eastern pacific Major Hurricane Marie

[Somerset Squall]

The thirteenth tropical depression of the season has formed a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. The depression has winds of 30kts, increasing convection over the LLCC, and convective banding features wrapping towards the centre. 13E is expected to head west-northwestwards over the next several days, as ridging to the north over Mexico remains in control of the cyclone. This track keeps 13E away from the coast of Mexico. Which is just as well really, as the depression is expected to become a potent hurricane. The environment is highly favourable, with low shear, increasing outflow and very warm waters along track. Barring any surprises re. shear, 13E should strengthen throughout the next 5 days. With such a favourable environment persisting for so long, this cyclone could become a biggie. NHC forecast 13E to become a 95kt cat 2 hurricane in 5 days, which is quite aggressive for a first forecast. 13E could in fact become a lot stronger than this, which some models have been eluding to.

[Somerset Squall]

13E appears to already be rapidly intensifying. A circular ring of convection completely encircles the tight LLCC, which is flanked by increasingly strong banding. Winds are up to 40kts, and 13E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Marie. Marie could become a hurricane as early as tonight if current trends continue.

[mezzacyclone]

13E appears to already be rapidly intensifying. A circular ring of convection completely encircles the tight LLCC, which is flanked by increasingly strong banding. Winds are up to 40kts, and 13E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Marie. Marie could become a hurricane as early as tonight if current trends continue.

wow, If only the Atlantic could be as favorable as the EPac?

But Baja may be keeping a close eye on this one?

[knocker]

GFS 12z forecasts Hurricane Marie at 944 mb in 96-hours (next Tuesday) ... NHC upped intensity max to 110-knots. pic.twitter.com/lvhVsGErRy

[Somerset Squall]

Marie's winds are up to 50kts. There isn't much more to say really. NHC forecast a peak of 115kts. A fair estimate, but Marie could get stronger than this.

wow, If only the Atlantic could be as favorable as the EPac?

But Baja may be keeping a close eye on this one?

 

I suspect they are monitoring it Mezza, but Marie looks like it will remain far southwest of Baja. May enhance rainfall here though, as Marie is expected to become quite a large hurricane.

 

 

Edited August 22, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

In a little over 24hrs since formation, Marie has become a hurricane, with winds now at 65kts. Marie has a solid central dense overcast, flanked by excellent banding features. Marie should continue to intensify quickly, with rapid intensification more likely to occur than not. Marie is forecast to be near major hurricane strength by the end of today, and then reach cat 4 status soon thereafter.

[Gray-Wolf]

If big then the rain bands might bring some relief to SoCal then?

[Somerset Squall]

Marie has continued to rapidly intensify. A distinct eye has emerged from very cold central dense overcast. Winds are up to 115kts, making Marie a category 4 major hurricane, the fifth major hurricane of the East Pacific season (sixth if you group together the east and central pacific).

Marie has intensified from 30kts to 115kts in 48hrs, a seriously impressive round on rapid intensification.

Marie has got about another 2 days of warm waters and low shear. Therefore, further strengthening appears likely, with possible fluctuations due to eyewall replacemrnt cycles. After this, Marie will he moving into much colder waters, the same waters that were responsible for the death of Lowell. This will bring about a quick weakening, with NHC forecasting Marie to degenerate into a gale force remnant low in 5 days time.

Edited August 24, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Sainsbo]

It's a beauty to look at.

 

 

 

 

Model intensity guidance looks interesting. Although an outlier, one of them expects a peak at aroung 165kts! (190mph). About 40% of them take it to Cat. 5 territory.

 

Edited August 24, 2014 by Sainsbo

[summer blizzard]

Now 150mph, forecast to reach 160mph. 

 

Amazing storm.

[Gael_Force]

Now 150mph, forecast to reach 160mph. 

 

Amazing storm.

 

140 kts - she's there.

 

7.0 / 917.7mb/140.0kt

 

Beautiful presentation too.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Amazing shot of Karina, Lowell and Marie there. Awaiting the NHC advisory, but Marie looks to be a cat 5!

[Boro Snow]

yep she has now reached 160mph and is now cat 5, the sat images are amazing 

[Vorticity0123]

140 kts - she's there.

 

7.0 / 917.7mb/140.0kt

 

Beautiful presentation too.

 

 

Beautiful image! It really nicely shows a very nice size comparison of Ex-Lowell, Karina and Marie. Also note the extent over which the southern banding feature associated with Marie is located, really impressive to see!

 

Latest Dvorak imagery of Marie (as of 20:30 UTC, note that the image auto-updates itself) shows that Marie has likely peaked in intensity, as some elongation is showing up in the convection east-west (in other words: the deep convection is on the thin side north-south, and rather thick east-west). Nevertheless, it remains a very impressive system, which, fortunately, won't impact any land directly.

 

Visible satellite image of Marie

 

On MIMIC TC-imagery, the development of Marie can also be nicely seen, with the complete eyewall becoming established, filling up the northern side during the past 24 hours. Furthermore, the slight elongation east-west is also visible in this imagery in the later timeframes.

 

MIMIC TC imagery of Marie, displaying microwave imagery of the cyclone during the past 24 hours (Note: the image auto-updates itself).

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13E/13E_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_13E/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

Edited August 24, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[Somerset Squall]

Marie peaked at 140kts, and was the first cat 5 in the Eastern Pacific since Celia in 2010. Marie has lost cat 5 status, with winds down to 125kts, still a strong cat 4. An eyewall replacement cycle is to blame, and this will likely govern any intensity changes in the next 24hrs. Weakening will occur therefter, as Marie moves over colder waters and into a drier, more stable airmass.

[Somerset Squall]

Marie is still undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Winds are down to 115kts. Marie is not far from cooler waters, so restrengthening is not expected.

 

An image of the basin, showing Marie's very impressive size, and tiny TD Karina to the west:

 

[Somerset Squall]

Marie has steadily weakened over the last couple of days. Winds are down to 65kts. As Marie is over colder waters, continued weakening is expected, with remnant low status expected in 36hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Marie has degenerated into a remnant low as the system has been devoid of deep convection for a while now. The remnant low should continue to spin down over the next couple of days as it drifts generally westwards over cold waters west of California.