iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[lorenzo]

By popular demand a new thread for monitoring of Bárðarbunga following the outbreak of activity which began c.15 August.

 

 

Useful Links

 

Main Volcanic Activity Thread - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62309-general-volcanic-activity-thread/

 

Iceland Met Office

 

Earthquakes -       http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes

Scientific Updates - http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947

Seismometer Map - http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/tremor.html

Tremor Plots -         http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/allarsort.html

 

3D Earthquake Activity - http://baering.github.io/

USGS Monitoring - http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/?source=sitenav

 

Bárðarbunga cam 1 - http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga

Bárðarbunga cam 2 - http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

Kverkfjoll cam -          http://vedur2.mogt.is/kverkfjoll/webcam/index.php

 

Some further images including an example image from the baering.github link of the plot, you can also rotate the plot via clicking, holding down then dragging it. Vertical view is good of Dyngju­jök­ull activity.

 

 

 

[J10]

pinned as requested.

[lorenzo]

Cheers

 

A good round up of this week / weekend events here http://www.mbl.is/frettir/knippi/3305/ Including the vid linked below.

 

Tremors and activity now in Dyngju­jök­ull - which if you are reading is pronounced like below.

 

[Buriedundersnow]

its still very interesting that we are seeing the northward motion of the quakes towards ASKJA as we progress and the main core moving out from under the glacier now this could be a good thing if we are looking for this to progress in a more timely fashion than a more slower progression as with the main activity moving clear of the glacier if we could see the ground open where there is no ice above it then it could melt the glacier then aiding the rupturing of the ground currently under the glacier with the removal of what is undoubtedly helping to keep the ground stable with the added weight and pressure on the surface in these areas.

 

I am not sure how long in length fissure eruptions can be maybe someone with a bit more knowledge can tell me but I would assume it can go quite a large distance dependant on the scale of how much of the fissure is destabalized also worth noting which could make this eruption worse is it seems to be in the line of area where we would see flood water from the glacier now if the fissure was to open in this area then the added water from glacial melt would interact with the magma and create a more explosive eruption which could add to the strain on the fissure itself and could well cause a larger area to open as would be the case with no water interaction.

 

this is going to be a very interesting watch and could well fade away with nothing but it also has the scope to turn into something pretty big and that would be a worry not only for Iceland and airlines but for us also as with fissure eruptions a lot of the poisonous gases that will come from the eruption would stay at the surface instead of being ejected to great height similar to the LAKI and this could be really dangerous if it floats around as this stuff could burn your lungs if inhaled and can even burn or melt your skin on contact as well and if we look at the fact LAKI killed over 1 million people in the 1700's things could get really messy here and one eye kept on the weather forecasts might also be a good idea incase things do take a worse case scenario type of situation.

[john pike]

http://www.ruv.is/frett/dike-intrusion-now-north-of-dyngjujokull

[swebby]

 

By popular demand a new thread for monitoring of Bárðarbunga following the outbreak of activity which began c.15 August

 

 

pinned as requested.

 

Thanks Lorenzo/J10

 

Now we have a dedicated thread, the activity will no doubt drop off and it will end up being a damp squib.  In some respects that may not be a bad thing.  As fascinating as it is to behold the destructive power of our planet, the geological history of this volcano suggests it may have the potential to deliver disruptive and widespread consequences.

[swebby]

I am not sure how long in length fissure eruptions can be maybe someone with a bit more knowledge can tell me but I would assume it can go quite a large distance dependant on the scale of how much of the fissure is destabalized also worth noting which could make this eruption worse is it seems to be in the line of area where we would see flood water from the glacier now if the fissure was to open in this area then the added water from glacial melt would interact with the magma and create a more explosive eruption which could add to the strain on the fissure itself and could well cause a larger area to open as would be the case with no water interaction.

 

this is going to be a very interesting watch and could well fade away with nothing but it also has the scope to turn into something pretty big and that would be a worry not only for Iceland and airlines but for us also as with fissure eruptions a lot of the poisonous gases that will come from the eruption would stay at the surface instead of being ejected to great height similar to the LAKI and this could be really dangerous if it floats around as this stuff could burn your lungs if inhaled and can even burn or melt your skin on contact as well and if we look at the fact LAKI killed over 1 million people in the 1700's things could get really messy here and one eye kept on the weather forecasts might also be a good idea incase things do take a worse case scenario type of situation.

 

I'm most certainly not someone that would be classed as knowledgeable on such things but a scan of the internet states the Laki system is around 25km in length so I guess that may be a useful guide.

 

http://www.vatnajokulsthjodgardur.is/english/destinations/laki/

 

http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/oldroot/volcanoes/volc_images/europe_west_asia/laki.html

 

As you say, anything approaching the scale of the Laki 1783 eruption would be something of immensely serious concern, but such events are thankfully rare.

[etched Chaos]

Just had a 2.8 and a 3.1 at 1.1km on the github site. Seems it's not slowing down, at all.

Edited August 24, 2014 by etched Chaos

[john pike]

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=396709

M 4.9 - ICELAND - 2014-08-24 20:39:17 UTC

Edited August 24, 2014 by john pike

[Buriedundersnow]

Earthquakes Tsunamis â€@NewEarthquake 46s

5.3 earthquake, 108km WNW of Hofn, Iceland. Aug 24 20:39 at epicenter (18m ago, depth 6km). http://j.mp/XKqd9t

[Buriedundersnow]

Gisli Olafsson â€@gislio 1m

Two leading scientists say there may be links between the #Bardarbunga and #Askja systems given current events

[john pike]

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/seismologist.php

I think the met office site for quakes must be struggling

The quake above from iceland should be registered

[etched Chaos]

Right, I'm a newbie at this volcano marlarkey, and am following the github site. Is the increase in quakes over 2.0 a sign of impending eruption or is it just the magma moving and not a precursor to something big? Because there's been a plethora of 2.0+'s on the site and they seem to be coming more rapidly.

[Allseasons-si]

Another interesting read

 

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardarbunga-nature-of-the-beast/

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Another interesting read

 

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardarbunga-nature-of-the-beast/

Superb link cheers

[Moomin71]

Right, I'm a newbie at this volcano marlarkey, and am following the github site. Is the increase in quakes over 2.0 a sign of impending eruption or is it just the magma moving and not a precursor to something big? Because there's been a plethora of 2.0+'s on the site and they seem to be coming more rapidly.

It seems to me that it could mean both just to give an awkward answer.  Its a while since I studied volcanology, groundwater is my specialist field in geology but having read the excellent article Allseasons-si gave the link to its coming back.  At the moment it seems that the M2.0s are indicative of magma moving, it is the direction of movement that is most interesting at present.  It seems the thought is that the link could be made with the Askia system and in essence the longer the M2.0s go on without any eruption the larger the eruption might be.  The M4 - 5 tremors are also interesting as they are indicative of caldera subsidence within the Bardabunga volcano.  Its all very interesting stuff at the moment.  I abandoned a trip with the land rover to this part of Iceland a few years ago, this area having long fascinated me, shame I didn't make it as much of it may be about to change over the next few months!

 

M

[Mark Bayley]

Right, I'm a newbie at this volcano marlarkey, and am following the github site. Is the increase in quakes over 2.0 a sign of impending eruption or is it just the magma moving and not a precursor to something big? Because there's been a plethora of 2.0+'s on the site and they seem to be coming more rapidly.

 

I'm nowhere near an expert on volcanoes but from what i can remember from one of my uni modules the injection of magma into the surrounding rock induces earthquakes through changes in pressure. Increased seismic activity is one of the main forecasting tools for predicting volcanic eruptions. Lots of volcanic activity, with increasing strength, is generally indicative that an eruption is likely to take place. As this volcano is sublglacial a large eruption is likely to inject a lot of ash into the atmosphere (e.g. like the 2010 eruption).

Edited August 24, 2014 by Mark Bayley

[john pike]

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2949

Where this ends up remains to be seen

The interest is still whether baraobunga either erupts

Or collapses which im thinking the latter looks more likely

The question re the smaller quakes

The smaller quakes mean less resistant where magma movement is concerned

Bear in my iceland has a lot of smaller quakes to relating to plate movement

The bigger quakes at the ones to keep watching. Especially the shallower ones as this is where

Pressure is more likely to be relesed and also ice quakes do happen too

All in all keep watching

Best bet follow the mo updates but keep watching the earthquake monitors as these are

Instant ,i would say follow the cams but thats if you can get on them

[john pike]

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/bardarbunga/seismic-crisis-2014/updates.html

I use this for updates

[Buriedundersnow]

Dave McGarvie â€@subglacial 16m

#Bárðarbunga. The dyke is growing NNE nicely. Context: some fissures in Iceland are c.100 km long, and some Greenland dykes are 400 km long.

 

it doesn't say about this fissure but gives an idea of top end of what we may see.

 

I think 100 km would be top here I don't know why its talking about Greenland.

[Buriedundersnow]

Dave McGarvie @subglacial  Â·  36m

#Bárðarbunga There's an old basalt fissure eruption (Holuhraun) just NNE of new dyke. If new dyke meets old dyke, maybe the surface beckons?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Doesn't look as though much has changed overnight.  Still plenty of quakes and a number over M3 in the dyke, but most reasonably deep.

 

Number of quakes in the last 48 hours is really high almost 2,400 a few minutes ago (08:00 BST).

 

Looks as thought the caldera is settling a bit as the magma moves Northeast, I'm still amazed by the workings of tectonics and the volumes spoken of.

 

As far as a possible eruption is concerned, even the experts aren't sure, so we just wait and see.

 

Thanks to all the knowledgable people that have contributed here (I'm thinking of JP and others) making is a very useful place to come to find latest details

[BrickFielder]

 I am still trying to understand what is happening here but there does seem to be a little confusing information going on. Before I express any thoughts, understand that I am not a volcanologist and these are just amateur observations.

 

 Before I look at Bárðarbunga lets get a little background. First off it is thought that Iceland sits on top of a magma plume. This is a slightly contentious issue and it may be a result of the current plate lying on top of an older one and ridging down into the mantle causing melt. 

Which ever mechanism is correct it does seem hat there is a potential for a build up of magma below Iceland. The following graphs suggest that parts of Iceland have risen by 2.5 meters over a 15 to 20 year period.

This I think must be taken with a pinch of salt, due to post glacial uplift and certain plate twisting dynamics. The graph also show movement in regards to north and easterly movement. Some seem to think this is in relation to uplift of volcanoes, but really this is likely to be the result of the plates moving relative to each other.

Comparisons have been made to the Kefla fissures eruptions North of this area last century. Just because the magma intrusion into the fissures at Kefla initially caused a cauldera collapse does not necessarily mean the same will happen here. Before I go further perhaps we should look at what a fissure really is.

 

A fissure is the surface expression of a dyke, that is, an injection from the magma chamber or reservoir. In its simplest form a fissure is simply a extension fracture (mode I), meaning a crack developed at right angles to the direction of maximum principal tension. The opening of the fracture/dyke is encouraged by the overpressure of the fluid (magma) inside, and the opening occurs during a rifting event within a volcanic system.

 

The fissure zones can be seen on the following map.

 

Now I have covered some of the rudiments of the background lets have a look at a bit more detail.

 

I think rather than evidence of uplift that this is a sign of the fissure or fracture zone slipping and opening up as magma pours into the fracture and acts as a sort of grease.

 

Here I think we can see the fracture zone slipping and the magma intrusion into what appears to be a parallel fracture zone to the Bárðarbunga one. It looks to be extending north eastwards.  One question which comes to mind is why the fracture zone to the South East of Bárðarbunga is also not opening up. One suggestion has been that the Kefla eruptions caused compression in fracture zones south of it and as the rock cooled it has eventually released the compression. (That implies compression is occurring now both north and south of Bárðarbunga, so areas there might be interesting to monitor for uplift).

 

The harmonics show on the above graph I think show lava movement, mostly from out of Bárðarbunga into the fracture zone and not necessarily to the surface.

 

Looking at the earthquake information it looks to me like earthquakes associated with Bárðarbunga and its crater were a little deep (6km) to be associated with crater collapse. These may be associated with the pathway to the fracture opening up, but since they seem to be on the wrong side of the crater might actually indicate the dyke underneath Bárðarbunga opening up to let more lava in. I should note that since Saturday there have been some earthquakes at a shallower depth under Bárðarbunga (1.5 km) which could be interpreted as crater collapse or perhaps magma rising in Bárðarbunga.  Looking at the earthquakes in the fracture zone then these seem to be at a depth of 3km to 12km and seems to be moving north eastwards. I should note that there have been some shallower earthquakes (1-2km) towards the end of the fissure since Saturday.

 

My best guess is that there will be a fissure eruption towards the north east of Bárðarbunga, which may later be followed by an eruption at Bárðarbunga. In terms of timelines then I think we have to look at those for Kefla (20 years of eruptions on and off).  Once eruptions occur under the ice then there is a high risk of ash. I should also note that plate movements under Iceland may cause earthquakes elsewhere along plate boundaries (California , Turkey , Pakistan).

 

It is still too early to tell how this will play out, but hopefully this might be informative and set others to investigate and evaluate the facts for themselves and come up with a better understanding. (A worrying thought is that air travel may be disrupted on and off for a very long time)

Edited August 25, 2014 by BrickFielder

[john pike]

Thanks norfolk

I'm away at present so my main computer with all my full links for info I don't have. Plenty of good updates being put up here by others though (thanks) the askja link is v interesting and hopefully won't happen as won't be good. As you say still as we were at present

[Buzzit]

I think this is one of the best articles on the current situation and essential reading !

 

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardarbunga-nature-of-the-beast/