September 2014 CET forecasts

[Weather-history]

A more extreme example could be 2006 perhaps? When you consider that July was warm this year, although nowhere near to the extent of 2006 of course.

September 2006 wasn't a dry month though.

An extreme case would be 1865. That was a cool wet August followed by a very dry and very warm September. The differences between the two months were remarkable.

Edited September 30, 2014 by Weather-history

[Scorcher]

September 2006 wasn't a dry month though.

An extreme case would be 1865. That was a cool wet August followed by a very dry and very warm September. The differences between the two months were remarkable.

 

Yes true, I was thinking more specifically about temperature, hadn't factored rainfall in that much.

[Timmytour]

Quite a warm day today and it was warm overnight across the CET zone- I wonder if it might rise to 15.2C before corrections.

Earlier this morning the Met was tweeting that this was the 4th warmest September since 1910.  Taking into consideration 1929 was at 15.3 and was the 4th warmest in the same period. does that indicate a final CET of between 15.3 and 15.6  (1999) ?

[AderynCoch]

Earlier this morning the Met was tweeting that this was the 4th warmest September since 1910.  Taking into consideration 1929 was at 15.3 and was the 4th warmest in the same period. does that indicate a final CET of between 15.3 and 15.6  (1999) ?

Probably referring to the UK average rather than the CET.

[chubbyfan]

its been a lovely warm September, like having some bonus extra summer.

 

it feels like it should be in the top5 warm Septembers of the last 100 years plus.

Edited October 1, 2014 by chubbyfan

[Weather-history]

Probably referring to the UK average rather than the CET.

Yes, as soon as the Met Office talks about records since 1910, they are definitely not referring to the CET.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Most of the finalised data has been updated, apart from the 30th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

Looks very much like September will finish on 15.1C. This isn't official yet though.

Edited October 1, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[Don]

Most of the finalised data has been updated, apart from the 30th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

Looks very much like September will finish on 15.1C. This isn't official yet though.

 

On a par with 2011 then.  Knew I should have stuck with my initial thoughts of 15C+ for September!

[Summer Sun]

Final CET for September is.............. -327.7 which is -341.3 below average

 

Think Hadley has a data problem still for September's CET

[jonboy]

 

Final CET for September is.............. -327.7 which is -341.3 below average

 

Think Hadley has a data problem still for September's CET

 

Wow -341.3 below average bet no one quessed that!!

Edited October 2, 2014 by jonboy

[summer blizzard]

Simple maths suggest the actual CET will be 13.6C... though that is obviously wrong. Hmmm.. 14.6 perhaps.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Simple maths suggest the actual CET will be 13.6C... though that is obviously wrong. Hmmm.. 14.6 perhaps.

 

Using the finalised daily data, the CET was at 15.05C to the 29th. The provisional value for the 30th is 16.0C (only one previous day during the month saw a downward correction of greater than 0.9C) so it's likely that the final value for the 30th will be higher than 15.0C leaving the final monthly value at 15.1C.

[summer blizzard]

Using the finalised daily data, the CET was at 15.05C to the 29th. The provisional value for the 30th is 16.0C (only one previous day during the month saw a downward correction of greater than 0.9C) so it's likely that the final value for the 30th will be higher than 15.0C leaving the final monthly value at 15.1C.

 

Won't we expect corrections afterward?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Won't we expect corrections afterward?

 

I'm talking about the finalised data that already includes the downward correction, which you can see here. You can compare it to the provisional data, here

[Summer Sun]

Hadley now confirmed at 15.1c

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

8 out of 9 months 1.0c or more above the 61 to 90 average with only August below average so far by 0.8c

[Weather-history]

September warmer than August. Not many of them in the records.

[Scorcher]

Hadley now confirmed at 15.1c

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

8 out of 9 months 1.0c or more above the 61 to 90 average with only August below average so far by 0.8c

 

As I thought with 2 weeks to go, the month has finished above 15C- many were expecting a fall towards the 14C mark, but it just shows what a warm last fortnight it was.

[BornFromTheVoid]

With September at 15.1C, it also means the the next 3 months need to average 1C above the 81-10 average to achieve the warmest year on record. This has been achieved just 3 times in the last 20 years, 2011, 2006 and 1994.

[matty007]

With September at 15.1C, it also means the the next 3 months need to average 1C above the 81-10 average to achieve the warmest year on record. This has been achieved just 3 times in the last 20 years, 2011, 2006 and 1994.

 

Can't see this month ending 1c above average. Obviously can't say for November and December. 

 

I think this year will finish just behind 2006 and about bang on with 2011. 

[J10]

Scores now Complied and 1 player got it spot on this month, well done to virtualsphere

 

6 players were 0.1c out weatherguru14, Milhouse, Stargazer, IrememberAtlantic252, Rybris Ponce and coram

 

Seasonally the top 6 are in the order above.

 

Overall only 2 months to go and no change in the top 3,

 

reef (1)

 

The PIT (2)

 

Thundery wintry showers (3)

 

reef has now has extended their lead.

 

Sept 2014 CET.pdf Sept 2014 CET.xls

 

 

Edited October 2, 2014 by J10

[virtualsphere]

Thanks J10.

 

Not done so well this year until now, so good to get a direct hit!