might just beat that or equal it, June's 850's weren't nothing to write home about but show how much the long days/powerful sun affect the temperatures whilst September warmth is more because of more humid airmasses and not long days.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

What a difference between August and September pattern. August was a very northerly month and low pressure dominated. September has been very anticylonic and easterly away from the far NW. Reminds me of the August - September 1995 pattern, but the other way around!

 

Today was very mild in the CET area, so expect a rise in the CET tomorrow, tomorrow and Tuesday will be mild as well, so good chance now we will end up warmer than August but only just. I suspect 15 degrees will be the finishing mark with downward corrections, but could be 15.1 degrees.

 

Yet another month that has caught be out big time.. I really hadn't expected such a dry blocked month from end to end. Ones of those 'abnormal' months..

 

Looking forward to October now, September is my least favourite month weatherwise. October has an air of anticipation about it, September just slumbers..

The closest August-September pair to the 2014 one I could think would be the 1941 August-September pair. Both have cool wet August followed by a warmer drier September.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

15.1c to the 29th

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

GW over at TWO is going for a final figure of 14.94c

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

The closest August-September pair to the 2014 one I could think would be the 1941 August-September pair. Both have cool wet August followed by a warmer drier September.

 

A more extreme example could be 2006 perhaps? When you consider that July was warm this year, although nowhere near to the extent of 2006 of course.

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